February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

[HVSnowLover]

GFS definitely has a bit of a different look this run dont think it will be favorable for our area except the far interior zones.

 

 

[NYCweatherNOW]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS definitely has a bit of a different look this run dont think it will be favorable for our area except the far interior zones.

 

 

Same crap. Clown maps have actually more frozen for the city 

[RU848789]

0Z GFS has more sleet for the 95 corridor than previous runs, but similar mass of frozen precip (snow + sleet), as per the TT map; Pivotal shows less snow, though and doesn't include sleet at all.  Soundings at 114 hours are clearly sleet for much of the 95 corridor with 850s at 33F and a fairly deep sub-32F layer below that.  Saw a lot of this kind of discrepancy for 11/15 and 1/20, also. 

 

[winterwx21]

Is anyone watching the first wave for sunday night into monday morning? 0z NAM and GGEM give southern NJ some decent snow accumulations. I wouldn't ignore this first wave, even though the tuesday storm has bigger potential. We just need a little trend north.

[RU848789]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Is anyone watching the first wave for sunday night into monday morning? 0z NAM and GGEM give southern NJ some decent snow accumulations. I wouldn't ignore this first wave, even though the tuesday storm has bigger potential. We just need a little trend north.

Looks like it's SE NJ's winter, lol - think I read that Cape May has more snow this winter than NYC and Boston combined...

[SnoSki14]

The run to run continuity on the Gfs is abysmal after 3 days. 

The first wave could surprise us as well.

[JustinRP37]

From Upton this evening regarding next week: basically let’s get closer before we get too excited for accumulating snow. 

Systems in the extended have trended warmer for much of
this winter and it is quite possible we are already seeing signs of
this occurring in the latest model runs. High pressure builds back
into the region for the end of the week

[SnowGoose69]

41 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Is anyone watching the first wave for sunday night into monday morning? 0z NAM and GGEM give southern NJ some decent snow accumulations. I wouldn't ignore this first wave, even though the tuesday storm has bigger potential. We just need a little trend north.

The NAM even gives NYC a shot at respectable snow.  The GFS looks like crap for mostly everyone on it 

[Eduardo]

Oddly narrow band of heavy rain traversing LI.  Anyone know what gave rise to it?  Radar signature almost resembles an outflow boundary akin to what we would see during the heart of sever season.

[sussexcountyobs]

So, seeing the lack of posts on the Euro 0Z run, I'm assuming it's a rainstorm? 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 36degs., or 2degs. AN.

EURO/GEFS are both about 4" for Tues.

[Ericjcrash]

23 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

So, seeing the lack of posts on the Euro 0Z run, I'm assuming it's a rainstorm? 

Per clown maps on weather.us it's actually a little bit better. General 4-6". Typical SWFE.

[Animal]

 6z 240 hour total snow accumulation map is best one in 3 weeks. Take time to prepare now

[the_other_guy]

6 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

From Upton this evening regarding next week: basically let’s get closer before we get too excited for accumulating snow. 

Systems in the extended have trended warmer for much of
this winter and it is quite possible we are already seeing signs of
this occurring in the latest model runs. High pressure builds back
into the region for the end of the week

Tough words of wisdom.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Tough words of wisdom.

Nothing to stop the primary in the Great Lakes from cutting with the strong -PNA/+AO pattern. The only options this winter have been cutter, hugger, or suppressed southern stream. The benchmark track continues to be elusive.

 

[Drz1111]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nothing to stop the primary in the Great Lakes from cutting with the strong -PNA/+AO pattern. The only options this winter have been cutter, hugger, or suppressed southern stream. The benchmark track continues to be elusive.

Bad post.  We’ve gotten plenty of moderate storms with bad indicies or teleconnections. It’s just random that we haven’t gotten a benchmark storm.

If you want to argue that the pattern hasn’t been conducive for KU storms, sure, but that’s not remotely the reason for the goose egg.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said:

Per clown maps on weather.us it's actually a little bit better. General 4-6". Typical SWFE.

Looks like a thump to some rain

Take anything you can I this pattern and hopefully the pattern gets better when it travels through 8.

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nothing to stop the primary in the Great Lakes from cutting with the strong -PNA/+AO pattern. The only options this winter have been cutter, hugger, or suppressed southern stream. The benchmark track continues to be elusive.

 

It's a cutter with development. The transfer is key.

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Bad post.  We’ve gotten plenty of moderate storms with bad indicies or teleconnections. It’s just random that we haven’t gotten a benchmark storm.

If you want to argue that the pattern hasn’t been conducive for KU storms, sure, but that’s not remotely the reason for the goose egg.

Who said anything about moderate storms? The coast will have p-type issues with such strong WAA aloft coupled with low level cold air with that Arctic high. Seasonal patterns matter until they change. That is why the blockbuster all heavy snow KU hasn’t happened for the coast yet this season. Maybe we can change the pattern enough to make that a possibility before the season is over.

 

[MJO812]

Just now, bluewave said:

Who said anything about moderate storms? The coast will have p-type issues with such strong WAA aloft coupled with low level cold air with that Arctic high. Seasonal patterns matter until they change. That is why the blockbuster all heavy snow KU hasn’t happened for the coast yet this season. Maybe we can change the pattern enough to make that a possibility before the season is over.

 

Looks like a classic snow to rain for next week's storm.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like a classic snow to rain for next week's storm.

We need more than that to reach normal seasonal snowfall for the season. Hopefully, we can get some improvements in the pattern before the season is over.

[MJO812]

Just now, bluewave said:

We need more than that to reach normal seasonal snowfall for the season. Hopefully, we can get some improvements in the pattern before the season is over.

Looks like a stormy pattern is going to develop. It's going to be tough to reach normal but 1 storm can do it for our area.

A little snow Monday and maybe a few inches before the rain on Wednesday.

[NittanyWx]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nothing to stop the primary in the Great Lakes from cutting with the strong -PNA/+AO pattern. The only options this winter have been cutter, hugger, or suppressed southern stream. The benchmark track continues to be elusive.

 

This is a cutter with secondary coastal development.  The Lakes piece is going to do some sort of cut no matter what.  Energy transfer to the coastal and cold air supply/wedge due to HP in eastern Canada to me are as important as the primary.  Some confluence helps here.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like a stormy pattern is going to develop. It's going to be tough to reach normal but 1 storm can do it for our area.

A little snow Monday and maybe a few inches before the rain on Wednesday.

There are just so many competing influences thrown together this winter. It’s like one giant interference pattern. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

There are just so many competing influences thrown together this winter. It’s like one giant interference pattern. 

This would have been a good winter if the MJO didn't get stuck in 5 and 6 for a while.

[Brasiluvsnow]

Just saw GEFS and the ensembles look real good ( good as in very snowy for most ),,,,,,,all this guidance is just ridiculous run to run or model to model

[bwt3650]

you cannot group a storm by type (i.e. cutter, hugger, etc) and automatically predict the outcome (all rain, all snow etc.). Clearly the coast with have p-type issues, but predicting that high (one of the better placements so far this season) is just as important.  The winter may bust from the blockbuster some of the hype mongers were predicting, but for the first time in a while, we have snow chances...we are all here to track winter storms and in the next three weeks, we should have some to track...it’s a win at this point 

[MJO812]

Just now, bluewave said:

But energy transfer isn’t going to halt the WAA above the surface created by a stronger primary. The result could be a nasty mixed event like the Euro is showing. 

It depends how strong the lakes cutter is going to  be. The weaker the better for us.

Still some time to iron this out

[ILoveWinter]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be strong enough to cause P-Type issues along the coast and even perhaps to our north with strong CAD and WAA above the deck.

Also important to see how early and strong the initial wave of snowy precip comes in (sometimes can be undermodeled).  Hopefully its similar to the November storm.

[MJO812]

 

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The November storm was much different. The primary and secondary develoment was further to our SW. The UL closed off to our south instead to the Great Lakes.

Too early to say what this upcoming storm will be since we are 4 days out.