February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

[weatherpruf]

21 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Monday and then Wednesday

Of course I just wasted a 25 lb bag of salt on a glacier in front of my house that is now melted anyway. Figured I wouldn't need it......

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Gfs has nothing but rain for the November 15th snowstorm so don’t get excited for that. Get excited that it’s actually showing snow this time. I think this storm ends up being colder than the gfs is showing it’s thermals are horrible!

Exactly the GFS has a warm bias with thermals, if it's showing the freezing line south of the city at the start of the storm it's a good sign.

[RU848789]

GFS backed off a bit on snow and cold with this system, but is still a decent 3-6" event for most of the Philly-NYC area (except at the coast).  I'm sure there would be major rejoicing around here if that were to verify.  Hopefully, the step back is just the usual fluctuations around the eventual mean and not the start of a trend in the warm/wet direction. 

[forkyfork]

that's a nice high though. probably mostly frozen just inland

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Need to lose that primary over the Great Lakes. Otherwise, this is a quick front end thump to mix and then rain at the coast. 

The high will keep the surface cold, could mean more sleet/ice. 

[NYCweatherNOW]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Need to lose that primary over the Great Lakes. Otherwise, this is a quick front end thump to mix and then rain at the coast. 

I disagree this setup always overperforms since I’ve been following these systems. It’s always a good thump to some light showers and drizzle. Every single time I can remember except November we got a great thump to some light showers. November storm it turned to heavy rain because the ocean temps were too warm.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I disagree this setup always overperforms since I’ve been following these systems. It’s always a good thump to some light showers and drizzle. Every single time I can remember except November we got a great thump to some light showers. November storm it turned to heavy rain because the ocean temps were too warm.

Just as often the rain line races north. Let's hope we can get a few inches at least. 

[RU848789]

25 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

GFS backed off a bit on snow and cold with this system, but is still a decent 3-6" event for most of the Philly-NYC area (except at the coast).  I'm sure there would be major rejoicing around here if that were to verify.  Hopefully, the step back is just the usual fluctuations around the eventual mean and not the start of a trend in the warm/wet direction. 

And because I know people love this stuff, here's the GFS run through 240, with the 2/16-17 system being mostly snowy, also.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Way way way too early to start talking about totals and rain snow lines. Focus on the big features. High placement and track of the primary.

we do have colder ocean temps on our side and that’s one of the major reasons February is the snowiest month for the coast.

[Brasiluvsnow]

guys help me out,,,,the past 4 or even 5 GFS runs that high is in almost the same location each run = can that be ---> the same exact location ? And don't we want that High more west of where it does actually show ?

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

guys help me out,,,,the past 4 or even 5 GFS runs that high is in almost the same location each run = can that be ---> the same exact location ? And don't we want that High more west of where it does actually show ?

the problem is the primary and how fast it transfers energy to the coast and if the new coastal can become the primary low which would draw more cold into the area - the strength of that high pressure is important also...

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

And because I know people love this stuff, here's the GFS run through 240, with the 2/16-17 system being mostly snowy, also.  

Gfs is very active in the long range. Not shocking since the mjo will be in the active phases.

[NYCweatherNOW]

Who called for 70 tomorrow? Looks like we won’t even hit more than 64 somewhere in Staten Island of Newark. but New York City should top at 59. Other city areas like Staten Island briefly could hit 64 than to freezing tomorrow night.

[SnoSki14]

16 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Who called for 70 tomorrow? Looks like we won’t even hit more than 64 somewhere in Staten Island of Newark. but New York City should top at 59. Other city areas like Staten Island briefly could hit 64 than to freezing tomorrow night.

Mostly 50s tomorrow, front comes through early, lots of low clouds.

The big warm-up turned out to be earlier this week where upper 60s were reached.

[NYCweatherNOW]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Mostly 50s tomorrow, front comes through early, lots of low clouds.

The big warm-up turned out to be earlier this week where upper 60s were reached.

The question was who called for 70? 

 

I know now it was you and it’s fair at least you answered. The pattern setting up, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a better outlook for the next month at least!

have fun with the snow and the tracking of course!

[NYCweatherNOW]

Although the gfs FV3 18z a.k.a gfs para show heavy rain at the end of the system, it also shows some incredible snow rates for the whole region the first 6-7 hours of snow. I would think these rates could accumulate 4/inches an hr. Take a look below...

 

[snowheavyattimes]

4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

The question was who called for 70? 

 

I know now it was you and it’s fair at least you answered. The pattern setting up, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a better outlook for the next month at least!

have fun with the snow and the tracking of course!

Man I love your enthusiasm and I hope you’re right. It’s been such a boring winter up to this point. 

[etudiant]

There should be a discount factor for longer term forecasts.

So if gfs FV3 projects 4"/hr  for 5 days out, discount by a factor of 5. That suggests modest snow at 0.8"/hr.

Precedent would probably be supportive of that.

[donsutherland1]

The SOI was -7.59 today. In dropping to -7.59, the SOI broke out of the narrow range in which it spent the prior four days. The -7.59 figure is also the lowest reading since January 13 when the SOI was -9.04.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) continues to rise from its February 1 minimum of -3.537. Today's preliminary value was -0.476. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.438.

On February 6, the MJO pushed deeper into Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.336 (RMM). That amplitude had risen slightly from the February 5-adjusted figure of 1.253.

After spending 3-5 days in Phase 6, the MJO should return to Phase 7. Upon reaching Phase 7, it should slowly advance toward Phase 8. It could approach or reach Phase 8 within a few days of mid-month.

After that, there is considerable uncertainty. Even as many of the dynamical models show the MJO's pushing into Phase 1, the historical risks are somewhat weighted in favor of a possible return to Phase 7. Right now, none of the operational guidance shows such an outcome, but the guidance has not fared well in the extended range.

Phase 6 at a high amplitude and Phase 7 at low amplitude typically favor a positive AO. As a result, the AO will likely continue to rise in the coming days. There remains strong ensemble consensus for the AO to reach positive values over the next day or two.

Afterward, depending on the progression of the MJO, the AO could return to negative values. Were the AO to peak at or above +3.000, the probability of a fairly quick return to negative values would decline. Once the AO returns to negative values, there remains a possibility that a predominantly colder than normal regime could then lock in for at least a 2-3 week period, especially as the EPO is expected to go negative.

Finally, the pattern could become stormy after the 10th. Details for potential storms will need to be resolved as the possible events draw closer. However, there has been some run-to-run continuity in the guidance suggesting the possibility of an event that could bring at least some accumulating snow to the region sometime in the next 4-7 days.

[Ericjcrash]

23 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Although the gfs FV3 18z a.k.a gfs para show heavy rain at the end of the system, it also shows some incredible snow rates for the whole region the first 6-7 hours of snow. I would think these rates could accumulate 4/inches an hr. Take a look below...

 

That's going to be a no from me dawg. NYC probably sees ~4-5" per usual SWFE. Does it or does it not get washed away? That is the question. High placement is ideal, primarily low strength and placement is certainly not.

[ForestHillWx]

Raining currently. 39 here

[HVSnowLover]

46 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

That's going to be a no from me dawg. NYC probably sees ~4-5" per usual SWFE. Does it or does it not get washed away? That is the question. High placement is ideal, primarily low strength and placement is certainly not.

A high like that in Feburary should keep everyone away from the immediate coast at or below freezing for most of the event.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said:

That's going to be a no from me dawg. NYC probably sees ~4-5" per usual SWFE. Does it or does it not get washed away? That is the question. High placement is ideal, primarily low strength and placement is certainly not.

Great post and pretty much covers where we stand currently. In these types of events surface temps on the coast can be an issue if the primary is too strong and winds are onshore. It helps some that water temps are at there lowest of the year but if winds are strong enough from the E/SE temps go above freezing. That’s why it’s too early to predict amounts. 

Nw of the city is a whole other ball game and going with the seasonal trend should be good to go.

[NYCweatherNOW]

3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Great post and pretty much covers where we stand currently. In these types of events surface temps on the coast can be an issue if the primary is too strong and winds are onshore. It helps some that water temps are at there lowest of the year but if winds are strong enough from the E/SE temps go above freezing. That’s why it’s too early to predict amounts. 

Nw of the city is a whole other ball game and going with the seasonal trend should be good to go.

I don’t think that’s true, imo this will be mostly a snow event... than once the main slug of moisture goes in the water, the coastal takes over and moves out quickly like the navgem depicts...it may end as some rain or sleet shower and/or drizzle

[Ericjcrash]

14 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I don’t think that’s true, imo this will be mostly a snow event... than once the main slug of moisture goes in the water, the coastal takes over and moves out quickly like the navgem depicts...it may end as some rain or sleet shower and/or drizzle

Not going outside the BM.

[MJO812]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Not going outside the BM.

I think we see a few inches on the front end unless the transfer happens earlier.

[MJO812]

Para has 10+ for the NYC area ( Mostly snow and sleet )

Snow to rain

[Sn0waddict]

Navgem has a huge SE bias for as far back as I can remember. 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said:

A high like that in Feburary should keep everyone away from the immediate coast at or below freezing for most of the event.

You could consider Brooklyn, SI and Queens and most of Middlesex Co NJ coastal for these purposes, and any wind not from the north or northeast will turn everything over to rain and right quick. That said, we can sometimes eke out 4-8 before a changeover, which would be fabulous considering how the year has gone. Reserving judgement until I see the snow on the ground.

[HVSnowLover]

38 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

You could consider Brooklyn, SI and Queens and most of Middlesex Co NJ coastal for these purposes, and any wind not from the north or northeast will turn everything over to rain and right quick. That said, we can sometimes eke out 4-8 before a changeover, which would be fabulous considering how the year has gone. Reserving judgement until I see the snow on the ground.

When I say immediate coast I'm usually referring to Jersey Shore, South Shore of Long Island and southern Brooklyn/southern Queens/parts of staten island/lower Manhattan (which usually torches with the urban heating effect). These are usually the places that torch the fastest. I know everyone has a different definition, to some the immediate coast may go all the way to I287. Either way I think this is an interesting event for the area potentially.