February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Just reading the threads and the model updates...this all looks very familiar. 

 

Like we did this same exact thing 2 weeks ago. 

 

Just saying...

Different setup

[NYCweatherNOW]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Different setup

Anthony can you open a thread cause mines got deleted

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Anthony can you open a thread cause mines got deleted

Why did yours get deleted?

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Snowman vs. an entire model consensus. classic!

if it does turn out the way you are implying (strong primary into the lakes) which I said yesterday had a 50/50 chance and today is down to 25/75 you will be here with I told you so. If not, you will be mia for sure 

What’s going to be classic is next week when this is another rain event for the metro area. It’s an awful setup, you know it and so do the others who are hyping this. Model consensus? Lol Like the model consensus 6 days out for “snowstorms” that all have fallen apart since late November? How many now? NYC has recorded one inch since 11/15/18 - today

[Neblizzard]

53 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That’s not even a true classic EPO ridge. The setup is still horrible. I don’t believe secondary coastal development with no blocking in the Atlantic. Still -PNA, ++AO, ++NAO. This whole thing is going to turn out not the way you want it, I’m telling you

I remember when you were banned for 4 months last year.  Too bad it wasn’t permanent. Again your analysis is horrible, the models have trended east with the ridge over Alaska ( it’s more -EPO).  The confluence over Canada acts as your block.  So if that is right on the models this will not be a warm solution.  The MJO heading into a favorable phase 8-1 is going to take about another week before the models fully grasp onto the pattern.  I think this winter will end much like last years. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

What’s going to be classic is next week when this is another rain event for the metro area. It’s an awful setup, you know it and so do the others who are hyping this. Model consensus? Lol Like the model consensus 6 days out for “snowstorms” that all have fallen apart since late November? How many now? NYC has recorded one inch since 11/15/18 - today

How is it an awful setup?

[snowman19]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Respectfully disagree, I think the confluence will shred that primary apart. Just look at the Ukmet.

It's not horrible at all. You don't need a -NAO/+PNA, the -EPO is causing a lot of confluence that will shred that primary and cause it to trend further south.

AO goes positive but tanks before mid-month. MJO may be in phase 8. It's not an ideal setup obviously and I think it'll play out as a SWFE with a snow to ice to rain setup. 

However given the strong high to the north, temps may not rise above freezing so Snow to Ice may be more likely. I'm thinking it'll be a 3-6 front-ender rn. 

All models have trended towards a much weaker, colder, strung out system, which would be a lot better for us. 

That’s not even a classic EPO ridge, see Bluewave’s post. But you go ahead and forecast a snowstorm for next week with no North Atlantic blocking, no -NAO and a -PNA. I wish you luck

[Neblizzard]

Just now, snowman19 said:

That’s not even a classic EPO ridge, see Bluewave’s post. But you go ahead and forecast a snowstorm for next week with no North Atlantic blocking, no -NAO and a -PNA. I wish you luck

You don’t need a -NAO for a modest size snowfall genius.  If you have perfect timing with a high in Canada , that technically acts as your block.  I learned that a long time ago in college. 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

I remember when you were banned for 4 months last year.  Too bad it wasn’t permanent. Again your analysis is horrible, the models have trended east with the ridge over Alaska ( it’s more -EPO).  The confluence over Canada acts as your block.  So if that is right on the models this will not be a warm solution.  The MJO heading into a favorable phase 8-1 is going to take about another week before the models fully grasp onto the pattern.  I think this winter will end much like last years. 

Your post is going to be great to bring back again next week. Lol. Talk about atrocious analysis, it’s your post. MJO has a lag so even if it went into “Phase 8” next week the effects aren’t immediate, read up. If you think this is a good setup for a snowstorm in the metro area I wish you God speed. This winter is going to end just like last year? Based on what? Wishes, hopes and prayers. There is nothing that even remotely matches the pattern progression of last year, like not even close, not even in the ballpark. But you go ahead with March, 2018

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

You don’t need a -NAO for a modest size snowfall genius.  If you have perfect timing with a high in Canada , that technically acts as your block.  I learned that a long time ago in college. 

Yet people think that lol

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Your post is going to be great to bring back again next week. Lol. Talk about atrocious analysis, it’s your post. MJO has a lag so even if it went into “Phase 8” next week the effects aren’t immediate, read up. If you think this is a good setup for a snowstorm in the metro area I wish you God speed. This winter is going to end just like last year? Based on what? Wishes, hopes and prayers. There is nothing that even remotely matches the pattern progression of last year, like not even close, not even in the ballpark. But you go ahead with March, 2018

Yes this winter might end like last year because the mjo is rolling along into 8 and 1 at a high magnitude.

 

[NEG NAO]

16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Why did yours get deleted?

Its way to early to create a thread for next week considering what has happened previously this winter - If general model consensus after the Saturday 12Z model runs shows it has the potential to issue advisories or warnings then create the thread IMO.

[Neblizzard]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Your post is going to be great to bring back again next week. Lol. Talk about atrocious analysis, it’s your post. MJO has a lag so even if it went into “Phase 8” next week the effects aren’t immediate, read up. If you think this is a good setup for a snowstorm in the metro area I wish you God speed. This winter is going to end just like last year? Based on what? Wishes, hopes and prayers. There is nothing that even remotely matches the pattern progression of last year, like not even close, not even in the ballpark. But you go ahead with March, 2018

See you immediately think we all assume it’s a KU pattern when it clearly is not.  You can snow to the coast with a perfectly timed high to the north.   All the models have shown this trend today.  Once the MJO reaches phase 8 , there will be a 7-14 day lag in the pattern which will set up a potential major snowfall for the end of the month.  Hopefully the mods see your constant trolling posts and ban you again.  

[Dan76]

He's trolling because he thinks it's not going to snow?

[pino0914]

noob question but what does KU stand for?

[RU848789]

26 minutes ago, romba said:

 

I don’t recall this amount of model concensus 5 days out. 2 weeks ago there wasn’t concensus and whatever snow was shown on a model or two or three fell apart between day 7 and day 5 if I recall and the last straggler holding on to a snow storm caved around day 5 then. We’re definitely ahead of where we’ve been recently but still a ways to go.

5 days before the 1/20 event, the 0Z models ranged from warm/wet (Euro) to a huge snowstorm (UK) and everything else in between.  

[NYCweatherNOW]

25 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

How is it an awful setup?

That guy is a broken record dude even when he’s right he’s wrong cause even a dead clock is right twice a day! He’s always saying no snow, dude it’s nyc we get snow here at least a few times a year and it’s going to snow next week whether you like it or not.

[NYCweatherNOW]

34 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Why did yours get deleted?

It’s not early it’s 4 days away

[MJO812]

 

8 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

He's trolling because he thinks it's not going to snow?

No he's trolling because he always does this. He vanishes when we get snow.

 

1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

That guy is a broken record dude even when he’s right he’s wrong cause even a dead clock is right twice a day! He’s always saying no snow, dude it’s nyc we get snow here at least a few times a year and it’s going to snow next week whether you like it or not.

The pattern is starting to get better. GEFS has a nice blocking signal moving forward. The teleconnections should turn favorable once the MJO goes into 8.

[Dan76]

6 minutes ago, pino0914 said:

noob question but what does KU stand for?

The web is a wonderful place     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Northeast_Snowfall_Impact_Scale_winter_storms

[SnowGoose69]

Both events look good right now.  The first on Sunday may not be spitting out a ton of QPF but I like the upper levels as far as it having potential.  The more significant event is the perfect setup here much like November with the approach from the south or south-southwest with the high positioned idealy.  Long way to go though  

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

It’s not early it’s 4 days away

4 days away ? More like 5 days away and you don't start threads 5 days away with a forecast with so much uncertainty  like this ( I know there will be a few people who think they are smarter then Upton - but I will post this anyways )

MONDAY  
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING PARTLY  
SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40.    
MONDAY NIGHT  
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.    
TUESDAY  
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. A CHANCE OF RAIN  
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION  
50 PERCENT.    
TUESDAY NIGHT  
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.  
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.    
WEDNESDAY  
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE  
MORNING, THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER  
40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.    

[RU848789]

17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Both events look good right now.  The first on Sunday may not be spitting out a ton of QPF but I like the upper levels as far as it having potential.  The more significant event is the perfect setup here much like November with the approach from the south or south-southwest with the high positioned idealy.  Long way to go though  

Was thinking the same thing.  And presumably, in this case, if we do pop a weak coastal low, the risks of screaming warm winds off the ocean are far less with the ocean in the upper 30s as opposed to the low 50s in mid-Nov (I'm still convinced the fear of that was why the NWS discounted all the models showing snow).  

[HVSnowLover]

36 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

5 days before the 1/20 event, the 0Z models ranged from warm/wet (Euro) to a huge snowstorm (UK) and everything else in between.  

Yea that storm was more intense overall so the possibility of major shifting was more likely. This is a weakish cutter at most even if it cuts the bulk of the precip hopefully falls well out ahead of it. 

[JustinRP37]

12 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Uptown is always conservative I never listen to them literally they’re wrong more than I have been, and that tells you something I’m not even a pro. I am however passionate about weather

This is definitely not true. Upton does not go model to model. These are literally people who have devoted their life to the study of meteorology. No offense but they are not just about weather enthusiasts. They get slammed when they are conservative and they get slammed when they ‘hype’. It really is a thankless job. Further when people slam models they really do not understand the complexity of the models. I have a PhD in the sciences and what these models do and the people that build them simply amaze me. There is some complex calculus that goes into these models not to mention all the programming.

[allgame830]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Your post is going to be great to bring back again next week. Lol. Talk about atrocious analysis, it’s your post. MJO has a lag so even if it went into “Phase 8” next week the effects aren’t immediate, read up. If you think this is a good setup for a snowstorm in the metro area I wish you God speed. This winter is going to end just like last year? Based on what? Wishes, hopes and prayers. There is nothing that even remotely matches the pattern progression of last year, like not even close, not even in the ballpark. But you go ahead with March, 2018

Honestly just stop posting... I guarantee you if it snows next week we won't here a peep out of you which is classic of your recent past.  No wonder why your daily limited to posting.  Sorry for the banter but this needs to stay!

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Honestly just stop posting... I guarantee you if it snows next week we won't here a peep out of you which is classic of your recent past.  No wonder why your daily limited to posting.  Sorry for the banter but this needs to stay!

It's going to snow 2 times next week

[Brasiluvsnow]

I can tell you this----4 hours ago TWC had 1-3 for my area for Tuesday and they upped it as TWC now says 3-5

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Famous last words. 

Monday and then Wednesday

[HVSnowLover]

I don't want to get excited yet but the GFS has a very similar look to the November storm. Not verbatim in terms of snowfall but in terms of the precip rushing in from the SW into cold air. Models usually underdo the intensity of the front end precip in these scenarios  

[NYCweatherNOW]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I don't want to get excited yet but the GFS has a very similar look to the November storm. Not verbatim in terms of snowfall but in terms of the precip rushing in from the SW into cold air. Models usually underdo the intensity of the front end precip in these scenarios  

Gfs had nothing but rain for the November 15th snowstorm so don’t get excited for that. Get excited that it’s actually showing snow this time. I think this storm ends up being colder than the gfs is showing it’s thermals are horrible!