MJO812 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Here we go lmfao https://trib.al/Hz6021T 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Oh God that place is bad luck for me every time I go to their site it never snows so now I just don’t go to their site anymore but u made me click I think u just jinxed us Anthony. NYC can we possibly be more snakebite or jinxed then we already are , I mean almost 3 months with little or no snow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Here we go lmfao https://trib.al/Hz6021T Staten island chuck and his cousin from pennsltucky say otherwise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: There are certainly some that are towel throwing. Some of it is personal bias. My personal bias is always twords snow, when ever and as much as possible. It means thousands of dollars to me. And I’m an avid snow boarder and winters last long above 2,000’ in Vermont. March is a full on winter month there. But that’s just me. On a more serious note, I agree there are major conflicting signals. I would put the chances of us seeing snow next week at 50/50. The storm could easily follow the seasonal trend and cut. What I’m excited for is what comes after. A super high amplitude 8/1 MJO is a money signal. You should try Maine; my BIL is sick of the snow already. He posts videos complaining about it. But he tried AZ for a trip and couldn't bear the heat. Hated Fl too. Hated NJ too, but so does everyone so there's that....if I lived in ME I would ice fish but down here it isn't worth it; the fish are not there in numbers and nothing freezes for long enough ( though in some parts of NJ it does ). But i thought you were a surfer dude.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just now, Dan76 said: Staten island chuck and his cousin from pennsltucky say otherwise They are probably just as accurate LOL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure builds in behind the departing cold front Friday night and remains over the region through Sunday. winds will become more westerly and gusty behind the front Friday night into early Saturday as colder and drier air move into the region. Winds are forecast to reach 20-30 mph with gusts between 30 and 40 mph, with the potential for higher gusts. A wind advisory may be needed in this time frame. Winds gradually decrease late Saturday afternoon as the high builds overhead. The high then moves offshore on Sunday. This will give way to a series of low pressure systems moving across the area early next week. The first wave appears to move across the area Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures at this time appear cold enough for a light snow event. The second wave impacts the region Tuesday and Wednesday. This second low appears to be the more significant than the first one, however right now temperatures appear to warm enough for rain to occur at least at coastal locations and possibly even across the inland areas. The exact track of the low is still uncertain. A track closer to the coast, means more rain and one further from the coast would mean more snow. 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: They are probably just as accurate LOL. 39% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 54 minutes ago, David-LI said: 2-3 feet? please stop. it doesn't show that and it's most likely wrong. him and the model have something in common 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 The first week of February is ending as an exceptionally warm start to the month, much as the first week in January concluded. It is likely that the first week of February 2019 will be among the 20 warmest periods on record in New York City. The SOI was +1.54 today. The SOI has fluctuated within a narrow range from -0.91 to +1.54 over the past four days. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) continues to rise from its February 1 minimum of -3.537. Today's preliminary value was -0.791. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.438. On February 5, the MJO moved back into Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.254 (RMM). That amplitude had risen slightly from the February 4-adjusted figure of 1.226. After spending 3-5 days in Phase 6, the MJO should return to Phase 7. Upon reaching Phase 7, it should slowly advance toward Phase 8. It could approach or reach Phase 8 within a few days of mid-month. Phase 6 at a high amplitude and Phase 7 at low amplitude typically favor a positive AO. As a result, the AO will likely continue to rise in the coming days. There remains strong ensemble consensus for the AO to reach positive values over the next day or two. Afterward, depending on the progression of the MJO, the AO could return to negative values. Once that happens, there remains a possibility that a predominantly colder than normal regime could then lock in for at least a 2-3 week period, especially as the EPO is expected to go negative. Finally, the pattern could become stormy after the 10th. Details for potential storms will need to be resolved as the possible events draw closer, especially as the guidance has not fared very well in the medium- and extended-range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2018 was the 4th warmest year on record globally no wonder we get all these rainers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: 2018 was the 4th warmest year on record globally no wonder we get all these rainers! https://www.axios.com/earths-5-warmest-years-have-occurred-since-2014-cc42f4bb-dbc6-40b7-b478-0ce942fab2d0.html The 5 warmest years have all been 2014 and we still got some amazing storms. Increased temperature = increase moisture in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 55 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: There are certainly some that are towel throwing. Some of it is personal bias. My personal bias is always twords snow, when ever and as much as possible. It means thousands of dollars to me. And I’m an avid snow boarder and winters last long above 2,000’ in Vermont. March is a full on winter month there. But that’s just me. On a more serious note, I agree there are major conflicting signals. I would put the chances of us seeing snow next week at 50/50. The storm could easily follow the seasonal trend and cut. What I’m excited for is what comes after. A super high amplitude 8/1 MJO is a money signal. Yeah that is the other part of it. With people going on about how much they hate snow, I have to remind them that many people rely on snow for either supplemental income or their whole income. Think of the ski areas in southern NY, New England, and what not. Then all the crews that do supplemental work for winter recreation. Landscapers often need the snow for increased revenue in the 'off-season'. What part of Vermont do you go to? We like to head up to Bomoseen and then ski at Killington. Killington is always insane with the snow, even on years where we get nothing. I'd even go so far as to say early April can be a strong winter month there. Combine that with their massive snow making capabilities and you never have to worry about weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: There are certainly some that are towel throwing. Some of it is personal bias. My personal bias is always twords snow, when ever and as much as possible. It means thousands of dollars to me. And I’m an avid snow boarder and winters last long above 2,000’ in Vermont. March is a full on winter month there. But that’s just me. On a more serious note, I agree there are major conflicting signals. I would put the chances of us seeing snow next week at 50/50. The storm could easily follow the seasonal trend and cut. What I’m excited for is what comes after. A super high amplitude 8/1 MJO is a money signal. I think you're right on the last part. Let's hope we can get a HECS/MECS out of it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Was just startled by some kind of sustained flash to my west (from Piscataway). Some shades of brown and blue. It came in two waves. I guess it must've been a transformer... wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Lake cutter on GFS. A strong low pressure over the midwest though. Is that common? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, David-LI said: Lake cutter on GFS. A strong low pressure over the midwest though. Is that common? Yeah I don't buy that for a second. At worst it's a SWFE and at best what the Para Gfs showed. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Picked up 0.45" of rain for the day. Current temp 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 51 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah I don't buy that for a second. At worst it's a SWFE and at best what the Para Gfs showed. Even with GFS' cutter solution tonight, it still showed a 1 to 3 inch snow before the change to rain. GGEM showed 3 to 5 inches. I think too many people are giving up too early on this one. Even if it isn't an all out snowstorm, it could be a front end dump type of storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 N.J. weather: Snow is back in the forecast. Is winter making a comeback? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 38degs., or 4degs. AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 6 gfs snow maps are a crushing through hour 240 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 10 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: There are certainly some that are towel throwing. Some of it is personal bias. My personal bias is always twords snow, when ever and as much as possible. It means thousands of dollars to me. And I’m an avid snow boarder and winters last long above 2,000’ in Vermont. March is a full on winter month there. But that’s just me. On a more serious note, I agree there are major conflicting signals. I would put the chances of us seeing snow next week at 50/50. The storm could easily follow the seasonal trend and cut. What I’m excited for is what comes after. A super high amplitude 8/1 MJO is a money signal. I am cautiously optimistic that after mid-month, opportunities for snowfall will finally increase. I certainly hope so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: We had a high amplitude MJO 8-1 in mid to late February 2017. But we had to wait until March for the big snow. You never really know how the MJO will interact with the other weather and climate players on the field. This year is a shining example of that. Sometimes you get a storm right away with the MJO. But other times there is a lag. Despite the favorable conditions for snow, a big snow storm is far from a guarantee, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Gfs FV3 is a crush job for next weeks system. Not as good as the 18z run but it’s definitely a significant snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 31 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Gfs FV3 is a crush job for next weeks system. Not as good as the 18z run but it’s definitely a significant snowstorm Mt. Holly in their 6:34am AFD this morning is not buying into a snowstorm for next Tues-Wed. at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 37 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Gfs FV3 is a crush job for next weeks system. Not as good as the 18z run but it’s definitely a significant snowstorm That model is god-awful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 16 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Late October/Early Nov Snow-the kiss of death I agree and have said it numerous times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 12 hours ago, tomcatct said: It was the first to call the 96 blizzard as well... No it wasn't. The ECMWF was locked and loaded on that storm 8-9 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC is going into Feb 10th with the lowest met winter snowfall since the 97-98 winter. The good news is that the biggest seasonal snow in 97-98 came after. The most recent year on the top ten lowest list is 2008. That year had a surprise SWFE on 2-22-08 that was the best snowfall of the winter. 1 1998-02-10 0.5 0 2 1919-02-10 0.8 0 3 2019-02-10 1.1 4 - 1900-02-10 1.1 0 5 1932-02-10 1.6 0 6 1973-02-10 1.8 0 7 1914-02-10 2.1 0 8 1992-02-10 2.2 0 9 2007-02-10 2.6 0 10 2008-02-10 2.9 0 I remember going on a trip to the city the day after. This was when I was little. I think I remember it was about 6 inches of slush, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 9 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Even with GFS' cutter solution tonight, it still showed a 1 to 3 inch snow before the change to rain. GGEM showed 3 to 5 inches. I think too many people are giving up too early on this one. Even if it isn't an all out snowstorm, it could be a front end dump type of storm. Yea the GFS shows the most significant snowfall NYC has had since November on the frontend even with it's GLC scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 My guess is, we get a good thump initially. We transition over to some rain, preferably light, and we dry out soon after, leaving about an inch or two of slop. A good 6" is all I'm asking for this winter. Probably not with this one, but eventually we'll get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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