NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 4:43 PM, Snow88 said: Models will change from now until next week but they are right though. No blocking but we will have a strong negative epo . We have to see how strong it will be and where the transfer will be. Expand the seasonal model pattern has been to show a great setup and lots of potential for a snow event then as we get closer the models start changing to a warmer cutter pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 4:43 PM, Snow88 said: Models will change from now until next week but they are right though. No blocking but we will have a strong negative epo . We have to see how strong it will be and where the transfer will be. Expand you generally need blocking to get a storm to transfer properly. That was the end problem with the 1/20 storm-the primary just ran up the coast about 50-100 miles inland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 4:46 PM, Brian5671 said: you generally need blocking to get a storm to transfer properly. That was the end problem with the 1/20 storm-the primary just ran up the coast about 50-100 miles inland... Expand correct - and there is no true blocking this go around either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 4:46 PM, Brian5671 said: you generally need blocking to get a storm to transfer properly. That was the end problem with the 1/20 storm-the primary just ran up the coast about 50-100 miles inland... Expand Blocking is crucial but you don't really need it for a snow event unless you are looking for a huge snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 4:47 PM, NEG NAO said: correct - and there is no true blocking this go around either Expand Agree There is an epo ridge to knock down the heights in the east and the favorable mjo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 4:48 PM, Snow88 said: Agree There is an epo ridge to knock down the heights in the east and the favorable mjo. Expand you need an 13-14, 14-15 style massive EPO press to get that. I don't see that here-the EPO ridge is a bit far west verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Still early the models have no clue yet ukmet looks like a good solution at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 If water froze at 45 degrees..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 4:50 PM, Brian5671 said: you need an 13-14, 14-15 style massive EPO press to get that. I don't see that here-the EPO ridge is a bit far west verbatim. Expand The EPO isn’t going to help this one. AO going very strongly positive, strong positive NAO, no Atlantic blocking to be had, strongly negative PNA. This has cutter written all over it. All of next week is an absolutely horrible setup for a snowstorm in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 5:27 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Still early the models have no clue yet ukmet looks like a good solution at 144 Expand Ukmet looks good Transfers near the mid Atalntic coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 6:22 PM, Snow88 said: Every model shows a transfer. The epo can certainly help us out. Expand no blocking, transfer would be sloppy at best-primary would stay stronger longer...not a good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 6:24 PM, Brian5671 said: no blocking, transfer would be sloppy at best-primary would stay stronger longer...not a good setup. Expand Yep. “Not good” is an understatement. Kinda hard to force secondary coastal redevelopment with zero blocking in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Euro is a cutter that develops too late. Need it to develop faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Euro is a cutter as well....LOL-this winter makes 11-12 look snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 6:39 PM, Brian5671 said: Euro is a cutter as well....LOL-this winter makes 11-12 look snowy Expand Hopefully we have an end similar to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 6:39 PM, Brian5671 said: Euro is a cutter as well....LOL-this winter makes 11-12 look snowy Expand Perfect. You never want to be in the bullseye this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 6:41 PM, CarLover014 said: Hopefully we have an end similar to last year. Expand at some point we'll get something, but it's getting late early. Looking at the real possibility now of an inch of snow for all of met winter...(dec-feb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Anyone see accuweather spring forecast? “Cold and Snowy start” for our region. That irony me laugh a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 6:45 PM, jfklganyc said: Anyone see accuweather spring forecast? “Cold and Snowy start” for our region. That irony me laugh a bit Expand the ultimate kick in the teeth-blocking develops 4/1 and lasts till Memorial day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 6:46 PM, Brian5671 said: the ultimate kick in the teeth-blocking develops 4/1 and lasts till Memorial day.... Expand By April, I want it in the 60s and 70s. My luck though, it'll be 40s and 50s with rain up to mid-May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 In other news, we may see one if the biggest AO rises on record for early February. These teleconnection indices are swinging as wildly as our temperatures. The GEFS are indicating the potential for an extreme 5 to 6 SD jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 6:46 PM, Brian5671 said: the ultimate kick in the teeth-blocking develops 4/1 and lasts till Memorial day.... Expand That would be awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 This winter is garabge. So many events have took turns for the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 6:53 PM, 495weatherguy said: That would be awful Expand I like cool wet springs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 7:12 PM, Snow88 said: I like cool wet springs Expand First person I have met that enjoys mud season. What is special about wet springs? Why not enjoy the sunshine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 6:46 PM, Brian5671 said: the ultimate kick in the teeth-blocking develops 4/1 and lasts till Memorial day.... Expand lock it up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 7:12 PM, Snow88 said: This winter is garabge. So many events have took turns for the worst. Expand i don't think you could have drawn up a more 1980's-esque winter if you tried....well, maybe the cold air would have stuck around a little longer...but still no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 7:19 PM, JustinRP37 said: First person I have met that enjoys mud season. What is special about wet springs? Why not enjoy the sunshine? Expand Cool weather is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 7:29 PM, Snow88 said: Cool weather is great Expand No doubt cool weather is great. Nothing like the 50s and 60s with full sunshine. It's the wetness I don't like. That's why I love snow so much. You can go out in it and enjoy it without getting soaked. Go for a run in the rain and mist and it is gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 I love rainy, cold, misty days. Too much sun is boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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