NYCweatherNOW Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 12:34 AM, weatherpruf said: Tell ya what, we can't get most storms to last more than a few hours. 30 hours is more than a day. It's gonna snow for 30 hours straight? No, it isn't. But I did not say that you said it would, did I? You read a model output and reported it, and I commented. Let's not read too much into it. Expand I doubt it snows for 30 hours and again I was just stating what the gfs depicted because Anthony said that mid Atlantic got a hit and I just said we did too. I am not taking the gfs solution literal because I’m sure it’ll change from now until the event. That’s all bro take it easy on me I’m a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 10:47 PM, JustinRP37 said: Sea surface temps are not that below normal up and down the east coast. They have been fairly above average until the arctic blast.I Expand The waters to our east and NE are BN, which is what matters most in BDCF scenarios. They'll warm a bit this week but then tank again when colder weather returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 12:45 AM, SnoSki14 said: The waters to our east and NE are BN, which is what matters most in BDCF scenarios. They'll warm a bit this week but then tank again when colder weather returns. Expand This is from today though. The waters east and north are normal to above normal. The only below normal sea surface temps are in the mid-Atlantic right up against the coast. However, even average water temps really can deliver those nasty BDCF days. Hopefully though they won’t last as the gloomy days really get to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 12:37 AM, NYCweatherNOW said: I doubt it snows for 30 hours and again I was just stating what the gfs depicted because Anthony said that mid Atlantic got a hit and I just said we did too. I am not taking the gfs solution literal because I’m sure it’ll change from now until the event. That’s all bro take it easy on me I’m a Expand We're all weenies at heart. Otherwise we'd be celebrating the warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 1:03 AM, JustinRP37 said: This is from today though. The waters east and north are normal to above normal. The only below normal sea surface temps are in the mid-Atlantic right up against the coast. However, even average water temps really can deliver those nasty BDCF days. Hopefully though they won’t last as the gloomy days really get to me. Expand Those are sea surface temperatures they are not the actual sea temps. Those are measured above the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 1:35 AM, NYCweatherNOW said: Those are sea surface temperatures they are not the actual sea temps. Those are measured above the water Expand No they are not. It is the sea surface temperature (2m) anomaly based on the mean from 1981 to 2005. That is the standard used in oceanic studies at the time. No clue why it is different than the time period we use for air temperature normals. I have a background in aquatic studies, so I know this stuff. The sea surface is what affects our weather, which is what these maps are showing. Gain depth in water and you rapidly cool. World-wide ocean temp below 1000 meters is right around 4C. The thermocline in a given area does not change much. The sea surface is what varies throughout the year. This is actually one of the coolest properties of water, and hence why northern lakes can upwell twice a year. Water is most dense at 4C, after which it becomes less dense as it crystallizes into ice. Warmer than 4C and it becomes less dense as well. Hence why our warm water floats on the colder water in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 1:45 AM, JustinRP37 said: No they are not. It is the sea surface temperature (2m) anomaly based on the mean from 1981 to 2005. That is the standard used in oceanic studies at the time. No clue why it is different than the time period we use for air temperature normals. I have a background in aquatic studies, so I know this stuff. The sea surface is what affects our weather, which is what these maps are showing. Gain depth in water and you rapidly cool. World-wide ocean temp below 1000 meters is right around 4C. The thermocline in a given area does not change much. The sea surface is what varies throughout the year. This is actually one of the coolest properties of water, and hence why northern lakes can upwell twice a year. Water is most dense at 4C, after which it becomes less dense as it crystallizes into ice. Warmer than 4C and it becomes less dense as well. Hence why our warm water floats on the colder water in the summer. Expand Oh ok my bad just learned something thanks Justin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 12:34 AM, weatherpruf said: Tell ya what, we can't get most storms to last more than a few hours. 30 hours is more than a day. It's gonna snow for 30 hours straight? No, it isn't. But I did not say that you said it would, did I? You read a model output and reported it, and I commented. Let's not read too much into it. Expand Wow, it can snow for allot longer then 30 hours and has many many times. PD2 is a great example. Previous to that there was the 70 hour storm in the 60s. And most notoriously the blizzard of 88. I’m not saying this particular event will, but making blanket statements like that doesn’t help this forum. This event is gaining traction, and may finally be the snow event we have been waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 3:07 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Wow, it can snow for allot longer then 30 hours and has many many times. PD2 is a great example. Previous to that there was the 70 hour storm in the 60s. And most notoriously the blizzard of 88. I’m not saying this particular event will, but making blanket statements like that doesn’t help this forum. This event is gaining traction, and may finally be the snow event we have been waiting for. Expand Many times? Back that up pilgrim. What constitutes many times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 3:07 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Wow, it can snow for allot longer then 30 hours and has many many times. PD2 is a great example. Previous to that there was the 70 hour storm in the 60s. And most notoriously the blizzard of 88. I’m not saying this particular event will, but making blanket statements like that doesn’t help this forum. This event is gaining traction, and may finally be the snow event we have been waiting for. Expand Didn't we get over 30 hours of snow in '96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 3:28 AM, SI Mailman said: Didn't we get over 30 hours of snow in '96? Expand So twice in over 20 years? I'm not a weather geek like most in here, but pardon me if I don't recall it snowing for 30 hours, not even during PD 2 ( or whatever, which had less snow than 96 ). But maybe I just don't pay that much attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 3:21 AM, weatherpruf said: Many times? Back that up pilgrim. What constitutes many times? Expand That’s Unc territory. 96, 78 to add to the three I already mentioned. I would say it’s at least a once a decade event on average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 3:07 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Wow, it can snow for allot longer then 30 hours and has many many times. PD2 is a great example. Previous to that there was the 70 hour storm in the 60s. And most notoriously the blizzard of 88. I’m not saying this particular event will, but making blanket statements like that doesn’t help this forum. This event is gaining traction, and may finally be the snow event we have been waiting for. Expand A little snow Monday and a bigger one possibly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Nice snow event for next Wednesday on the gfs ( Miller B ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 4:28 AM, Snow88 said: Nice snow event for next Wednesday on the gfs ( Miller B ) Expand you seriously buying what the gfs is showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 4:37 AM, nycwinter said: you seriously buying what the gfs is showing? Expand We should be focusing on the signal at this lead time not specifics. The reality is this is the best shot the coast has had since November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 4:39 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: We should be focusing on the signal at this lead time not specifics. The reality is this is the best shot the coast has had since November Expand Also the best model run inside of 7 days for us since that one Ukie run for the January 20th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 4:37 AM, nycwinter said: you seriously buying what the gfs is showing? Expand Euro showed something similar at 12Z, as did the 18Z GFS-FV3, so yeah, I'm at least intrigued by 3 models showing a substantial snowstorm with a baroclinic zone set up near us, a nice moisture feed turned on, and a 50/50 low looking to take shape. Still way too far off to start analyzing op runs, but we have something to track and it has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 4:37 AM, nycwinter said: you seriously buying what the gfs is showing? Expand Gfs just came way south and east from the 12z run. Gfs isn't that far from the Euro. You have a nice epo ridge and mjo going into 8-1. The pattern looks better than what we have been through this winter. Hopefully it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 4:44 AM, RU848789 said: Euro showed something similar at 12Z, as did the 18Z GFS-FV3, so yeah, I'm at least intrigued by 3 models showing a substantial snowstorm with a baroclinic zone set up near us, a nice moisture feed turned on, and a 50/50 low looking to take shape. Still way too far off to start analyzing op runs, but we have something to track and it has potential. Expand A 50 / 50 low is big here. Nice cold air flow from canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 34degs., or just Normal. EURO has been 3",8",9",9", and now 5" on putative storm. GFS is 12", CMC is a Trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 3:35 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s Unc territory. 96, 78 to add to the three I already mentioned. I would say it’s at least a once a decade event on average Expand Ok fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 11:20 AM, weatherpruf said: Ok fair enough. Expand Early 2000’s there was a 36 hr event gfs is a monster storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 11:22 AM, NYCweatherNOW said: Early 2000’s there was a 36 hr event gfs is a monster storm Expand 2003 snowstorm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 11:22 AM, NYCweatherNOW said: Early 2000’s there was a 36 hr event gfs is a monster storm Expand Nothing would make me happier after this winter so far..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 11:31 AM, weatherpruf said: Nothing would make me happier after this winter so far..... Expand There is going to be a battle between the SE ridge and the EPO ridge trying to suppress the heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 11:35 AM, Snow88 said: There is going to be a battle between the SE ridge and the EPO ridge trying to suppress the heights. Expand What are the implications? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 11:37 AM, weatherpruf said: What are the implications? Expand We also don't want a round up storm until the storm hits the coast and transfers. The SE ridge is going to try to send the storm inland or near the coast. A negative epo is going to try to suppress the heights and fight the ridge nut we are also dealing with a positive NAO and AO and negative PNA. We need all the help we can get from the Epo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 11:35 AM, Snow88 said: There is going to be a battle between the SE ridge and the EPO ridge trying to suppress the heights. Expand If we’re stuck in the middle that’s our best case scenario as there will heavy precipitation coming up the coast. It’ll be a quick mover but regardless it’ll snow heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 If we manage to see less than an advisory event out of this we are really finding ways not to snow. Between the two waves I just don’t see how this is a total miss and or all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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