February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

A gradual progression is spring....

What?

[SnoSki14]

59 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Many record warm temperatures today across the Northeast with more to come, already outpaced the record cold and we have many days to go.

Probably means we'll see a KU soon, that's been the theme for years now.

1 hour ago, kat5hurricane said:

I know there's a lot of snow hounds on this board, present company included, but days like today make me yearn for spring and an abrupt end to winter right now. This weather makes you feel alive again.

It's a false flag if MJO forecasts are correct. 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Given that winter is mostly dead (maybe we get a storm or two) I'd vote just to have it be warm and dry the rest of the way....

Probably won't happen that way, there's too much cold up north and models are indicating a phase 8 pattern (cold). 

I'm still gonna wait and see what happens next few days. MJO forecasts haven't been very accurate all season. If I see them delay the phase 8 transition, then you'll probably be correct.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Weeklies are meh...shows some colder weather, but it's delayed until roughly 2/25.   The week before that is average to slightly below the biggest anomolies are in the upper midewest...the best deparatures locally are in early March, but it keeps pushing out and out and not really moving up in time.  Looks like a SE ridge trying to hang on too

Weeklies are good. What are you talking about ? -EPO and -PNA

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Weeklies are good. What are you talking about ? -EPO and -PNA

a -PNA that'll give you a SE ridge.   No -NAO or -AO either so expect a storm track over or west of us...meh.    2 M maps are meh too-most of the cold in the upper midwest-verbatim we're average to slightly below average rest of the month-where's all the big cold???

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Many record warm temperatures today across the Northeast with more to come, already outpaced the record cold and we have many days to go.

Yes. There will be more unseasonable warmth this week.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

a -PNA that'll give you a SE ridge.   No -NAO or -AO either so expect a storm track over or west of us...meh.    2 M maps are meh too-most of the cold in the upper midwest-verbatim we're average to slightly below average rest of the month-where's all the big cold???

A strong -EPO counteracts the -PNA. It can also introduce 50/50 like confluence in the absence of a true -AO/NAO. 

2M maps are mostly garbage, temps can easily be above or below them based on the pattern.

You don't need big cold for snow, Jan had plenty of big cold but nothing happened, last few years had a lot of mild air but we got plenty of snow. 

Closest analog I see to the upcoming pattern is Feb 1969, which had a strong -EPO/PNA pattern however that year had more Atlantic blocking so we'll have to see if that shows up as we get closer to phase 8. 

Again this could all go kaput if the forecasts are incorrect.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A strong -EPO counteracts the -PNA. It can also introduce 50/50 like confluence in the absence of a true -AO/NAO. 

2M maps are mostly garbage, temps can easily be above or below them based on the pattern.

You don't need big cold for snow, Jan had plenty of big cold but nothing happened, last few years had a lot of mild air but we got plenty of snow. 

Closest analog I see to the upcoming pattern is Feb 1969, which had a strong -EPO/PNA pattern however that year had more Atlantic blocking so we'll have to see if that shows up as we get closer to phase 8. 

Again this could all go kaput if the forecasts are incorrect.

The MJO will be a wildcard for sure.   No run through 8/1/2 forget anything snowy....

[Brian5671]

Just now, bluewave said:

One of the biggest snowstorms of this winter was after the last MJO 8-1 in early December. But the only problem is that it was suppressed to our south on December 11th. Details like that will never be known until closer to storm time. 

yeah we got unluckly this year with 2 southern sliders....that december storm could have been big here had it turned the corner.

[donsutherland1]

Readings around the New York City area surged into the 60s today under bright sunshine. Additional springlike warmth is on tap for tomorrow.

The SOI was -0.91 today.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) continues to rise quickly from its February 1 minimum of -3.537. Today's preliminary value was -1.510. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.422.

On February 3, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.386 (RMM). That amplitude had risen slightly from the February 2-adjusted figure of 1.274.

There remains some uncertainty about the MJO's progression. There remains a distinct possibility that the MJO could fall to low amplitude or return to Phase 6 in coming days. Afterward, it should return to Phase 7 before making a possible slow advance toward Phase 8, which it could approach or reach within a few days of mid-month. Outlying guidance--the EPS idea of a fairly fast move into Phase 8 and the Canadian Ensemble forecast of a shift to Phase 5 and slow move toward Phases 6 and 7 afterward-- is discounted. Outlying guidance has typically fared poorly in recent weeks.

Phase 6 at a high amplitude and Phase 7 at low amplitude typically favor a positive AO. As a result, the AO will likely continue to rise in the coming days. There remains strong ensemble consensus for this rise and growing consensus for the AO's reaching positive values in about 2-6 days.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the probability that the first week of February will see above normal readings in and around New York City has now risen to near 95%. However, colder air should return during coming weekend.

There remains a possibility that a predominantly colder than normal regime could then lock in for at least a 2-3 week period, especially as the EPO is expected to go negative and blocking could redevelop.

Based on the latest ENSO Region data, the currently fading El Niño is not likely to evolve into a central Pacific-based event this month. Instead, it will retain the characteristics of a basin-wide event. Overall, neutral-warm to possibly borderline El Niño conditions will be present for much or all of February.

The latest data is as follows:

Region 1+2 anomaly: +1.0°C (4-week moving average: +0.65°C)

Region 3.4 anomaly: +0.30°C (+0.40°C)

This development suggests that the probability of a snowy February has decreased. Should the modeled AO+/PNA- pattern develop, that would reinforce the idea of a lower than climatological probability of snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region.

 

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Readings around the New York City area surged into the 60s today under bright sunshine. Additional springlike warmth is on tap for tomorrow.

The SOI was -0.91 today.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) continues to rise quickly from its February 1 minimum of -3.537. Today's preliminary value was -1.510. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.422.

On February 3, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.386 (RMM). That amplitude had risen slightly from the February 2-adjusted figure of 1.274.

There remains some uncertainty about the MJO's progression. There remains a distinct possibility that the MJO could fall to low amplitude or return to Phase 6 in coming days. Afterward, it should return to Phase 7 before making a possible slow advance toward Phase 8, which it could approach or reach within a few days of mid-month. Outlying guidance--the EPS idea of a fairly fast move into Phase 8 and the Canadian Ensemble forecast of a shift to Phase 5 and slow move toward Phases 6 and 7 afterward-- is discounted. Outlying guidance has typically fared poorly in recent weeks.

Phase 6 at a high amplitude and Phase 7 at low amplitude typically favor a positive AO. As a result, the AO will likely continue to rise in the coming days. There remains strong ensemble consensus for this rise and growing consensus for the AO's reaching positive values in about 2-6 days.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the probability that the first week of February will see above normal readings in and around New York City has now risen to near 95%. However, colder air should return during coming weekend.

There remains a possibility that a predominantly colder than normal regime could then lock in for at least a 2-3 week period, especially as the EPO is expected to go negative and blocking could redevelop.

Based on the latest ENSO Region data, the currently fading El Niño is not likely to evolve into a central Pacific-based event this month. Instead, it will retain the characteristics of a basin-wide event. Overall, neutral-warm to possibly borderline El Niño conditions will be present for much or all of February.

The latest data is as follows:

Region 1+2 anomaly: +1.0°C (4-week moving average: +0.65°C)
Region 3.4 anomaly: +0.30°C (+0.40°C)

This development suggests that the probability of a snowy February has decreased. Should the modeled AO+/PNA- pattern develop, that would reinforce the idea of a lower than climatological probability of snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region.

You keep on referring to blocking may redevelop, when did we have blocking this winter?  We have had little to no blocking so far this winter as it never moves forward in time on the models.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Some garbage posts today. I’ll attempt to get things back on track.

1. Major wild card MJO. This has been discussed, if we do so a move into the cold phases that could radically alter long range modeling. So I wouldn’t focus on it so much now as it’s subject to change.

2. Gradient pattern, with the -PNA -EPO and it’s resultant cold across the west and northern tier and SE ridge lurking it will all come down to where the gradient sets up. Normally with -PNA we wouldn’t have a shot but the -EPO is sending a conflicting signal with cold ejecting from the western trough east. This is where your baroclynic zone sets up. As has been the case most of the winter it has been to our north where northern NE and southern Canada have seen record snow. Which in it of itself reinforces a local cold air source. This may have implications later in the season. (Potential for cold shots in early spring)

3. Lack of blocking. We have seen a pretty presistant +NAO. And that appears to continue somewhat. This gives me pause from looking for KU type events. 

 

So to summarize, we need to watch where the gradient sets up. If we can get it to setup a little further south then it has been we are in business. I would think that’s rather unlikely as a whole. But there will be plenty chances.

If I had to bet, gun to my head right now I would say we get at least one but possibly a few advisory level + events for the coast when we are on the right side of the gradient.

Overall based on the above factors at this time it’s a super low confidence forecast due to conflicting signals.

Anyone claiming winter is over or snowmagedon is on the way is.... talking out their ass 

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

You keep on referring to blocking may redevelop, when did we have blocking this winter?  We have had little to no blocking so far this winter as it never moves forward in time on the models.

I am referring to the AO. The AO has been negative lately, but Pacific blocking has been absent for much of the time. This has bee sufficient to allow for a few shots of bitter cold, but not for a snowy pattern to develop. The lack of ocean-atmosphere coupling has likely contributed. It may also explain the really dismal performance of the EPS weeklies, especially for week 2 and beyond.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

What?

If by gradual progression he mean over a few weeks, then yes, that would be spring. perhaps I misunderstood.

[etudiant]

Think it is really wonderful to see how much more variable our weather can be even over the near term, well beyond our current forecasting skills.

It sure teaches us humility.

That said, what can be learned from this? Are there any elements that we can look at to recognize that the modeling should be skeptically received?

Donsutherland1 has pointed to the absent Pacific blocking for one, what are the others?

[NYCweatherNOW]

Euro shows a cold storm for day seven very big storm too. 

[RU848789]

8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Euro shows a cold storm for day seven very big storm too. 

As modeled, the 6" line runs right up 95 with up to 12" for the interior, but only 2-4 inches at the NJ coast, so obviously, thermal profiles will likely be an issue with this storm.  Obviously, way, way, way too far out to pore over the model output, but it's just nice to see something on the board even if it isn't until 2/12.  Wish I knew how to copy/paste graphics from weather.us....

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Euro shows a cold storm for day seven very big storm too. 

Pattern gets better by this weekend

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Pattern gets better by this weekend

Massive divergence between the EPS/GEFS in the LR, not surprising given their MJO states. 

I really hope the EPS is correct here.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 40degs., or 6degs. AN.

5 R/S events in a week 2/12-2/19.   None look like All Snow.  GEFS/GEPS never more than a glancing exposure to BN heights.

JB still making up new analogs to suit his fancy.   

Portland, OR has better looking charts than we do!

45.5* here at 6am.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Massive divergence between the EPS/GEFS in the LR, not surprising given their MJO states. 

I really hope the EPS is correct here.

Eps has been getting better with every run and matches the Mjo progression.

[bluewave]

The biggest challenge with the pattern going forward is the -PNA. The -EPO can cool us off following the big warm up this week. But an amplified system can cause the WAR or SE Ridge to flex. Gradient patterns are always tricky since you never really know where the gradient will set up. But maybe we can get lucky with a thread the needle type of frozen event. Just too early to tell.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The biggest challenge with the pattern going forward is the -PNA. The -EPO can cool us off following the big warm up this week. But an amplified system can cause the WAR or SE Ridge to flex. Gradient patterns are always tricky since you never really know where the gradient will set up. But maybe we can get lucky with a thread the needle type of frozen event. Just too early to tell.

Need the epo to press heights on the coast. I think we will get lucky with some snow.

[Drz1111]

It’s interesting to me that people think of the MJO as an independent forcing.  It’s not.  The tendency of El Niño to stall the MJO over the maritime continent is known and modeled:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016MS000725

The more interesting question is why the effect is stronger this year. Tropical met folks would have you believe the tropics are the origin of teleconnections, but that’s bullshit, the tropics are coupled to the poles just like the poles are coupled to the tropics.  What I’ve been wondering is whether climate change could enhance the “winter monsoon”, particularly in the early/middle winter, by building the strength of the Siberian high.  A stronger winter monsoon would reduce diurnal convection in the maritime continent which would tend to stall the MJO in 5 and 6.

[NYCweatherNOW]

I would watch that wave Sunday night into Monday also. That could splurge a 1-3 incher

[NEG NAO]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Readings around the New York City area surged into the 60s today under bright sunshine. Additional springlike warmth is on tap for tomorrow.

The SOI was -0.91 today.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) continues to rise quickly from its February 1 minimum of -3.537. Today's preliminary value was -1.510. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.422.

On February 3, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.386 (RMM). That amplitude had risen slightly from the February 2-adjusted figure of 1.274.

There remains some uncertainty about the MJO's progression. There remains a distinct possibility that the MJO could fall to low amplitude or return to Phase 6 in coming days. Afterward, it should return to Phase 7 before making a possible slow advance toward Phase 8, which it could approach or reach within a few days of mid-month. Outlying guidance--the EPS idea of a fairly fast move into Phase 8 and the Canadian Ensemble forecast of a shift to Phase 5 and slow move toward Phases 6 and 7 afterward-- is discounted. Outlying guidance has typically fared poorly in recent weeks.

Phase 6 at a high amplitude and Phase 7 at low amplitude typically favor a positive AO. As a result, the AO will likely continue to rise in the coming days. There remains strong ensemble consensus for this rise and growing consensus for the AO's reaching positive values in about 2-6 days.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the probability that the first week of February will see above normal readings in and around New York City has now risen to near 95%. However, colder air should return during coming weekend.

There remains a possibility that a predominantly colder than normal regime could then lock in for at least a 2-3 week period, especially as the EPO is expected to go negative and blocking could redevelop.

Based on the latest ENSO Region data, the currently fading El Niño is not likely to evolve into a central Pacific-based event this month. Instead, it will retain the characteristics of a basin-wide event. Overall, neutral-warm to possibly borderline El Niño conditions will be present for much or all of February.

The latest data is as follows:

Region 1+2 anomaly: +1.0°C (4-week moving average: +0.65°C)

Region 3.4 anomaly: +0.30°C (+0.40°C)

This development suggests that the probability of a snowy February has decreased. Should the modeled AO+/PNA- pattern develop, that would reinforce the idea of a lower than climatological probability of snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region.

 

that's why its important not to keep believing some of these models with the day 7 -10  snowstorms which some have been showing all winter - now the EURO is showing a SECS or  MECS for next week  - early - mid week - have to wait till it shows the storm and we are on the snowy side of it on multiple runs within 3 days to believe it......

[MJO812]

Epo on the euro looks very good. The strength goes down as time goes on.

[TJW014]

Awesome sunrise this morning! I only now realized that I had the wrong ISO setting (It was on 3200 instead of 100) and there was quite a bit of "noise", which I tried to get rid of.

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

that's why its important not to keep believing some of these models with the day 7 -10  snowstorms which some have been showing all winter - now the EURO is showing a SECS or  MECS for next week  - early - mid week - have to wait till it shows the storm and we are on the snowy side of it on multiple runs within 3 days to believe it......

The effective limit to OP Euro midlatitude storm track accuracy is about 5 days. The EPS day 6-10 does well with general teleconnections.

[Brian5671]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The effective limit to OP Euro midlatitude storm track accuracy is about 5 days. The EPS day 6-10 does well with general teleconnections.

I'm not sure why people do play by play on OP model runs past 6 days....

[Juliancolton]

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I'm not sure why people do play by play on OP model runs

Violently agree