TwcMan Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 2:53 PM, bluewave said: Big MJO improvements today on the models. All the models now get to phase 8 by mid-February. Hopefully, we see the GEFS and CMC join the EPS with the more -EPO mid-February. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml Expand Best look of the season thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Cmc has a good pattern but suppression is a danger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 4:26 PM, bluewave said: If the MJO can progress through 8 to 1, then we have a legit shot at a -EPO for mid to late February. Phase 1 in February is one of the strongest -EPO phases. Expand Yes but we have to take into account the lag times. The EPS has the fastest progression to phase 8 (Feb 11), the others don't get there till the 16/17th, so we may not even see the results until last week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 4:32 PM, SnoSki14 said: Yes but we have to take into account the lag times. The EPS has the fastest progression to phase 8 (Feb 11), the others don't get there till the 16/17th, so we may not even see the results until last week of Feb. Expand Still not too late, especially after experiencing the epic March and April last year. Obviously I doubt we see that again, but even 33.33% of that would be more than welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 Already 49, 3 above forecast high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Gfs gives us a snow event next Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 4:52 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Gfs gives us a snow event next Monday Expand Euro has something early next week too - but in this pattern and winter that's a long ways away to even take seriously….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 49F before noon with an expected high of 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Mid-February. Wow. Something great is coming up soon. Looky here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 4:17 PM, Snow88 said: Cmc has a good pattern but suppression is a danger Expand Oy.SMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 4:17 PM, Snow88 said: Cmc has a good pattern but suppression is a danger Expand any proof of that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Overacheiving temps today, 48 now. Make a run at 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 5:10 PM, NEG NAO said: any proof of that ? Expand Cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 5:03 PM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Mid-February. Wow. Something great is coming up soon. Looky here: Expand Gefs has the mjo going into 8 but with a higher magnitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 5:34 PM, Snow88 said: Cmc Expand that's it ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 2:30 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Today is going to be a decent day, it’ll feel balmy to be honest it’s supposed to go up to 43 in the city that’s above average isn’t it Expand yes , not bad this afternoon but by game time tonight it looks to be a little too cold out for us to watch the game outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 this is a good look - no suppression problems here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 EWR is now 51 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 5:03 PM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Mid-February. Wow. Something great is coming up soon. Expand Someone in another thread made an argument that normal Nino MJO phases wouldn't apply in a winter without Nino forcing. Or at the very least it wouldn't have as much of an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 5:52 PM, donsutherland1 said: EWR is now 51 degrees. Expand I feel this will be a common theme with highs well above forecast temps. The only time this doesn't apply is during Arctic outbreaks and BDCF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Gfs para has a snowstorm and almost a blizzard after followed by a snow to ice storm. After this weeks rain. Hasn’t looked this good all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 5:54 PM, SnoSki14 said: Someone in another thread made an argument that normal Nino MJO phases wouldn't apply in a winter without Nino forcing. Or at the very least it wouldn't have as much of an impact. Expand And last year, we went through Phase 8 through late February. Did that person forget the La Niña from last winter? The point is the effects aren't too different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 5:55 PM, SnoSki14 said: I feel this will be a common theme with highs well above forecast temps. The only time this doesn't apply is during Arctic outbreaks and BDCF. Expand It sure seems like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Feels like spring outside. 47F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 the last 30 days averaged 30.8 in Central Park...the average coldest 30 day period is 29.0 since 1930...probably the coldest 30 day period of the winter...last year the city had 30 days that averaged 27.1 from Dec into Jan...2015 had one averaging 23.9...1977 has the lowest in recent times at 21.9...1997-98 has the highest at 37.3...2016-17 had one at 36.4... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 This mid-Feb period is the narrow window I was referencing last week. Period with a true phase 8 forcing, less hostile Pac side and potential for +PNA. If we're gonna pull off a snow storm, that's your best chance for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 6:39 PM, NittanyWx said: This mid-Feb period is the narrow window I was referencing last week. Period with a true phase 8 forcing, less hostile Pac side and potential for +PNA. If we're gonna pull off a snow storm, that's your best chance for Feb. Expand I don't think we'll see a +PNA, looks mostly -EPO driven with eventual Atlantic blocking. Best case it ends up like Feb 1969. A higher amplitude phase 8-1 would be ideal, so I'm rooting for the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Euro looked like crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 5:54 PM, SnoSki14 said: Someone in another thread made an argument that normal Nino MJO phases wouldn't apply in a winter without Nino forcing. Or at the very least it wouldn't have as much of an impact. Expand Only phase 7 is different in Nino vs. Nina. 7 is bad in Nina But phase 3 becomes good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 On 2/3/2019 at 7:11 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Euro looked like crap Expand yes and suppression was not the problem …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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