Stormlover74 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 With only 4 days left in January let's start discussing the 3rd and final month of meteorological winter. Will February prove to be snowy or another dud in what has so far been a dud winter for the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 9:10 PM, NEG NAO said: First of all your links don't work and secondly aren't they protected by copyrights ? Or do you have permission from Weather Bell to post them here ? Expand Well these are really public info, but if they do not work, they must be protected. Will delete. Try this below, which does conflict with tendency shown on WxBell. It showed AN after the front end cold. A little confused here. If this is WxBell calculations, why does JB keep blabbing about a cold Feb-Mar? He speaks in riddles and has used too many analogs to foster his views. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/ In addition both the GEPS, GEFS do not look BN after Day 6/7, as many have noted. Feb. is not getting off on the right side of the SE ridge, if it expects to finish BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 9:55 PM, CIK62 said: Well these are really public info, but if they do not work, they must be protected. Will delete. Try this below, which does conflict with tendency shown on WxBell. It showed AN after the front end cold. A little confused here. If this is WxBell calculations, why does JB keep blabbing about a cold Feb-Mar? He speaks in riddles and has used too many analogs to foster his views. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/ In addition both the GEPS, GEFS do not look BN after Day 6/7, as many have noted. Feb. is not getting off on the right side of the SE ridge, if it expects to finish BN. Expand Not arguing just trying to learn (I actually welcome sone warm temps), but why do the CFS weeklies attached show only 1 above normal temp week? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019012712&fh=504 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 10:32 PM, EastonSN+ said: Not arguing just trying to learn (I actually welcome sone warm temps), but why do the CFS weeklies attached show only 1 above normal temp week? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019012712&fh=504 Expand It is nice to know the future, but the Skill Level on these CFS outputs does not make the grade. It gave virtual certitude of an AN November that we know crashed and burned. Analogs are just that, analogs. Two people may look a lot alike, but not be related at all and have completely different mental and physical abilities. Some group of mathematicians have determined that this method is better than plain guessing in the very long run. But if you just say AN for every month w/o any considerations, you will be right 55%+ of the time anyway. Remember if Jan. finishes AN, then for the last 64 months the record will be 43AN 21BN. With the current 30-year normal, there are just more AN months. If I told you there were 55 Red Balls and 45 Blue Balls, all identical, inside an opaque drum---why would you say the one ball you choose would be blue? By the way, the same reasoning must apply to the 16 day OP. Why stop there? Let it ramble on and on! Well, again, some group must have determined that Day 16 has the same validity of being meaningful as dart throwing. Don't waste precious computation time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Next storm to watch is next weekend. Possible gradient type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 6:49 PM, Snow88 said: Next storm to watch is next weekend. Possible gradient type storm. Expand rain-coast snow-inland. Although I dont see anything happening for next weekend and our milder pattern with temps in the mid 40s begins on Sunday with 50s by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 6:49 PM, Snow88 said: Next storm to watch is next weekend. Possible gradient type storm. Expand only thing on the table as of today is this for late Friday - a weak disturbance - time to understand that this pattern we have been in for quite a while is protecting the coast from Boston south from any significant frozen precip and nothing is in site as of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/29/2019 at 2:53 PM, NEG NAO said: only thing on the table as of today is this for late Friday - a weak disturbance - time to understand that this pattern we have been in for quite a while is protecting the coast from Boston south from any significant frozen precip and nothing is in site as of today. Expand I was just about to post about this wave. Latest Euro is trending north with it. Maybe an inch or 2 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Latest mjo of the euro is now going into 8. Big change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/29/2019 at 3:35 PM, Snow88 said: Latest mjo of the euro is now going into 8. Big change. Expand you are assuming this is going to be accurate - not a good idea ass u me - especially this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/29/2019 at 3:52 PM, NEG NAO said: you are assuming this is going to be accurate - not a good idea ass u me - especially this winter Expand And even if it does magically get to phase 8, they'll likely be a lag before the pattern turns favorable. This takes you into late Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/29/2019 at 3:57 PM, SnoSki14 said: And even if it does magically get to phase 8, they'll likely be a lag before the pattern turns favorable. This takes you into late Feb. Expand What lag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/29/2019 at 3:52 PM, NEG NAO said: you are assuming this is going to be accurate - not a good idea ass u me - especially this winter Expand Who is assuming? That is what it shows. Looks way better this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Fv3 and ICON pushed north for Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/29/2019 at 5:37 PM, Ericjcrash said: Fv3 and ICON pushed north for Friday night. Expand Yep. Nice little event if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 On 1/29/2019 at 5:46 PM, Snow88 said: Yep. Nice little event if it verifies. Expand Euro still wants no part of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Brief warmup on the euro and then a coastal storm on day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 I posted this in the Jan thread but this isn’t a bad look at all for February. We’ll see if it holds or trends better with time. MJO is heading into p8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 EPS looks great from the 10th on. We'll see if it holds, but the MJO likely progressing into P8 makes this believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 So now if the models start pushing that 2/10 date back, we can say yeah forget about it. Let's hope we start to actually approach the real change to snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 On 1/30/2019 at 9:55 PM, JustinRP37 said: So now if the models start pushing that 2/10 date back, we can say yeah forget about it. Let's hope we start to actually approach the real change to snowy. Expand The pattern still isn’t good enough even at the end of the EPS if the NAO isn’t negative. You can see purely for example purposes that at the end of the Day 10 Op Euro we are about to get another cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 On 1/30/2019 at 9:59 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The pattern still isn’t good enough even at the end of the EPS if the NAO isn’t negative. You can see purely for example purposes that at the end of the Day 10 Op Euro we are about to get another cutter. Expand One reason why I am just ready for this awful winter to be over. It is either rainy and warm or bone cold and dry. Not much room for outdoor sports and exercise. I would have already taken a vacation since the rain really brings me down, but with a 4 month old that can be hard. We are hoping to get to Vermont next month though to see some real snow. At one point we had more days with rain than we had dry days in his young life. I am hoping that we at least get out of this wet pattern by summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Temperatures are falling quickly. 16F now off of 34F, an 18 degree drop in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 They called for a good second half of JAN to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 12z temps tomorrow by model: GFS: 4 FV3: ~2-3 3km NAM: 4 12km NAM: ~2-3 HRRR: 1 CMC: ~4-5 HRDPS: 0 RGEM: ~-1 ARW: 0 NMM: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 On 1/30/2019 at 10:36 PM, Dan76 said: They called for a good second half of JAN to Expand Didn't have any MJO support for that. And we did get 2 good storms, they just didn't work out for PHI-BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 On 1/30/2019 at 10:36 PM, Dan76 said: They called for a good second half of JAN to Expand And it did happen but not here. Everything is going as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 On 1/30/2019 at 10:50 PM, Snow88 said: And it did happen but not here. Everything is going as planned. Expand Would you stop with the everything is going as planned business. Just a week ago nobody was calling for a spike in temperatures to start February. Go back the middle of December and people were saying shortly after the New Year and the MJO was heading to the right phases. What happened? It did not work out. Forward to just a few weeks ago, February is looking better. Then boom, spike in temperatures shows up. While I hope February 10th we really see some snow, but no nothing went as 'planned' this winter. Most people's long range forecasts busted in December and have further busted in January. The only thing I might get right on my own LR forecast is +1.5 to +2.5F on DJF temperatures. My snowfall of 100-120% average is likely going to bust and bust hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 On 1/30/2019 at 9:53 PM, Stormlover74 said: Expand John's knowledge and ability to articulate such are almost unparalleled, but I've noticed over the last couple seasons that his cold/snow bias has been showing through. He always seems to have a reason for optimism, which is great for us winter devotees... I just wonder whether it's the best thing to always present uncertainty in grand winter terms. Once in a while, it's nice to lay it out flat and say, "the next 2 weeks or so will have mild periods, and a range of potential outcomes exists after that." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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