MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 18z NAM at 4pm. ~0.25" qpf falls after that in the DC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, MN Transplant said: 18z NAM at 4pm. ~0.25" qpf falls after that in the DC metro area. That looks like great omega in the DGZ? Or am I reading that wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I wouldn't be surprised if this one moistens up a bit, every storm has been wetter in this pattern, even if it's rain. Yep, seasonal trends are important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: That looks like great omega in the DGZ? Or am I reading that wrong? We'd want the peak omegas a little higher. Here's the 3km from TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: We'd want the peak omegas a little higher. Here's the 3km from TT Wow, that's a great sounding for SN+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: Wow, that's a great sounding for SN+. Rippin' fatties on that 3k sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Yesterday was the Carmageddon 2011 anniversary. Any dynamic similarities? I remember that was rain that morning. https://wjla.com/traffic/metro/2011-snowtowrm-hits-one-year-anniversary-71935 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, WVclimo said: Will be interesting to see what LWX does with this product later, given the 12Z guidance: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, WVclimo said: dang. Not quite sure why this front doesn't seem to want to work out for Central VA but it really does not. 3K NAM straight blanked me. Still time to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, Hurricanegiants said: LWX 2:58 The second complicated period will be during the afternoon and evening as the cold front crosses the area. Due to the sharp temperature gradient and a secondary area of low pressure forming along the front in Virginia, precipitation is likely to persist in the cold air for a few hours before ending by late Tuesday evening. So rain will be changing to snow, which could be briefly intense and overwhelm relatively warm surface temperatures. While this looks like an advisory level event with respect to snow amounts, it could have a high impact as the transition could occur during the evening rush hour in the Metro corridor. Then as temperatures crash, any residual moisture and slush could freeze on roadways during the evening/overnight. There is still a good deal of uncertainty regarding the timing blah blah Ok that may be one of the only flash freeze scenarios that might have a real chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Rippin' fatties on that 3k sounding. 11 minutes ago, nj2va said: Wow, that's a great sounding for SN+. And right at 5pm for maximum impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Can somebody give me their take on what temp will be at BWI for Tues 6pm, wed 6am, wed 6pm and thurs 6am thanks www.nws.noaa.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 29 minutes ago, Chase said: Yesterday was the Carmageddon 2011 anniversary. Any dynamic similarities? I remember that was rain that morning. https://wjla.com/traffic/metro/2011-snowtowrm-hits-one-year-anniversary-71935 Not really...more defined system and most areas got over 6” with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 8 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Not really...more defined system and most areas got over 6” with that If we get area wide SN+ between 3-6 pm and it’s 40 degrees at noon. I guarantee it will wreak havoc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: If we get area wide SN+ between 3-6 pm and it’s 40 degrees at noon. I guarantee it will wreak havoc I’m not saying it won’t wreak any havoc I’m just saying I don’t think it’s that comparable of a system in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 The updated LWX snowfall map pretty closes follows the 18Z GFS. 1-2 near the cities with a bit more N/W in the usual spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 47 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: dang. Not quite sure why this front doesn't seem to want to work out for Central VA but it really does not. 3K NAM straight blanked me. Still time to change. No doubt man, not getting the fropa love down here in Cville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSF Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 If that is the scenario we end up with on Tuesday (SN+ around rush hour) I hope the city school system has the good sense to close early. Otherwise the afternoon run around to pick up the kids is going to be a cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 18z GFS is pretty impressive with QPF, similar to the Euro. 0.4-0.5”...I hope the models are overdoing the BL warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 34 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: If we get area wide SN+ between 3-6 pm and it’s 40 degrees at noon. I guarantee it will wreak havoc Agree. Ground is warm but not crazy warm. Has t been 50-60 for a week. Mostly Every night has been below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 18z tuesday is interesting on the soundings. 18z gfs is a little too warm up through about 925mb. 3k nam is a good bit colder at the same time. Gfs: 3k: The only thing standing in the way from maximizing this event is boundary conditions up to 925mb or so at onset. Gfs shaved 2 degrees off the lower column from 12z but still too warm. I really like the 3k's sounding... so I'll be hugging that for now until something better comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z tuesday is interesting on the soundings. 18z gfs is a little too warm up through about 925mb. 3k nam is a good bit colder at the same time. Gfs: 3k: The only thing standing in the way from maximizing this event is boundary conditions up to 925mb or so at onset. Gfs shaved 2 degrees off the lower column from 12z but still too warm. I really like the 3k's sounding... so I'll be hugging that for now until something better comes along. Besides the weenie handbook, I’d almost always go with the 3k over the GFS with getting BL temps correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 40 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I’m not saying it won’t wreak any havoc I’m just saying I don’t think it’s that comparable of a system in my opinion Havoc??! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I think something is definitely off with the GFS temps. The surface never gets above 35 here. If you look at the column max temperature map. That max temperature in the entire column is at the surface. So I would think we would see very little rain. Or I am just reading it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Nice crisp winter morning on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Tony Pann's take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 If that trough could be just a little sharper and dig a little more, we would be in business. Definitely worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 The two money panels for the FV3 are missing on TT but it drops 0.5” of QPF over DC and pretty much all of central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 RGEM gets snow into my area at 09Z Tuesday morning. It is interesting that it has a little bit more precip ahead of the front. I am interested to see the 0Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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