psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 45 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: And here Ji was upset the Euro was taking away his 8 inches and only giving him 6 yesterday. Wonder how he will take this. This would be funny except for the fact it’s taking away OUR snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: All our busts have happened inside 24-48. Give it time. Disaster incoming. Actually, every storm this year has looked good in medium range, crapped out in the 48-72hr range, then come back strong in the last 36-48hrs. Not saying it will happen like that again, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Actually, every storm this year has looked good in medium range, crapped out in the 48-72hr range, then come back strong in the last 36-48hrs. Not saying it will happen like that again, but... I agree! The Euro does this quite frequently. I’m seeing on Twitter (Cranky) that the GFS has snow for us on Tuesday night. It is way too early to give up on anything. Even if it is a few hours of rain changing to snow, following by a deep freeze for 2 -3 days. That can be fairly significant in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Can't throw in the towel on this event yet. Still time, could be really fun, and it's the only thing we've got right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I’m gonna hold on to this one until tomorrow morning. We still haven’t got in the real short range yet. Jumping ship without the meso models in realistic range seems stupid to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 The NAM still looks fun for a couple hours at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: The NAM still looks fun for a couple hours at least. We have a precedent for this with arctic front heavy squall amazing 15 minutes kind of deal. I’m in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, dallen7908 said: I agree that really captures the mood around here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 06UT GFS COBB http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb_help.pdf shows 3+ hours of snow or rain/snow at DCA (4 - ~7 PM Tuesday evening). Total precipitation is on the 0.5". Temperature at 3 PM is 40 degrees so. Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% 190129/2200Z 64 32013KT 32.1F SNOW 8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119 8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 100| 0| 0 190129/2300Z 65 30011KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 66| 0| 34 190130/0000Z 66 31012KT 31.5F SNOW 20:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 11:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0 190130/0100Z 67 31010KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 11:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 78| 0| 22 Indeed so quiet hear ... and I doubt we're all at Sunday services Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 57 minutes ago, LP08 said: The NAM still looks fun for a couple hours at least. that's what this is. with a low heading into the great lakes dragging a cold front with it, i'm not sure how much max potential there is with this, but if we can get a summer style squall or two out of it, then it should coat. i'm not expecting a 6 hour snowstorm with this, but if a flukey low can develop overhead, then who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Was it in ‘15, that the bad-ass squall dropped 1.5-2” in an hour? I want that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, T. August said: Was it in ‘15, that the bad-ass squall dropped 1.5-2” in an hour? I want that again. Yup. That was mid Feb, and it got winter going that year. I ended up with 3 here. That was a crazy/fun event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, dallen7908 said: 06UT GFS COBB http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb_help.pdf shows 3+ hours of snow or rain/snow at DCA (4 - ~7 PM Tuesday evening). Total precipitation is on the 0.5". Temperature at 3 PM is 40 degrees so. Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% 190129/2200Z 64 32013KT 32.1F SNOW 8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119 8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 100| 0| 0 190129/2300Z 65 30011KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 66| 0| 34 190130/0000Z 66 31012KT 31.5F SNOW 20:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 11:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0 190130/0100Z 67 31010KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 11:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 78| 0| 22 Indeed so quiet hear ... and I doubt we're all at Sunday services I just got in from church. I prayed that all the insanity here goes away. ;). Wow 20:1 as it ends...should be some fun snowTV at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 10 minutes ago, 87storms said: that's what this is. with a low heading into the great lakes dragging a cold front with it, i'm not sure how much max potential there is with this, but if we can get a summer style squall or two out of it, then it should coat. i'm not expecting a 6 hour snowstorm with this, but if a flukey low can develop overhead, then who knows. It’s always hard to see high end solutions and watch them back off as we move in. We should still see some snow and accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 LOL. The 6Z Euro caved to the ICON. I will never talk smack about that model again if this verifies. On the bright side if the ICON is right it hits us nicely on Friday/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I wonder if Birmingham, AL or DC will get more snow from this. Could be close lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 LP off Florida coast is much slower this 12z run than at 6z. Maybe waiting for the cold front to interact with? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 12z GFS and 6z FV3 still look decent. FV3 gives 3-4 inches areawide. Wonder if maybe the euro windshield wipes back a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Oh, I’m talking about mby. I just wanted to post in a place that knows what it’s like to see snow Russell Crowe Javert is a very apt GIF: lots of hype and noise and ultimately extraordinarily disappointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 GFS is still a good event. Model mayhem at such a short lead. Exactly what we expected. We wont know anything until it is right on top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: 12z GFS and 6z FV3 still look decent. FV3 gives 3-4 inches areawide. Wonder if maybe the euro windshield wipes back a bit. If you believe the CMC, our surface temps are borderline so we lose a fair bit to rain or non-accumulating snow (I don’t have soundings but I would imagine the warm layer is super shallow and confined to the surface). QPF is pretty good with 0.3-0.4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 DC to Frederick FTW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: If you believe the CMC, our surface temps are borderline so we lose a fair bit to rain or non-accumulating snow (I don’t have soundings but I would imagine the warm layer is super shallow and confined to the surface). QPF is pretty good with 0.3-0.4”. Yeah it looks like the bulk of the precip falls between 18z (temps 37-38) and 00z (temps 34-35) in DC with 850s <0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I’m taking the Jeb approach and being optimistic. We are getting shellacked and then will have some bitter cold for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 GFS is fine for a 1-2”er. I need Queen FV3 and and King Euro to come around though before I put down @showmethesnow dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, Scraff said: GFS is fine for a 1-2”er. I need Queen FV3 and and King Euro to come around though before I put down @showmethesnow dollars. FV3 gives Fairfax Co around 4”. Works for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: FV3 gives Fairfax Co around 4”. Works for me! Wow really good run of FV3, models going different directions, really hope it’s right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, Scraff said: GFS is fine for a 1-2”er. I need Queen FV3 and and King Euro to come around though before I put down @showmethesnow dollars. Not sure I would put my money on it just yet. That is if I still had it (Vegas is now the proud owner of everything, wife is still a little pissed about losing the house but whatever). If we continue to see a weakening and adjustment northwestward of the energy tracking through our general region I think even us up in the favored locals to the north and west will struggle to see an inch or two. Also haven't liked the tendencies we are seeing with the lift between 850 and the 700s. We need to see a stop to the bleeding here if not a full reversal otherwise we are close to losing just about everything. Haven't looked over any of the 12Z guidance as of yet and probably won't till later this afternoon so hopefully there are some positives to glean from it. And we have 3 days to get this right so hope is still alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I’m not thrilled that the gfs has shifted the axis of the precip slightly east the last 3 runs. That’s heading towards the fail icon/euro look. ETA: it’s still good as is but I don’t like it moving towards a later developing wave, if that trend continues in future runs it could join the fail camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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