MD Snow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Ha at gfs and euro switching places with this threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Gfs nearly identical to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 48 minutes ago, nj2va said: My bar is at 0.5”...more than that and I’m happy considering we don’t usually do well in these types of setups. I think that is realistic. With maybe some 2 inch lollies. Someone will get under a heavier band but it is based on the speed of the frontal passage with the energy riding the front. The ICON has that energy staying behind longer so the NE gets it instead of us. Everything is still on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I think that is realistic. With maybe some 2 inch lollies. Someone will get under a heavier band but it is based on the speed of the frontal passage with the energy riding the front. The ICON has that energy staying behind longer so the NE gets it instead of us. Everything is still on the table at this point. I've been really hesitant to set a bar on this one. When guidance was showing neg tilt and a low popping on the front it could easily be a pretty decent event. That idea is fading unfortunately. We'll still likely see some snow fall and prob some accums but the energetic version would have been far better. Still time but it has the feel of a mid range model error and we're getting a clearer picture now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I've been really hesitant to set a bar on this one. When guidance was showing neg tilt and a low popping on the front it could easily be a pretty decent event. That idea is fading unfortunately. We'll still likely see some snow fall and prob some accums but the energetic version would have been far better. Still time but it has the feel of a mid range model error and we're getting a clearer picture now. Didn't the most recent euro have this? 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I've been really hesitant to set a bar on this one. When guidance was showing neg tilt and a low popping on the front it could easily be a pretty decent event. That idea is fading unfortunately. We'll still likely see some snow fall and prob some accums but the energetic version would have been far better. Still time but it has the feel of a mid range model error and we're getting a clearer picture now. Didn't the most recent euro have this? 12z? It did but the trough isn't nearly as sharp or negative as the 12z run yesterday. If that's reality then upside is pretty limited from what we're seeing at 0z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Cmc isn't bad. Keeps precip all snow from I95 and west and drops 1-3/2-4 for most of us. Eta: prob 1-3" at best. Surface temps will eat some snow at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Fv3 looks good imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: Fv3 looks good imo It does. Gfs is still dropping .50 qpf through much of the region and fv3 isn't that much less. If the gfs has surface temps and mids wrong it would make things more interesting. Fv3 was colder in the mids and surface. Icon is the only global that stinks tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 It does. Gfs is still dropping .50 qpf through much of the region and fv3 isn't that much less. If the gfs has surface temps and mids wrong it would make things more interesting. Fv3 was colder in the mids and surface. Icon is the only global that stinks tonight. Icon is only model showing late week potential too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It does. Gfs is still dropping .50 qpf through much of the region and fv3 isn't that much less. If the gfs has surface temps and mids wrong it would make things more interesting. Fv3 was colder in the mids and surface. Icon is the only global that stinks tonight. I’m super cautious with this setup in terms of accumulations but I think we can all agree that the gfs really stinks with surface temps and meso features in setups like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It does. Gfs is still dropping .50 qpf through much of the region and fv3 isn't that much less. If the gfs has surface temps and mids wrong it would make things more interesting. Fv3 was colder in the mids and surface. Icon is the only global that stinks tonight. Icon is only model showing late week potential too lol Yea, that's a bit of a paradox. Gfs is building a west based -nao inside of 10 days and almost forces a guaranteed cutter under us. So we hug the fv3 for tues, the icon for next weekend, and gfs next tuesday. Sounds like a plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 It's starting. Get the shovels ready. You're gonna need 'em! @BobChill Get the FACE ready. You'll be using it --- A LOT. I thought Dale City got 5 inches with that last snow. A friend I was talkin to today set me straight. It was TEN inches. Just WOW! That means Dale City has had 11.5 on the season already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 hours ago, Chris78 said: That storm will be burned into my memory forever. Took me 6 hours to go from Frederick to Smithsburg On I -70. Some of the most intense rates I've ever experienced. Me too. Sideways fire hose snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 The latest from LWX: SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Tranquil weather Mon through Mon evening as weak high pressure builds in. Precip with next frontal passage moving through the Great Lks will start moving in after 06Z Tue in the Allegheny Highlands and spread across the rest of the area through the day Tue and finally exit the area around midnight Tue night. Snow is expected across the mtns with a rain/snow mix along the I-81 corridor and along the Mason Dixon line and rain east of Rt 15 and south of I-70 through about 21Z. Colder air will start filtering in more quickly late Tue and Tue evening with rain changing to snow from west to east as cold front progresses through the area. Precip will change to snow everywhere before ending around 03Z Wed. Due to warm bdry layer temps, only about an inch or two of wet snow is expected mostly falling during the early evening hrs. Highest accumulations are expected along the Rt 15 corridor from Loudoun County north and north of I-70. The WPC 95th and EPS percentiles are about 4 inches with this storm, so only winter weather advisories are anticipated with this system and only for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 The overnight EPS has pretty much locked into a solution at this point as evidenced by the tight clustering of lows around the panhandle of WV. This mirrors closely the op run. 6 hours later we do see a little divergence but they still carry a common theme. They are for the most part running that energy through or north of the MD region. This is not so promising for our snow chances as that energy is pretty much riding the boundary between the colder and warmer air. This is a setup where we probably start as rain waiting impatiently for a flip over to snow. To be expected, the farther north you are the better your chances as the low may slide under you and/or you are in a better position to still have decent moisture available as the cold moves in. Now compare the above to what we were seeing just on yesterdays 00Z. Notice we had quite a bit of spread for the same time period with many of the lows showing up to our south and deep south. A much more promising look as these southern lows suggested that the cold would be available as the moisture ran in. Hence the better snowfall maps and higher ratio snow some of the models were spitting out. Now you may ask yourself why we are seeing such a difference in just 24 hours. I believe it has to do with how the model was handling the SE coastal low earlier in the period. Below we have a snapshot from yesterdays 00Z run. This run featured the closest interaction between that coastal and the Midwest low and its associated cold front of any of the EPS runs. What we were probably seeing was that the coastal was leaving some energy and/or weakness behind in the southeast and off the coast for the system in the Midwest to key on. So we were seeing lows forming in the deep south and a little later in time off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Now compare the above to the latest run. Much greater separation between the two as the coastal is tracking farther OTS and departing quicker. This solution is not leaving anything for our Midwest system to key on. At this point in time I will probably be focusing on the op run and not so much with the ensembles because we are sitting around 3 days for this system and the op and ensembles are in good agreement. Probably only glance at the EPS to see if we see a camp of ensemble runs begin to diverge from consensus because after all the setup is somewhat volatile. Will probably also glance at the snowfall maps to get an idea if there may be some discrepancy on the temp profiles with the op. But besides that the op is probably what we need to focus on. Overall I haven't liked what I have seen on the recent model runs for our snow chances. Think the warmer solutions we are now seeing are in fact probably closer to the reality then the colder previous runs. So those higher snowfall outputs will not probably be attained and the lower end projections are probably more in line. But we still have 3 days with a setup that is conducive for surprises so you just never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie drops .30- .40" qpf What areas, NOVA and MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 What areas, NOVA and MDNo Chicago and Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: No Chicago and Detroit Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Looks like DC on north per meteocentre Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Lighter shade of green is .30 roughly Falls after the temps are good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Don’t look at the 06z euro. It’s very ugly. Looks like a “game over” run for this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Qpf range ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: And here Ji was upset the Euro was taking away his 8 inches and only giving him 6 yesterday. Wonder how he will take this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: And here Ji was upset the Euro was taking away his 8 inches and only giving him 6 yesterday. Wonder how he will take this. Connecticut looks a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Connecticut looks a little better Come on, admit it. We all knew in our hearts how this would play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Come on, admit it. We all knew in our hearts how this would play out. Reading the new england thread they were all a bunch of Ji's after the 0z euro. Now after the 6z euro it's a bunch of AWT. I suppose one thing has been certain this year is the late game north adjustment...congrats Montreal and Nova Scotia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I honestly thought this would be snow tv in 4K. Now I have to pull out the rabbit ears and pray I can dial in a snowflake on my 13” black & white. Anyway—we got anything else to look forward besides next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 What happened to the cutlery content? We all know it's over. We're should go to the panic room and move onSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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