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January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA


WxUSAF

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Meh, I was kinda disappointed in this event. My roads are just wet and I just ended up with a coating. That dry slot really hurt me before the final hurrah, which was pretty good but very brief and the lull was too much to overcome in terms of getting street accumulation in the end. Happy for those that had a great event though. Sounds like the western part of our region did really well, and it was nice for our far NW friends to finally get something. Beautiful outside though, that's for sure, especially during the final hurrah.

Seemed to me like the Euro did the best job by far. Pretty much nailed the storm. NAM was far too jumpy and GFS and FV3 were too high on totals. Euro pretty much nailed this by giving highest totals to the northwest folks and decreasing totals to an inch as you got to 95 and then almost nothing toward the bay.

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7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Meh, I was kinda disappointed in this event. My roads are just wet and I just ended up with a coating. That dry slot really hurt me before the final hurrah, which was pretty good but very brief and the lull was too much to overcome in terms of getting street accumulation in the end. Happy for those that had a great event though. Sounds like the western part of our region did really well, and it was nice for our far NW friends to finally get something. Beautiful outside though, that's for sure, especially during the final hurrah.

Seemed to me like the Euro did the best job by far. Pretty much nailed the storm. NAM was far too jumpy and GFS and FV3 were too high on totals. Euro pretty much nailed this by giving highest totals to the northwest folks and decreasing totals to an inch as you got to 95 and then almost nothing toward the bay.

Yeah the Euro did well overall. It did have accums east of the bay though, although it dropped it below an inch at 12z. NAMs were too low on the snow overall where it did fall, but in the end totally nailed the low level warmth on the coastal plain and had zero snow east of I-95. That verified, although maybe the lower eastern shore can salvage a coating from those bands moving NE from eastern VA.

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8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


Hmmm... probably gonna go 1.5” then.

All us N Arlington people should have a meet-up in the summer. Lively company and Backyard BBQ!

 

It’s hard to say whether it’s 1.25, 1.3, 1.5, etc.  I know it’s somewhere more than 1” but definitely less than 2”!

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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah the Euro did well overall. It did have accums east of the bay though, although it dropped it below an inch at 12z. NAMs were too low on the snow overall where it did fall, but in the end totally nailed the low level warmth on the coastal plain and had zero snow east of I-95. That verified, although maybe the lower eastern shore can salvage a coating from those bands moving NE from eastern VA.

The NAM was definitely too low for those of us who are just N/W of the fall line. It was ok here, especially in the hills. But as you said, the low-level warmth was a good catch, and we went through several hours of white rain before it finally started accumulating. That's probably why the western areas did better.... they got the cold air first.

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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

The NAM was definitely too low for those of us who are just N/W of the fall line. It was ok here, especially in the hills. But as you said, the low-level warmth was a good catch, and we went through several hours of white rain before it finally started accumulating. That's probably why the western areas did better.... they got the cold air first.

Yeah the 3K went from a decent storm to literally no storm right before it came through.

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