jacindc Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I've decided to drive home Tuesday before onset, so I've guaranteed it will fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I mean, maybe this is a step back to just a quick squall line and you get your coating to an inch depending upon if you get the stronger part of the line or not, but it's one run. I'm not jumping yet. And just a squall line, if it's like some of the better ones we've had in the past, would still be a really fun event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 1:15 AM, Ji said: On 1/27/2019 at 1:09 AM, DCTeacherman said: Not sure why the snowmap is so fragmented. Expand Because its likely to bust Expand Nice bullseye! D.C. is the center of it all this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 what happened to the rock solid consistent euro...or do we not count the off runs(unless they give us more snow like as we got closer to Jan 11-12 lol). Anyway...i think we need to wait till 00z before we saw the euro blew it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Well the NAM is quite further off the coast with the Sunday/Monday coastal. Consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 2:29 AM, LP08 said: Well the NAM is quite further off the coast with the Sunday/Monday coastal. Consistent Expand Seems nothing has been consistent this winter, except the lack of snowfall. JK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Incoming FROPA will be way more energetic!!! No doubt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 NAM at range but....Nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I actually thought that was a disappointing run of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 18z looked more amped at h5 and had more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 2:47 AM, osfan24 said: I actually thought that was a disappointing run of the NAM. Expand It’s in line with other models qpf wise. I think the upside is like 0.4 qpf and that may be generous. But a burst of .25 in a short window will be fun nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 The NAM is tough to decipher. It is really hitting on a squally frontal passage at about 3z for the DC metro. What exactly is the precip type? I’m not sure I’d stick out my neck on either. Another thing to point out - the cold is relatively pedestrian with the frontal passage. It is the second pulse late in the day on Wednesday that really brings the chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 2:49 AM, LP08 said: It’s in line with other models qpf wise. I think the upside is like 0.4 qpf and that may be generous. But a burst of .25 in a short window will be fun nonetheless. Expand By the time the flip happens (if it does as each run the bl is increasingly warmer) most of the 700-850mb fronto lift is thru the area and flying on ENE. White rain at best. Hopefully we can cash in on some squalls associated with the PV pinwheeling around as it wobbles by to the N on wed-thurs. That may actually be the 'biggest event' of the week imo....not the fropa nor the upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 2:55 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: By the time the flip happens (if it does as each run the bl is increasingly warmer) most of the 700-850mb fronto lift is thru the area and flying on ENE. White rain at best. Hopefully we can cash in on some squalls associated with the PV pinwheeling around as it wobbles by to the N on wed-thurs. That may actually be the 'biggest event' of the week imo....not the fropa nor the upcoming weekend. Expand You know, I hadn’t looked at surface temps. Mid levels seemed ok but always assumed the surface would eventually be ok due to the big bad PV coming down. I still think the Fropa has legs for a fun couple of hours on Tuesday night. I’ve always thought this was a 1-3 type deal so I’m still sticking with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 3:00 AM, LP08 said: You know, I hadn’t looked at surface temps. Mid levels seemed ok but always assumed the surface would eventually be ok due to the big bad PV coming down. I still think the Fropa has legs for a fun couple of hours on Tuesday night. I’ve always thought this was a 1-3 type deal so I’m still sticking with that. Expand My bar is at 0.5”...more than that and I’m happy considering we don’t usually do well in these types of setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 2:55 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: By the time the flip happens (if it does as each run the bl is increasingly warmer) most of the 700-850mb fronto lift is thru the area and flying on ENE. White rain at best. Hopefully we can cash in on some squalls associated with the PV pinwheeling around as it wobbles by to the N on wed-thurs. That may actually be the 'biggest event' of the week imo....not the fropa nor the upcoming weekend. Expand Just looking back at the 18z GFS, the wind profile post-front quickly changes back to SWerly early in the day on Wednesday. The GFS doesn’t get any QPF to us with the good pulse late in the day on Wednesday, but that would be the perfect time for a squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 11:47 PM, Chris78 said: That storm will be burned into my memory forever. Took me 6 hours to go from Frederick to Smithsburg On I -70. Some of the most intense rates I've ever experienced. Expand Heaviest snow I've ever experienced in my life!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 0z isn't looking so good so far. Nam was so so and Icon is worse. Not seeing the wave develop on the tail of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 ICON is pretty terrible. Mostly dry throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 3:12 AM, Bob Chill said: 0z isn't looking so good so far. Nam was so so and Icon is worse. Not seeing the wave develop on the tail of the front. Expand Unfortunately the 18z Euro started that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 3:02 AM, MN Transplant said: Just looking back at the 18z GFS, the wind profile post-front quickly changes back to SWerly early in the day on Wednesday. The GFS doesn’t get any QPF to us with the good pulse late in the day on Wednesday, but that would be the perfect time for a squall. Expand NWS Mount Holly mentioned this afternoon they were monitoring for possible snow showers and squalls on Weds with the real push of cold air. I have not read any updates recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 One of the trends I don't like in the upper levels is guidance is moving away from the elongated pv and sharp negative tilt. The 12z euro run yesterday is one of the runs that looked really good at h5. That's shifted to a more run of the mill upper level setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 3:18 AM, Chris78 said: Unfortunately the 18z Euro started that trend. Expand Even within 90 hours on the ECM accuracy is poor. I guess a complex situation. Many here did mention alot could go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Wow how this quickly died...couldn't even make it till sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 3:19 AM, Bob Chill said: One of the trends I don't like in the upper levels is guidance is moving away from the elongated pv and sharp negative tilt. The 12z euro run yesterday is one of the runs that looked really good at h5. Expand Dissapointing dependability on the Euro, even at short range. I said yesterday rather have that model in my corner when all the other models were really not showing it. I beg to differ now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 3:21 AM, frd said: Even within 90 hours on the ECM accuracy is poor. I guess a complex situation. Many here did mention alot could go wrong. Expand Do you know how the 18z and 6z Euro runs are scoring compared to the traditional runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 3:22 AM, Ji said: Wow how this quickly died...couldn't even make it till sunday Expand At least you won't have to stay up late tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 3:24 AM, Chris78 said: Do you know how the 18z and 6z Euro runs are scoring compared to the traditional runs? Expand Not really, I follow several sources, but have not heard any stats about scoring on the 18z and 6z compared to traditional runs. What I have heard, as you know, those off hour runs of the Euro are useful for trend analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 3:24 AM, Bob Chill said: At least you won't have to stay up late tomorrowI've spent very little time on this threat thankfully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/27/2019 at 3:28 AM, Ji said: On 1/27/2019 at 3:24 AM, Bob Chill said: At least you won't have to stay up late tomorrow Expand I've spent very little time on this threat thankfully Expand The good thing is there's still enough time for it to come roaring back before it vaporizes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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