SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 NAM is a little colder but also a lot drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Real nice burst now Thanks..they just announced 2 hour early release so if I can finish my grade reports I can at least get home for the last few hours of this. And hopefully not repeat my 3 hour commute from November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 32 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Real nice burst now Best rates of the winter and like that the road is covered. My kids stuck at school till 11. Carroll county is going to regret not closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, lpaschall said: Best rates if the winter and like that the road is covered. My kids stuck at school till 11. Carrol county is going to regret not closing. Wonder if it's the southeast wind hitting Parrs Ridge. Seems like once the precip moves into Howard or Baltimore it fades out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJField Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: OPM 2 hr early dismissal. That is not verified on their web page, where are you seeing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, AJField said: That is not verified on their web page, where are you seeing that? Just got an email. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Given the difference in climo, its probably proportionally the same, maybe worse for you. Average snowfall here is 18-19", and I am at 6.4" thus far. A couple warning level events or one biggie and I am in the black. By those numbers you are slightly ahead of me wrt climo but we’re both bad and 6” is still 6”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Was 25 and snowing steadily when I left home. 30 and nada when I got to work in West Baltimore. A little piece of my soul dies everytime I leave snow to go to a place that is getting less. Oh the sacrifice! West Baltimore? Watch out for the falling bullets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigCountry Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Just got an email. The email came directly from OPM....because their app and their website do not reflect the information you are providing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Just got an email. Just now, BigCountry said: The email came directly from OPM....because their app and their website do not reflect the information you are providing? I deleted my post until it shows on the website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3K ouch. Where did the snow go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJField Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, BigCountry said: The email came directly from OPM....because their app and their website do not reflect the information you are providing? Just now, Eskimo Joe said: I deleted my post until it shows on the website. I am now intrigued, someone somewhere sent an email, which means in some backroom at OPM some decision maybe has been made and it has not been put on website yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigCountry Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, AJField said: I am now intrigued, someone somewhere sent an email, which means in some backroom at OPM some decision maybe has been made and it has not been put on website yet? He was correct. It is now posted..... https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I love my house. I just wish I could move it to Canaan. Looks beautiful in your pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJField Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 And now its on the website! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, AJField said: And now its on the website! OPM slow as usual with their website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Temps are a huge problem. I don't see how this is anything more than a last minute rain changing to snow with a dusting to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 34 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wonder if it's the southeast wind hitting Parrs Ridge. Seems like once the precip moves into Howard or Baltimore it fades out. It is. Perfect upslope trajectory. If I can maintain a cold enough profile a SE wind can dump. Got 12” in 3 hours from such an upslope enhanced band on the front side of the Feb 10 2010 storm when the primary was still to the west with a SE flow. That kind of thing is rare because it’s hard to get a strong SE flow and not wreck the temps. That storm wouldn’t have lasted much longer if the transfer didn’t happen. I was starting to mix with sleet after that 3 hour thump when the storm jumped and the WAA cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I just looked at the 3k NAM. Where’d the wave go? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3km took a big step back with the positioning and strength of the jet max over PA. Precip field was sliced, coupled with more marginal boundary layer temperatures, the end result is now in line with the HRRR. That was not a step in the right direction for the event. Still showing snow across the region by rush hour, but given the warming of temps above freezing all the way into southern PA, it would take longer for accumulation to occur. Lift through the DGZ is no where near as prolific either due to the lack of sufficient jet streak dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I just looked at the 3k NAM. Where’d the wave go? Lol Have to go with nowcast and hope the NAM busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Maybe it’s right. Doubt it. But the NAM just lost 50% of the qpf like 2 hours before the event after it trended wet the LAST run. Like bob said how is that useful. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: 3km took a big step back with the positioning and strength of the jet max over PA. Precip field was sliced, coupled with more marginal boundary layer temperatures, the end result is now in line with the HRRR. That was not a step in the right direction for the event. Still showing snow across the region by rush hour, but given the warming of temps above freezing all the way into southern PA, it would take longer for accumulation to occur. Lift through the DGZ is no where near as prolific either due to the lack of sufficient jet streak dynamics. Yikes... let's hope the 3k NAM and HRRR are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 nam is useless during the event. Makes no sense to me, but it always does this back and forth nonsense the day of a storm. I’d honestly look at the RAPP bedore using HRR or NAM for qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 45 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Haven't seen a flake. Shocking. I am not really feeling this one for us man. Next time maybe. The short range guidance says we get an inch. I will believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: 3km took a big step back with the positioning and strength of the jet max over PA. Precip field was sliced, coupled with more marginal boundary layer temperatures, the end result is now in line with the HRRR. That was not a step in the right direction for the event. Still showing snow across the region by rush hour, but given the warming of temps above freezing all the way into southern PA, it would take longer for accumulation to occur. Lift through the DGZ is no where near as prolific either due to the lack of sufficient jet streak dynamics. But the NAM jumps back and forth like this. 18z wet, 0z was dry, 6z wet, 12z dry. How do you know which run is correct. Yea it’s tempting to go with the latest but I’ve seen the NAM drastically cut qpf right at game time and be wrong before too. Don’t get me wrong I’m not dismissing a fryer weaker solution, I’ve kinda expected that all along. But the NAM itself seems useless in determining which way it will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 This doesn't seem promising, I guess: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: This doesn't seem promising, I guess: Cranky posted yesterday that the system did not seem impressive at all and was struggling to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I do think people in Baltimore and dc proper are going to be disappointed unless we get some better lift than the models are showing today. Light spotty precip isn’t going to overcome any sort of SE flow ahead of an “approaching” low. Anything is possible and it wouldn’t be the first time models all got it wrong. NJ NY and the NE has a better chance at this one than we do. They just have more time for the cold air to settle and they’ll have better dynamics to work with. Looking like warning level snowfalls are possible by my folks in the Hudson valley. They deserve it. They’ve been snubbed all year. My alma mater, buffalo, Is about to get smoked by a classic WSW Erie wind . I have serious FOMO about the snowfall they are about to see. Temps in the single digits with huge fluffy flakes and 12-18” in 16 hours time. Southtowns will likely see 2 feet within 24 hours. What a sight to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I'm not feeling this. next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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