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January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA


WxUSAF

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29 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I was noticing that too. There is a pretty stout area of PVA moving through in the PM around that time, so I wonder if a rumble of thunder is not out of the question. With lift like that through the DGZ, there should be some charge build up. We shall see

It's certainly possible, especially if we get a lot of graupel forming.

Getting some flurries here now.

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One of the big risks for the metro areas is torching of the boundary layers - the most recent 11z HRRR gets BL wet bulb temps up into the mid-upper 30s in the DC/Balt metro before the onset of the more significant precipitation and thus we waste a significant amount of QPF to rain or non-accumulating snow. I've read on here that the HRRR has a bias of increasing BL temps during lulls but it's something to keep an eye on as a possible way that this event may fail in the metro regions. (11z even torches all the way to the MD/PA border so it would be a fail for everyone).

6z 3K NAM and HRDRPS keep wet bulbs down in the low 30s but RGEM is similar to the bad run of the HRRR. 

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3 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

One of the big risks for the metro areas is torching of the boundary layers - the most recent 11z HRRR gets BL wet bulb temps up into the mid-upper 30s in the DC/Balt metro before the onset of the more significant precipitation and thus we waste a significant amount of QPF to rain or non-accumulating snow. I've read on here that the HRRR has a bias of increasing BL temps during lulls but it's something to keep an eye on as a possible way that this event may fail in the metro regions. (11z even torches all the way to the MD/PA border so it would be a fail for everyone).

It's funny how different some of the models are for this storm. Going to be interesting to see which one wins out. RGEM and HRRR have very little along and east of 95. GFS and FV3 are the most bullish. Seeing the GFS the most bullish is odd. NAM is kinda in the middle, with the Euro and CMC kinda between the NAM and HRRR.

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The 6z 3km NAM develops an enhanced band of snow over the central/lower eastern shore. Verbatim it misses my house by a few miles. This winter, that will definitely verify lol.

I hope at some point you get death banded. You deserve some snow. This year has been even worse for you than me. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I hope at some point you get death banded. You deserve some snow. This year has been even worse for you than me. 

Given the difference in climo, its probably proportionally the same, maybe worse for you. Average snowfall here is 18-19", and I am at 6.4" thus far. A couple warning level events or one biggie and I am in the black.

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Was 25 and snowing steadily when I left home. 30 and nada when I got to work in West Baltimore. A little piece of my soul dies everytime I leave snow to go to a place that is getting less. Oh the sacrifice!

Exactly how I feel everytime I leave Deep Creek or Davis, WV, and come back home.

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