SnowGolfBro Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: My P&C graph shows my temp rising slowly from 29 now to 32 by daybreak. Hitting 40 by 18z. Will be interesting tomorrow to see if I hit 40 or not. I guess I’m thinking there could be some CAD involved. I see the warm temps west of the mountains but not convinced we get out of the 30s tomorrow with cloud cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 00z GFS still looks decent to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: I guess I’m thinking there could be some CAD involved. I see the warm temps west of the mountains but not convinced we get out of the 30s tomorrow with cloud cover With low pressure to our nw there will be return flow in front of it with southerly winds. Nam 3k shows decent southerly surface winds overnight. This will advect in warmer air even when it's dark and clear. It's not really a CAD situation because that requires northerly winds and cold drain. It's insitu cad at best but colder than forecast at any point between now and onset is never a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 35 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I agree. We are done. And most of the guidance agrees with both of us. I'm expecting a t-1" here in Hagerstown. 2 days of east trends has been a buzz kill for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 15 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: What feature would cause temps to rise overnight? It’s currently 27 with no wind clear skies and a dew in the mid teens where i am. Not asking to stir controversy just curious will mostly be near freezing, with some warming starting as dawn approaches thanks to increasing southerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I'm expecting a t-1" here in Hagerstown. 2 days of east trends has been a buzz kill for us. Yeah, expecting the same here. I think central MD up to M/D line will do the best....PSU will get 4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: With low pressure to our nw there will be return flow in front of it with southerly winds. Nam 3k shows decent southerly surface winds overnight. This will advect in warmer air even when it's dark and clear. It's not really a CAD situation because that requires northerly winds and cold drain. It's insitu cad at best but colder than forecast at any point between now and onset is never a bad thing. Thanks Bob. Those Southerly winds could be a problem. But I’ve seen this happen where the forecast temps are relying on winds to blow (even modestly) and when they don’t it keeps temps down. Probably just the weenie in me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Can't wait till this event is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Can't wait till this event is done It’s a non event for you so it’s done already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ji said: Can't wait till this event is done I know what you mean. 60s next week are going to be awesome. On another note... remember I mentioned the wife and I might be moving to lake gaston when our teenagers are on their own? The conversation has changed. Now we're thinking about lake champlain. Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I know what you mean. 60s next week are going to be awesome. On another note... remember I mentioned the wife and I might be moving to lake gaston when our teenagers are on their own? The conversation has changed. Now we're thinking about lake champlain. Heh Haa... My wife and I were thinking Lake Anna for a while, then suddenly we bought in the Northern Outer Banks. This is my last chance at a good winter. Leaving in May for good. I went further south than my anticipated destination. You are still chasing. I commend you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I know what you mean. 60s next week are going to be awesome. On another note... remember I mentioned the wife and I might be moving to lake gaston when our teenagers are on their own? The conversation has changed. Now we're thinking about lake champlain. Heh I’m thinking of Lake Placid just so i can take pictures and troll Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 We are about to rock with some wild and wooly winter weather. We are cold again tonight , 29 here, and the ground doesn’t have much warmth. So rain to snow of unknown duration and intensity, then quite cold then bitter cold with some more snow action possible and then another. Meanwhile below zero windchills into the afternoon Thursday Yes it’s 4 days in length and not two weeks but not much is two weeks so love the winter weather we do have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Currently 29. Spot on with NWS hourly forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 The package that cometh looks radar goodeth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Running four degrees below NWS forecast, which is pretty solid. Hourly forecast has us getting rain for a solid part of the front, so minimizing temps as much as possible is going to be key. 28/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 This time it’s not 27 and rising because rise won’t start until 4/5am. Rising above freezing for 5 hours with overcast won’t warm the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I know what you mean. 60s next week are going to be awesome. On another note... remember I mentioned the wife and I might be moving to lake gaston when our teenagers are on their own? The conversation has changed. Now we're thinking about lake champlain. HehWow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Temperatures are in the low to mid 20's right now...…..problems even if we start as rain??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I know what you mean. 60s next week are going to be awesome. On another note... remember I mentioned the wife and I might be moving to lake gaston when our teenagers are on their own? The conversation has changed. Now we're thinking about lake champlain. Heh Which side? Beautiful spot. My plans are either Colorado or New England someday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Which side? Beautiful spot. My plans are either Colorado or New England someday In the middle. It's great that we are all starting to show our age looking toward retirement and where we want to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ouch... Screwjob 95 to the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I’m in. Nice map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 45 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Ouch... Screwjob 95 to the bay Seems thermometer watching will be in order...lol (temps have got be the reason, I'd imagine!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 6z NAM twins appear improved compared to their priors, same with the 6z hrrr. It's hard to have much confidence in their outputs when scrolling on TT through their last 5-6 runs. They fluctuate significantly from run to run. General there continues to be d-2" near 95 and immediate DC metro, 2-4" in favored NW zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 28 degrees here in Hanover and light snow just began a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3K actually looks somewhat promising. Getting a much better look on the lift profile at 850s and 700mbs for the cities and north and west compared to previous runs, one that is better able to transport the moisture back into the colder air moving in. Surface temps are responding a little better as well as we are seeing mixing of these colder temps downward. Precip totals have generally increased for the cities N and W as well as a result of the better lift. Might be a very interesting commute home especially for those who live in the NW suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Its funny how my local weather atm is claiming its snowing for the last 3 hours not 1 flake outside lol. based or radar sure. I thought that had observations but i guess they go by radar when the storm isnt going to be to big? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 The air is bone dry and nothing is showing up on the 3K NAM at this point but we are seeing some good lift coming through the DC/Balt region around midnight so i would not be surprised if we see some sporadic snow flurries then as the last of the moisture gets squeezed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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