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January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA


WxUSAF

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Just now, nj2va said:

My P&C graph shows my temp rising slowly from 29 now to 32 by daybreak.  Hitting 40 by 18z.  Will be interesting tomorrow to see if I hit 40 or not.

I guess I’m thinking there could be some CAD involved. I see the warm temps west of the mountains but not convinced we get out of the 30s tomorrow with cloud cover

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1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I guess I’m thinking there could be some CAD involved. I see the warm temps west of the mountains but not convinced we get out of the 30s tomorrow with cloud cover

With low pressure to our nw there will be return flow in front of it with southerly winds. Nam 3k shows decent southerly surface winds overnight. This will advect in warmer air even when it's dark and clear.

nam3km_mslp_wind_neus_9.png

 

It's not really a CAD situation because that requires northerly winds and cold drain. It's insitu cad at best but colder than forecast at any point between now and onset is never a bad thing. 

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15 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

What feature would cause temps to rise overnight? It’s currently 27 with no wind clear skies and a dew in the mid teens where i am. Not asking to stir controversy just curious

will mostly be near freezing, with some warming starting as dawn
approaches thanks to increasing southerly flow.

 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

With low pressure to our nw there will be return flow in front of it with southerly winds. Nam 3k shows decent southerly surface winds overnight. This will advect in warmer air even when it's dark and clear.

nam3km_mslp_wind_neus_9.png

 

It's not really a CAD situation because that requires northerly winds and cold drain. It's insitu cad at best but colder than forecast at any point between now and onset is never a bad thing. 

Thanks Bob.  Those Southerly winds could be a problem.  But I’ve seen this happen where the forecast temps are relying on winds to blow (even modestly) and when they don’t it keeps temps down. Probably just the weenie in me lol

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:

Can't wait till this event is done

I know what you mean. 60s next week are going to be awesome. On another note... remember I mentioned the wife and I might be moving to lake gaston when our teenagers are on their own? The conversation has changed. Now we're thinking about lake champlain. Heh

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I know what you mean. 60s next week are going to be awesome. On another note... remember I mentioned the wife and I might be moving to lake gaston when our teenagers are on their own? The conversation has changed. Now we're thinking about lake champlain. Heh

Haa... My wife and I were thinking Lake Anna for a while,  then suddenly we bought in the Northern Outer Banks. This is my last chance at a good winter. Leaving in May for good. I went further south than my anticipated destination. You are still chasing. I commend you.

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I know what you mean. 60s next week are going to be awesome. On another note... remember I mentioned the wife and I might be moving to lake gaston when our teenagers are on their own? The conversation has changed. Now we're thinking about lake champlain. Heh

I’m thinking of Lake Placid just so i can take pictures and troll Ji. 

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We are about to rock with some wild and wooly winter weather.

We are cold again tonight , 29 here, and the ground doesn’t have much warmth. So rain to snow of unknown duration and intensity, then quite cold then bitter cold with some more snow action possible and then another. Meanwhile below zero windchills into the afternoon Thursday

Yes it’s 4 days in length and not two weeks but not much is two weeks so love the winter weather we do have.

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I know what you mean. 60s next week are going to be awesome. On another note... remember I mentioned the wife and I might be moving to lake gaston when our teenagers are on their own? The conversation has changed. Now we're thinking about lake champlain. Heh
Wow....
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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I know what you mean. 60s next week are going to be awesome. On another note... remember I mentioned the wife and I might be moving to lake gaston when our teenagers are on their own? The conversation has changed. Now we're thinking about lake champlain. Heh

Which side?  Beautiful spot. My plans are either Colorado or New England someday  

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6z NAM twins appear improved compared to their priors, same with the 6z hrrr. It's hard to have much confidence in their outputs when scrolling on TT through their last 5-6 runs. They fluctuate significantly from run to run. General there continues to be d-2" near 95 and immediate DC metro, 2-4" in favored NW zones

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3K actually looks somewhat promising. Getting a much better look on the lift profile at 850s and 700mbs for the cities and north and west compared to previous runs, one that is better able to transport the moisture back into the colder air moving in. Surface temps are responding a little better as well as we are seeing mixing of these colder temps downward. Precip totals have generally increased for the cities N and W as well as a result of the better lift. Might be a very interesting commute home especially for those who live in the NW suburbs.

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