MD Snow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3k has a pretty epic squall like on Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 12 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Point and click from NWS has OKV with 1-2" tomorrow; MRB with 1-3" and HGR with 2-4". None of these sites are under the WWA. Glad I'm not the only one confused on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Both nams shifted the edge of better qpf west. They must have read PSU's mini melt and showed some sympathy. You debbed your way to 11” 2 weeks ago. I’ll be 100% happy with 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 WPC kinda bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: Glad I'm not the only one confused on that one. Zone forecasts have 1-3" for HGR and MRB, and around an inch for OKV. So with less than 2" being a possibility, that would preclude the WWA. Probably should stick with the ZFP's and disregard the point-and-click. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Love the line of snow squalls on the arctic front midday Wednesday on the 18z NAM nest. Forecast soundings show impressive low and mid-level lapse rates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, high risk said: Love the line of snow squalls on the arctic front midday Wednesday on the 18z NAM nest. Forecast soundings show impressive low and mid-level lapse rates! Also note the extreme omega in the DGZ per the soundings as well. I have that right, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 hours ago, mappy said: for all the complaining you have done about missing out on snow, you'd think you'd be happy with what you end up getting. but what do i know. this place has turned into a super duper negative place to be right now. and frankly, its not fun. good luck with your 1-2", hopefully you get more. Happy Hour it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, high risk said: Love the line of snow squalls on the arctic front midday Wednesday on the 18z NAM nest. Forecast soundings show impressive low and mid-level lapse rates! How well does the nest do on these types of forecasts with extreme lapse rates ? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 30 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Which is telling. This is not a way we score out here, especially me. My guess is up to an inch north of OKV, and mood flakes - at best - for me. Nope. Euro shuts me out too. And that is what I expect. It is what it is. Just feel stupid for tracking this mess for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 ICON remains relatively anemic for tomorrow, FWIW. Seems warmer and less dynamic than the NAMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 17 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Zone forecasts have 1-3" for HGR and MRB, and around an inch for OKV. So with less than 2" being a possibility, that would preclude the WWA. Probably should stick with the ZFP's and disregard the point-and-click. I would think with the timing being mid-afternoon and rush hour, that would impact the advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, frd said: How well does the nest do on these types of forecasts with extreme lapse rates ? Thanks this is the type of event in which resolution and explicit convection (as opposed to a convective scheme) will help a lot, so the NAM nest forecast may be legit. 12 minutes ago, yoda said: Also note the extreme omega in the DGZ per the soundings as well. I have that right, yes? yes, but it's so narrow and fast-moving that I'm not thinking in terms of accumulations. It's more of a deal with potential quick reductions in visibility and then freezing of snow on the ground if enough falls to cover surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, high risk said: this is the type of event in which resolution and explicit convection (as opposed to a convective scheme) will help a lot, so the NAM nest forecast may be legit. yes, but it's so narrow and fast-moving that I'm not thinking in terms of accumulations. It's more of a deal with potential quick reductions in visibility and then freezing of snow on the ground if enough falls to cover surfaces. If the Nest is correct would that possibly warrant using / issuing the new NWS tool regarding squall warnings ? Thamks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 NEMD pummeled on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 is nobody going to woof about the 18z GFS? NE of Balt in particular is in luck, though there's an embedded line of FRZ amidst the snow for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Point and click from NWS has OKV with 1-2" tomorrow; MRB with 1-3" and HGR with 2-4". None of these sites are under the WWA.Little surprised at the lack of WWA for your area and north, but I guarantee that might change tonight with one more round of data and solidifying the projected totals. CTP and LWX probably collaborated together and with WPC to delay the issuance of anything until the 0z suite. That’s my guess. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Very nice gfs run, Montgomery county 3 inches. DC almost gets the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Squalls look good on RGEM. Edit : GFS showing something now on Wed as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 FV3 still looks good. Has .25-.5 most of us in corridor with .5 striped down the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Little surprised at the lack of WWA for your area and north, but I guarantee that might change tonight with one more round of data and solidifying the projected totals. CTP and LWX probably collaborated together and with WPC to delay the issuance of anything until the 0z suite. That’s my guess. . 8 minutes ago, wxtrix said: i guess we don’t qualify for the rush hour option, lol. lol, I guess not. Given the increase in traffic congestion along I-81 these past few years, they might want to rethink that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I’d maybe agree but the rush hour aspect of it probably warrants a WWA for the entire CWA. 30 minutes ago, wxtrix said: i guess we don’t qualify for the rush hour option, lol. Trixie's correct... the LWX WWA "1 inch at Rush Hour" criteria is only for the areas that are currently under it. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR FORECASTER CONFIDENCE OF 60% OR HIGHER OF ONE INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET FOR BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON COMMUTING AREAS. •MORNING RUSH…4AM TO 9AM OR EVENING RUSH…2PM TO 7 PM. • WEEKDAYS THAT DO NOT FALL ON FEDERAL HOLIDAYS. • INCLUDES ALL OR PORTIONS OF INTERSTATES 95...695…495…83…70…270…AND 66. (MAP ON NEXT SLIDE FOR DETAILS) I guess no where else commutes to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 18Z RGEM. So its the Euro, ICON, NAM's and Rgem against the GFS twins. I wonder which will win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 18Z RGEM. So its the Euro, ICON, NAM's and Rgem against the GFS twins. I wonder which will win? The NAMs, ICON, and Euro are not total shutouts though. Maybe in the coating to 2" range for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I don't think any models are really in the same group right now. They all have some differences in general totals and location/amounts of highest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Woodbridge02 said: The NAMs, ICON, and Euro are not total shutouts though. Maybe in the coating to 2" range for DC They all have the same general idea of the precip not getting its act together until it is east of the area though. The GFS' have much more energy overhead as the front comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 It seems like the GFS and NAM have switched their usual spots. NAM isn't bad, but man the GFS is bullish for Baltimore and northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I gotta say it... NE MD PUMMELED!! on the GFS and FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 57 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Very nice gfs run, Montgomery county 3 inches. DC almost gets the good stuff. I see that. What I see is some mixing until after 15Z. Then, a narrow corridor of moisture sets up from the GOM to New England. I see training, as if the same moisture feed is nearly stationary for 3 to 6 hours as the column cools. Good times a-coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: They all have the same general idea of the precip not getting its act together until it is east of the area though. The GFS' have much more energy overhead as the front comes through. I think what the models are really telling us is the setup is not in their wheelhouse. They are giving us the knowledge that a front is coming through and it’s going to be more interesting than a typical FROPA. But trying to pinpoint who sees nothing vs something vs something good is just not going to be settled until it happens or it doesn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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