aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Considering this year has been an epic disaster start to finish along I95 north of MD, the way I look at it is ANY snow is a true gift. Tomorrow will literally be only our 4th legit chance at accum snow and it will probably work out in some fashion. 3 out of 4 is pretty damn good for our region. If Friday works out it will be 4 out of 5 chances in a winter where the pattern has been awful and the chances are few and far between. We could very easily have been under 10" for the year everywhere in our sub. It's like the best total sh!tshow ratter I've ever seen. ETA: I was only counting met winter. If you include the Nov snow then it's another in the win column. Our area generally needs 3-4 chances to get 1 event. Not telling a soul how they should feel but by my calculations our area is doing really well But I thought our area is generally deep winter every year from December 1st through February 21st...with 20-30 events mostly 6" + or have I been dreaming for the last 52 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’d maybe agree but the rush hour aspect of it probably warrants a WWA for the entire CWA. Even though the boom potential with this one is relatively low you are right on about the timing. They can just turn the Special Weather Statement into an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I am just glad to hear upstate NY is getting 6-10 inches out of this one. They need to freshen up that 2 feet of snowpack they already have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 A frontal passage that will have white rain to start for some and a chance for people to get 1-3" and its the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: I am just glad to hear upstate NY is getting 6-10 inches out of this one. They need to freshen up that 2 feet of snowpack they already have. I am too. know why? Its their climo to have lots of snow. You want that then move there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’d maybe agree but the rush hour aspect of it probably warrants a WWA for the entire CWA. agree totally with this. it's also complicated by the NAM and HRRR showing light precip for the *morning* rush hour too, especially north of DC. Depending on your model of choice, it could be snow, sleet, or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: I am just glad to hear upstate NY is getting 6-10 inches out of this one. They need to freshen up that 2 feet of snowpack they already have. Then the lake effect kicks in for a good portion of the area and they get 1-2 feet through Friday. I sure do miss these events! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, high risk said: agree totally with this. it's also complicated by the NAM and HRRR showing light precip for the *morning* rush hour too, especially north of DC. Depending on your model of choice, it could be snow, sleet, or freezing rain. Yeah 16z hrrr has light snow in the corridor at 10z tomorrow morning with temps below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 This event isn’t gonna get me down. We’re talking about a low in the Great Lakes with a cold front moving through. Boom is based on a low forming at the right place/time along the front before the cold moves in. So even if this only produces a coating, it’s really not a standard way that we get a good snowstorm here. The Friday event has more upside imo. As for the winter so far, it’s been ok snow-wise due to one storm. The problem is that almost every event has been a rainer. Not a good winter up to this point, generally speaking, but there’s still time to get this to a B grade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 46 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I think he realizes that. 3" sucks though when you have been on the short end of the stick all winter. But I thought that flawed events and grabbing snow wherever we can was how we got to climo around here. <shrug> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 25 minutes ago, H2O said: A frontal passage that will have white rain to start for some and a chance for people to get 1-3" and its the end of the world. Everyone is always HECS hunting, but this looks like a fun winter week to me. Multiple light snow events possible, with potential for some heavy bursts within them, and some legit arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Everyone is always HECS hunting, but this looks like a fun winter week to me. Multiple light snow events possible, with potential for some heavy bursts within them, and some legit arctic air. Yeah I agree. I think some of the earlier Euro runs got people's hopes up for a borderline warning-level event, and I also think the long range outlook at this point combined with the hype coming into the season is, understandably, frustrating people and causing them to look down on an event like this. I'm just going to hope for a thunderstorm type squall line with a short burst of very heavy snow with some whipping winds like we've seen in the past and enjoy that. Anything additional with this will be a bonus for me. It will all be gone next week anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 NAM gets measurable precip down through DC tomorrow AM with temps right around freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Advisories going out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 NAM looks significantly better with the precip along the front IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Yes - NAM is a good hit, even after a little rain, plenty of frozen after 20z for the metro region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Advisories going out now. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 258 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019 MDZ004>006-503-505-507-290400- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0008.190129T1100Z-190130T0200Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford- 258 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Light mixed precipitation is expected during the morning and midday hours before becoming all snow in the afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches expected. * WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 9 PM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes. Temperatures will fall well below freezing during the evening, causing any moisture or slush to freeze on untreated surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: NAM looks significantly better with the precip along the front IMO. The highly technical NAM pattern says 0z will suck, 6z will be good, 12z will be a disaster, and 18z will be a flush hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 i would take the 18z nam output and call it a day. snow would start early to mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 258 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019 MDZ011-504-506-508-VAZ052-053-501-502-505-506-290400- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0008.190129T1700Z-190130T0300Z/ Southern Baltimore-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Northern Fauquier- Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- 258 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Any rain will change to snow during the afternoon hours. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From noon to 10 PM EST Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. Temperatures will fall well below freezing during the evening, causing any moisture or slush to freeze on untreated surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 NAM and 3K are nice runs for Montgomery county and north, especially up around @psuhoffman land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Got a feeling the mason-dixon counties get an advisory this afternoon. Maybe northern howard and montgomery get one, but that's stretching it. Wrong once again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Wrong once again lol Notice how I didn't use concrete language. That was my feeling based off the marginal setup and how dry things were on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Still can’t buy a flake on the NAM in Central/Western VA. Oh well. Not my year. I’ll stay away from NOVA and keep the bad juju away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Temps are so marginal. What a tough call. Lots of boom-bust potential with this one, but guessing most of us end up in the 1-2 range when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: NAM and 3K are nice runs for Montgomery county and north, especially up around @psuhoffman land. 18Z HRRR is advertising WSW snows in Carroll County but temps are the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Point and click from NWS has OKV with 1-2" tomorrow; MRB with 1-3" and HGR with 2-4". None of these sites are under the WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Both nams shifted the edge of better qpf west. They must have read PSU's mini melt and showed some sympathy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 13 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Point and click from NWS has OKV with 1-2" tomorrow; MRB with 1-3" and HGR with 2-4". None of these sites are under the WWA. CTP did not give Franklin County PA a WWA either re: HGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Point and click from NWS has OKV with 1-2" tomorrow; MRB with 1-3" and HGR with 2-4". None of these sites are under the WWA. Which is telling. This is not a way we score out here, especially me. My guess is up to an inch north of OKV, and mood flakes - at best - for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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