BristowWx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: ICON still looks good for a dusting -2 inches I have no doubt I will see a couple hours of moderate snow followed by rapid clearing and cold winds. That’s all this event ever was or will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, digital snow said: OMG... the ICON, just stop. Fun to look at, but is batting 0for life on every storm since its inception. Gets the right idea sort of, but misses the key outcome every time fwiw Yeah you're right, that's why its called guidance, not our forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Yeah you're right, that's why its called guidance, not our forecast. touche Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 RGEM busted warm with the MLK storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, digital snow said: OMG... the ICON, just stop. Fun to look at, but is batting 0for life on every storm since its inception. Gets the right idea sort of, but misses the key outcome every time fwiw That simply isnt true. It has out performed the GFS this year so far. And it has been rock solid with its runs. It hasnt waffled at all in the past 4 runs. If anything it shows the most realistic expectation for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 13 minutes ago, nj2va said: RGEM busted warm with the MLK storm. Hr 19 off the RGEM. Its temp distribution is borderline impossible. The Bay isn’t frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, T. August said: Hr 19 off the RGEM. Its temp distribution is borderline impossible. The Bay isn’t frozen. Nvm the gfs and icon are doing it too... what the hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Gfs another very solid run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Looks like a very slight but noticeable shift west with QPF as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 00Z GFS looks nice to me... QPF field looks a bit better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 .4 qpf extends to about I 81 and .5 is just SE of the metros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 About 1” in DC on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Even if this ends up as only an inch or so of snow, this is going to be a high-impact event for sure. With temps falling into the 20s quickly after the precip ends, that covering of snow will freeze quickly and lead to icy streets and sidewalks. I expect widespread school delays Wednesday morning, with cancellations also possible, especially if the 00z GFS is right with us not getting anywhere near freezing Wednesday. (Earlier runs and the 00z NAM have us getting to near 30 Wednesday just ahead of the push of the real arctic air.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: CMC is decent as well for N VA and DC into C MD In terms of QPF but the snow map definitely scaled back. Shows more rain initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 If the gfs is too warm then most or all the precip from nova/dc and north would be snow. Sounding shows the column above 925mb below freezing. Surface is 37-40 around dc/close burbs. Knock 3-5 degrees off of that and it's snow. Gfs might be right but it wouldn't take much for less rain and more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 QPF bleeding to the east has halted for the time being... now I just need it to go back west a few hundred miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: QPF bleeding to the east has halted for the time being... now I just need it to go back west a few hundred miles. It’s interesting that EZF is around 0.5” of on latest GFS and the 12z Euro, yet some how CHO is around 0.15” or 0.2” big difference over short area. I’m just not sure the temps will cooperate as much down here around FXBG to present more than maybe 1 inch. Hopefully I’m wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 It’s interesting that EZF is around 0.5” of on latest GFS and the 12z Euro, yet some how CHO is around 0.15” or 0.2” big difference over short area. I’m just not sure the gems will cooperate as much down here around FXBG to present more than maybe 1 inch. Hopefully I’m wrongIt’s definitely interesting. Don’t know if it’s a sort of coastal element taking over or the precip needing time to reform over the mountains. It also seems to not be as cold in Charlottesville. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Fv3 another good run. It's running a lot colder that its brother from what i can tell on ncep. Makes me not trust either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3 another good run. It's running a lot colder that its brother from what i can tell on ncep. Makes me not trust either. Seems like temperature before the front, or how quickly heavy precipitation can cool boundary layer will be the real wild card. Not sure which way to lean, it may be different for all parts of our forum in terms of temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Seems like temperature before the front, or how quickly heavy precipitation can cool boundary layer will be the real wild card. Not sure which way to lean, it may be different for all parts of our forum in terms of temps Yea, this one has been really tough to make a call on. We've been seeing a number of solutions that drop upwards of .50 qpf and the bulk of it is in a relatively short time. Only issue with temps is between the surface up to 2k'. Going to be a lot of thermometer watching tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 00z UKIE bullseyes DCA at 48 with QPF... will be a few to see what's rain and what's snow. Total QPF looks near 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Zoom in on DCA and you will see a tiny 10mm marker lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Surprised nobody shared these panels. This would be a nightmare travel scenario for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Surprised nobody shared these panels. This would be a nightmare travel scenario for DC. @GEOS5ftw Shows what looks like 1" per hour rates too looking at the snow accums map from hours 45 to 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 It's unusual that models show rain well northwest of the old school 540 thickness line. If you didn't have access to surface temps you would think it was snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Euro awaits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 eta: EPS Snowfall means were showing the snowfall maxes north and west of the cities but did not show the secondary max over the bay and eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: eta: EPS Snowfall means were showing the snowfall maxes north and west of the cities but did not show the secondary max over the bay and eastern shore. Didnt the models have a finger of heaviest snows extending SW from Eastern PA down into DC yesterday? Looks opposite now unless that secondary max is the finger and shifted E? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Think it was mentioned yesterday on a bulletin but looking over things we could possibly get a sneaky and possibly intense little squall line mid day Wednesday through portions of the region as the Arctic cold front moves in. Will depend on what if any moisture is still available when it pushes through. Probably be some good mixing down of some higher wind gusts regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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