SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 18z euro looks about the same, maybe a touch drier but just noise methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I have to drive 60 miles from DC to central Balt county Tuesday at 5 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: That really isn't cold for what is supposed to be the coldest time of the year. That's a clown post bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I kind of assumed Richmond was out of the game, however sounds like we may have shot to get lil fropa love? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 My main concern with this event, as others have mentioned, is surface temps. These are the euro temps for 00z Wednesday. By this point most of our QPF has fallen and DC has about 0.1 left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 41 minutes ago, yoda said: I did mention the 70 next week in another thread I know yoder...I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danajames Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: My main concern with this event, as others have mentioned, is surface temps. These are the euro temps for 00z Wednesday. By this point most of our QPF has fallen and DC has about 0.1 left. They'll definitely be marginal where I'm at but the past several runs of the GFS has shown some decent, if not brief heavy snow soundings with that window of opportunity. If it pans out that way, we could pick up a couple inches of snow relatively quickly. I've seen that scenario before and the last time it happened, we lost power for 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 21 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: My main concern with this event, as others have mentioned, is surface temps. These are the euro temps for 00z Wednesday. By this point most of our QPF has fallen and DC has about 0.1 left. It snowed heavy and stuck to the roads at 35 in November and I live south of DC. Dont think it would be a problem in late January, at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 12 minutes ago, GATECH said: It snowed heavy and stuck to the roads at 35 in November and I live south of DC. Dont think it would be a problem in late January, at night. Yeah it can definitely happen, but these rain to snow transitions have broken both ways for us in recent years. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get 4-5 inches or if we bust and get less than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, GATECH said: It snowed heavy and stuck to the roads at 35 in November and I live south of DC. Dont think it would be a problem in late January, at night. Agree as long as rates are there (which appears to be the case). Best case would be solid rates shortly after onset before the bulk of the precip comes. A bit of a wildard there though but lay down a nice coating quick enough and the rest will accumulate easily. Even though Kuchera has consistently shown above 10:1 I'm not sure that's possible with onset above freezing during the daylight hours. The mid and upper column gets cold in a hurry though with the cold push into the midlevels during the meat of the event. With shallow cold confined to the surface and what appears to be good conditions in the DGZ is a little unique. Might be big fluffy high ratio dendrites in spite of temps near or above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 14 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah it can definitely happen, but these rain to snow transitions have broken both ways for us in recent years. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get 4-5 inches or if we bust and get less than an inch. Totally, actually don’t remember any really that have worked out, 2011 comes to mind but that was different setup. My bar is a sloppy inch for my area and would call it a win, anything more would be pure gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, yoda said: I did mention the 70 next week in another thread Is it really? F*** kill me right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, GATECH said: Totally, actually don’t remember any really that have worked out, 2011 comes to mind but that was different setup. My bar is a sloppy inch for my area and would call it a win, anything more would be pure gravy. I thought there was one in 2015 that started out warm but gave us 6 inches...I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: That is calling for all-time records in my home territory in southern MN. The fresh snowpack there will help, but this isn’t 94 or 96. I grew up on a farm in northeast Iowa and have never experienced the -34 forecast for Waterloo although have seen it in the forecast on several occasions. I've experienced many -20 to -25 nights and a few below that but never -34. Until recently, I believe the all time record in Waterloo was -32 on March 1st. Elkader has the all time low in my area of minus 50 something; guess that is safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: He really is an awful poster though. He's one of the few here that make being here unpleasant most of the time. Said much the same recently. How in God’s name can such a sh*t poster have an orange tag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 15 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I thought there was one in 2015 that started out warm but gave us 6 inches...I could be wrong though. March 5 2015. Most snow fell in the daylight IIRC but it did change from rain to snow very early morning so sun angle wasn't the biggest deal. Got 7" here followed by single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: My main concern with this event, as others have mentioned, is surface temps. These are the euro temps for 00z Wednesday. By this point most of our QPF has fallen and DC has about 0.1 left. It will be from 4-7 and sun has waned. 11-2 and I would have the same concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Lots of convective potential on 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Could see the changes early on at h5. Nam’s not that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: Could see the changes early on at h5. Nam’s not that great. Thin very quick hitting rain to brief squall line. Non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 NAM changes over at 21z along 95 and has maybe 0.15” fall after that. The snow depth output on IWM is coating-like. This honestly makes the most sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 16 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: NAM changes over at 21z along 95 and has maybe 0.15” fall after that. The snow depth output on IWM is coating-like. This honestly makes the most sense. It still could be enough to cause mayhem on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 If the globals go the same way as the nams I'll take it more seriously. We're right in the nam's wheelhouse for oscillating between good runs and bad ones. We do this with every.single.event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: If the globals go the same way as the nams I'll take it more seriously. We're right in the nam's wheelhouse for oscillating between good runs and bad ones. We do this with every.single.event The nam performs better than the euro at this range ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, frd said: The nam performs better than the euro at this range ? I'm just saying that the nams have a knack of either taking away our snow or giving us false hope leading in. I can think of few if any events where they didn't. Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are terrible. Good luck guessing which direction right now. I'll wait until the globals run before worrying one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm just saying that the nams have a knack of either taking away our snow or giving us false hope leading in. I can think of few if any events where they didn't. Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are terrible. Good luck guessing which direction right now. I'll wait until the globals run before worrying one way or the other. Relatively speaking the ICON doesn't look any worse than 18z, a bit wetter in a few areas and according to TT a bit more snow in N MD vs the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 ICON still looks good for a dusting -2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 RGEM is a qpf bomb (0.5 from I95 north and west with more to come as the run ends at 0Z) as it spins up a sfc low along the front but a good bit of that is rain especially towards DC. North of 70/west of 83 is mostly snow. Will be interesting to see the HRDPS later. Where's cae with the RGEM ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 The 0z RGEM is in and is very juicy in CMD, .5-.6 QPF, warm overall though the rain snow line is a bit NW of 95. Snow map 4-5" up into Westminster, FDK, and PSU ville, 2-3" down closer to the metros. Regardless, nice to see that type of wet solution and a good 8-10 hours of precip vs what the NAM showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 OMG... the ICON, just stop. Fun to look at, but is batting 0for life on every storm since its inception. Gets the right idea sort of, but misses the key outcome every time fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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