psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 2:36 PM, clskinsfan said: I am gonna pull a Ji and say the NAM just took away all of my snow. I get zip. NOTHING. Expand Yea people in the eastern 1/2 of the forum trying to hold on and play “it’s not so bad” but the trends have been on the wall for the western 1/2 of the region for a while. I’ve gone from the heavy precip being west of me to the heavy being east of me over the last 3 days. Snow maps don’t tell the tale locally since temps are an issue 95 east but go back and look at runs 2-3 data ago that gave WV up to State Collegd PA 6”+ and now that area is nothing and the precip max is 95 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 You know it's a rough storm when you can't even get Nam'd. Us Hagerstown/Frederick/Winchester folks are sliding off into flurries on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 2:43 PM, psuhoffman said: Yea people in the eastern 1/2 of the forum trying to hold on and play “it’s not so bad” but the trends have been on the wall for the western 1/2 of the region for a while. I’ve gone from the heavy precip being west of me to the heavy being east of me over the last 3 days. Snow maps don’t tell the tale locally since temps are an issue 95 east but go back and look at runs 2-3 data ago that gave WV up to State Collegd PA 6”+ and now that area is nothing and the precip max is 95 east. Expand Agreed. I hate to keep touting the ICON. But go look at the 6Z Saturday run. That is when it started playing out this scenario and it has stayed that way since then. Still hasnt verified. But if it does nice performance from that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 2:30 PM, LP08 said: 3k Looks to change DC ~19z tomorrow. 90% of this is snow with temps hovering around 32-34 in the immediate burbs. Expand Ok... I'm ready for this "east trend" to halt immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 2:23 PM, Eskimo Joe said: The old north trend inside 48 hours. Expand It’s more an east/less amplified trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 2:38 PM, psuhoffman said: Yea I guess...but that back edge of decent qpf keeps creeping east every run. Those of us west of 95 are running out of room on the cliffs edge. 95 east the problem is temps. Expand Fronto! Rates! lol I have never been too interested in this beyond a quick coating. My official forecast is for an inch. If that verifies I would be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 2:45 PM, Fozz said: Ok... I'm ready for this "east trend" to halt immediately. Expand Agreed. My post was in jest to PSU. The thing that bugs me the most is that when this first came up on the radar, temps were never really issue but the real cold push now isn't until Wednesday. I fully expect down near me to have 34 and "snow" with a dusting-1" at this point. I hope I'm wrong but we never do well with cold chasing precip as its usually delayed and in this situation even an hour can screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 2:04 PM, psuhoffman said: The trough is going negative tilt with a lot of cross boundary flow and some pretty good forcing. This isn’t a typical front. But the waves impacts will be narrow. Somewhere is getting a 3-5” thump from this. But it could be north or northeast of us. That doesn’t mean it failed because it was a “typical front”. This is anything but. Expand even w/ it going neg, I'm just not sure I buy a neg tilted frontal boundary getting 2" down. Sure hope your are right, and while the forcing shown above says maybe, I'll remain skeptical until proven otherwise w/ this one. Sure hope your right though....believe me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Is Connecticut still out of the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 2:38 PM, psuhoffman said: I doubt that morning band is much. Temps are really questionable even up here. And even if it dropped a quick 1-2” it probably would melt during the lull then the afternoon drops another 1” and the numbers say we got 3” but only 1” otg. I hate that crap. Expand If you look at the 3k’s dipiction, the morning band stays in place and just hands off to the actual frontal band. There really isn’t a lull. I doubt temps get much above freezing tomorrow north and west of Baltimore if 3k is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 2:55 PM, MD Snow said: If you look at the 3k’s dipiction, the morning band stays in place and just hands off to the actual frontal band. There really isn’t a lull. I doubt temps get much above freezing tomorrow north and west of Baltimore if 3k is right. Expand @mappy with the visualization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I think as long as we have low expectations of the FROPA this could be a fun dynamic couple hours tomorrow afternoon and early evening. I still think someone will pick up 3+ inches and some will be wondering “what snow”. Pretty much a nowcast deal to see where the best dynamics set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 2:58 PM, Eskimo Joe said: @mappy with the visualization Expand And with this depiction psu looks to be able to maximize the event. Razor thin, trending east etc I get it but...stay positive my friends! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Yeah. East trend sucks. But I’ve done ok this winter. You kids to the east may score an inch or two. I’ll take one for the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 If you pause that NAM depiction, looks like about a 3-4 hour thump of snow after the changeover. I hope its right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 That's a bummer. Looks like western areas are going to get skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Gfs went wagons west. Lol. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 3:42 PM, Bob Chill said: Gfs went wagons west. Lol. Good times. Expand i didnt think NAM range started till tomorow at 9am! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 3:42 PM, Bob Chill said: Gfs went wagons west. Lol. Good times. Expand Nice 1-3 for many using the TT maps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 3:45 PM, Ji said: i didnt think NAM range started till tomorow at 9am! Expand Serious question... Do the nams ever add value before precip is on the doorstep? I've grown to hate 24-48 hour nam runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 3:46 PM, yoda said: Nice 1-3 for many using the TT maps lol Expand NAM is just waiting for Happy Hour to give us what we want lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 GFS is a solid outcome, PSU can live with that I would assume. Halted the east trend. Edit to say I want to see the FV3 as it has been good the last few runs for us. 6z was east so I'd like to see it come back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Fv3 is really good. Gets areas north in the morning and then gets us all in the afternoon. Someone with a little elevation along the md/pa border will get 1-2” in the morning imo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Those simulations with snow bands dropping into the northern tier late morning before the main stuff later in the day is quite interesting. I wonder how likely that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 3:49 PM, Bob Chill said: Serious question... Do the nams ever add value before precip is on the doorstep? I've grown to hate 24-48 hour nam runs. Expand ive seen NAMS really dry with frontal passages type of events...where we get really NAMMED is when there is a a real storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 3:57 PM, MD Snow said: Fv3 is really good. Gets areas north in the morning and then gets us all in the afternoon. Someone with a little elevation along the md/pa border will get 1-2” in the morning imo... Expand Do you have total QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 On 1/28/2019 at 4:09 PM, yoda said: Do you have total QPF? Expand Looks like .25-.5 for most with a sliver of .5 just east of 95 through the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 NWS forecast is for 2-4" IMBY - I would be thrilled if that verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 GFS/FV3 are surprisingly cold....looks good for almost all snow even down to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 WUSA9 saying 1-3 for DC Metro possible https://www.wusa9.com/article/weather/forecast/snow-for-tuesday-evening-commute-how-much-and-what-it-means-for-roads/65-f729a838-1067-401b-a864-3c1cbb341b72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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