jjwxman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 The 32 hr 12z HRRR also has no snow east of the Apps. In fact it has temps in the mid to upper 40’s on the back end of the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Yes, we really don’t have a chance, outside of flurries, IMO! If we could get the cold front to fly through and then a low form on it, we would do better, but that’s about a 1% chance as of now. The mountains do well regardless, a lot of 2-4” up there. Thinking of chasing up there tomorrow.It’s too bad, because the other day there was a model or 2 that showed a weak low forming and bringing some snow to places east of the mountains. I think there is a better chance that we don’t even drop below freezing until way after the precip has moved out. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Meanwhile back in my old Kenosha home... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Man, I can now see there are very few ga posters left here. It may only be a very light event but there is some snow coming and this thread is dead as a door nail. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, LithiaWx said: Man, I can now see there are very few ga posters left here. It may only be a very light event but there is some snow coming and this thread is dead as a door nail. Wow I am still here bro. Not sure which model to believe. Starting to worry about temp profiles. The moisture looks a litter better than it did 12 hours ago. Watching the 18Z NAM roll now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, HWY316wx said: I am still here bro. Not sure which model to believe. Starting to worry about temp profiles. The moisture looks a litter better than it did 12 hours ago. Watching the 18Z NAM roll now. Updated by nws at 2pm today snow totals are upped slightly for GA. Image too big to post https://www.weather.gov/ffc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phobos Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I am in the tippy top of Barrow County in Braselton, i'm not expecting much.. maybe a few flakes for the kids to see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I’m still here, but not going to get too excited about a storm that’s going to mostly miss me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 18Z NAM just dried up. Even in Alabama wow. That is no bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWakeCo Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Looking like another miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waronxmas Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 hours ago, LithiaWx said: Meh I’ll take what I can get if it’s only an inch so be it. From an Atlanta perspective. I'll take it. Snow weenies in Atlanta can't be picky, and I always need a good excuse to work from home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 NAM3k simulated radar shows a sharp line of heavy rain moving through central NC. Not really any show (verbatim on sim radar), but definitely the potential of black ice since the freezing temps look to set in by 11PM. That only gives about 3-4 hours of drying time prior to any standing water freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 52 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Man, I can now see there are very few ga posters left here. It may only be a very light event but there is some snow coming and this thread is dead as a door nail. Wow There are quite a few of us here! It’s just not looking great for a lot of us. Precip either moves out or dries up east of atl - Gainesville -Cleveland. Looked better a couple of days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vman722 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Another ATLien here. Just got back from Colorado where I got to ride the deepest and lightest snow I've ever experienced. It's only fitting that I come back to a dusting fiasco in the A. Regardless of what falls, looking like a hard freeze is on the way tomorrow night. Hopefully, the wind will work its magic and keep the ice to a minimum. But like others have said, working from home is fine with me too. Lucky to be able to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Winter Storm Warning up for parts of N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYweatherguy Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, HWY316wx said: Winter Storm Warning up for parts of N GA. If this is accurate, those of us in Gwinnett County get screwed.....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Here is the disco from FFC. Good nuggets in here as to their thinking. National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 243 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019 .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/... Main concern is likelihood and timing of rain/snow and snow Tuesday and will there be impacts from black ice late Tuesday afternoon and evening. 12Z guidance still brings broad clipper system through quickly. Even with good agreement on precip timing, of all things, there is quite a disparity in model temps as the round of precip moves through. Of course the statistical guidance and any blends that use them were thrown out due to poor performance with fronts with such strong gradients. Used CMC, HIRESWarw, local WRF and some other raw model guidance. EC raw grids too course temporally to use in GFE, but also shows cooler sfc temps. GFS and NAM have continued trend of slightly warmer sfc temps. These temps are key to produce changeover to snow during a relatively short window of time. In downtown Atlanta, changeover should occur around 9-10a before ending around noon-1p. Some of the hires guidance pushes things out even faster than this. Based on all this, local tools producing very similar snow amounts as WPC guidance which shows snow amounts < 2 inches with the < 1 inch line about 10-20mi north of the Chattahoochee river and the line of no snow down to just south of I-85. To account for some uncertainty, have pushed the no snow line an additional 10-20mi south and east and based advisory on this. Some question whether temps will be cold enough in Troup Co (temps never go below 36F until well after precip ends), so have left them out for now. Higher amounts of > 2 inches likely to occur in higher elevation of far north GA but would not be surprised to see those amounts even in Rome or other parts of NW GA. Another concern is refreezing of liquid around and after sunset as temps fall below 30F. Total liquid equivalent precip only expected to be 0.15 to 0.25 inches across northwest 1/2 of state with lesser amounts to the southeast. If we get enough sunshine and winds in the afternoon, the chance for refreezing is low, however there is uncertainty. Also, sheltered areas can see much less wind and evaporation and can also see additional runoff and seepage of water from nearby grounds. Tuesday night should be windy and much colder and continued cold for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, NYweatherguy said: If this is accurate, those of us in Gwinnett County get screwed.....again. I wasn't expecting ANYTHING. We are too far East for these setups. Very similar to 2014. We got nothing and Cobb County folks couldn't make it home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 RGEM finally coming around. Now at least shows snow of some sort for Atlanta. It had been all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Im going into this fairy tale chase hugging the GFS. What could possibly go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Im going into this fairy tale chase hugging the GFS. What could possibly go wrong? The GFS continues to cling to the idea of more moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: NAM3k simulated radar shows a sharp line of heavy rain moving through central NC. Not really any show (verbatim on sim radar), but definitely the potential of black ice since the freezing temps look to set in by 11PM. That only gives about 3-4 hours of drying time prior to any standing water freezing. I kinda doubt it, with how warm and sunny it was today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JovialWeather Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 20 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: 18z nam I'll cash out with that little 2 or 3-inch dot over N Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 This has mega-bust written all over it for Alabama/Georgia. Can't believe how expansive the warnings/advisories are for this "event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Should someone start an obs. thread?...or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, burrel2 said: This has mega-bust written all over it for Alabama/Georgia. Can't believe how expansive the warnings/advisories are for this "event". The Euro hasn’t really budged at all on around 2-2.5 for BHM and 1 for ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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