BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: See if Nam can hold serve here at 0z Would it be closer to 10:1 or Kuchera?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Kuchera more, because of rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 That depiction of NAM doesn't look great. Almost say a clown map. Reminds me years ago following along on a Arctic front/clipper that was supposed to bring snow to ATL I85 Northward ATL had thunderstorms in the low 40s. Can't shake the feeling this front may pull the same stunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 The NAM is on crack, no way we get 8" LOL. The consensus from other models is still about an inch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: The NAM is on crack, no way we get 8" LOL. The consensus from other models is still about an inch here. It's the 84hr NAM. Show that look at 48hrs and maybe more believable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, CaryWx said: It's the 84hr NAM. Show that look at 48hrs and maybe more believable? No way a post frontal downsloping situation will ever produce that much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, CaryWx said: It's the 84hr NAM. Show that look at 48hrs and maybe more believable? If you believe the NAM atm From GA/TN line would be snowing north of. ATL is moderate to heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 The only problem is the ICON, CMC & EURO are all drier compared to NAM/GFS/FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 36 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: No way a post frontal downsloping situation will ever produce that much snow. LOL. Well if you believe the SREFs (at 75 hours!) then maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: See if Nam can hold serve here at 0z That looks better east of mountains too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Here comes the front hr 42 0z Nam: Nice pool of energy hanging out off Texas Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Hr 54 Nam , always nice to be on or north of 540 thickness line before moisture arrives. Assuming it does here in a few minutes. 18z we where warmer, 540 was in central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 This may turn out better than 18z if thats possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: This may turn out better than 18z if thats possible. Can you show map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: This may turn out better than 18z if thats possible. It ended up being worse.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Missed that streamer in mby that run lol, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, NCSNOW said: Missed that streamer in mby that run lol, This is no doubt accurate. Misses MBY to the west and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 These clown maps from the Nam seem to be showing that its probably gonna be convective when the front pushes through. Someones liable to get a good 30 minute thump, like when a front comes through in the spring and summer and one county over just a quick shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Well be able to see the RDPS and other short range models tomorrow night once inside 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: These clown maps from the Nam seem to be showing that its probably gonna be convective when the front pushes through. Someones liable to get a good 30 minute thump, like when a front comes through in the spring and summer and one county over just a quick shower. A meteorologist I’m subscribed too today said there could be thunder snow with this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, Cheeznado said: No way a post frontal downsloping situation will ever produce that much snow. Not even if a low develops on the front, as some models are hinting!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Not even if a low develops on the front, as some models are hinting!? I've seen a lee trough surprise before, but those are few and far between. Setup is different, but I'd love to see another one of these https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 GFS0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Is the reason those maps look so dry for central NC because it doesn't go out far enough yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Is the reason those maps look so dry for central NC because it doesn't go out far enough yet? No, I think that is it per GFs. Not a whole lot for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Thats all the way out. Fickle situation east of Apps. Usually its Nada and I dont even look at. This has a chance to give someone an inch, not everyone. Canadian 0z is Dry bones. Just a heavy dusting most, even western areas SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 39 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Thats all the way out. Fickle situation east of Apps. Usually its Nada and I dont even look at. This has a chance to give someone an inch, not everyone. Canadian 0z is Dry bones. Just a heavy dusting most, even western areas SE. The GGEM and ICON are outliers at the moment. They just slam the front through the Gulf states and almost nobody gets anything. The UKMET is more in the Euro/NAM group Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Y’all waiting on a frontal passage to give you snow!? Very, very sad, East of the mountains. But after this winter, I understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 UKMET is very juicy. Idk about temps but assuming they’re in line with other models would be nice hit for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 RAH Hazardous Weather Outlook: Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 411 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-280915- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange- Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery- Moore-Lee- 411 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Rain showers on Tuesday afternoon may change to snow showers before ending during the early evening. A light dusting of snow may occur over portions of the Piedmont, mainly along and north of the Interstate 40/85 corridor. Very cold air will arrive Wednesday morning through Thursday. Lows Wednesday and Thursday should be in the teens, with wind chill values 5 to 10 above. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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