Cheeznado Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Two runs in a row of the NAM show a very sharp drop in temps and some pretty good snow rates- 1-2" in 3 hours or less. 2M temps fall sharply to 26 by 18Z. This is similar to an event on Jan 26, 1985 where we got an inch or so just behind a strong front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Thanks for starting a thread on this. With such quickly falling temps, it won't take much to be quite impactful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TAP Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I've been watching this for several days. Models have been somewhat consistent on something for Tuesday. I read back on January 1985 and it looks like a few days prior 1/21-1/22 there was artic air with very low temps (-8 in ATL). I'm sure the cold temps helped that scenario. Some of the models show a rain/snow transition for Tuesday. What is everyone's thoughts on this? Will the early precip shown be mostly virga with a dry column? The very cold air behind worries me too. Could we have an ice under snow situation like 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Was trying to figure out the forcing mechanisms that make this frontal passage through the southeastern states and associated precipitation different than our usual "cold chasing rain" scenario. Here is a helpful link describing the anafront scenario. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-are-ana-and-kata-fronts/73473 Looks like the difference is the velocity of the cold at the surface is so fast that it shoots out ahead, with the attendant moisture being forced up and over the advancing cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Cheeznado said: Two runs in a row of the NAM show a very sharp drop in temps and some pretty good snow rates- 1-2" in 3 hours or less. 2M temps fall sharply to 26 by 18Z. This is similar to an event on Jan 26, 1985 where we got an inch or so just behind a strong front. The GFS made an attempt to move that way. Oddly enough the GFS 3 days ago looked the best of any model for this event and go figure it’s looked the lousiest the last day or so along with the GGEM. The closest analog showing is 12/19/00. It appears to me that east and southeast sides of Atlanta got 2-3 inches with it but oddly enough west of there got hardly anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 UKMET seems to be more progressive than the Euro at 72 than the 00z Euro at 84 or the 06Z Euro at 78. It continues the theme of this winter where the UKMET and Euro generally have not agreed which is rare. The UKMET has generally lost those battles. That said the UKMET may still be snowier for many people than the GFS and certainly the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 The euro has been increasingly interesting for the Triad and N&W areas of the Triangle. The last run, the kuchera maps had 3-4” from about Asheboro to Durham and areas to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 The key for my neck of the woods seems to be that precip that blossoms in southern LA and winds it’s way through MS/AL/GA and doesn’t get eaten up by the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The key for my neck of the woods seems to be that precip that blossoms in southern LA and winds it’s way through MS/AL/GA and doesn’t get eaten up by the mountains. The ensemble members and the NAM and EURO dig things enough so that the front is clearing almost entirely in advance of all the precipitation in many areas. It’s entirely possible both models are not snowy enough across the Gulf states because at this range even the higher res NAM and Euro tend to underestimate low level bleeding of cold air. The few hours places like BHM or ATL show rain basically everything but 940mb and down is below 0C. Very possible that would end up colder if you took the NAM/Euro solutions and played them out exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Anyone seeing if euro keeps that south end of the front amped up wave/ gyro, precip max at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 The Euro looked like do-do. Warmer before and after the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Supposedly we dont go above freezing from Tues night until mid day Friday in the Triad. So this could be fun (annoying) with even minimal QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 11 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Supposedly we dont go above freezing from Tues night until mid day Friday in the Triad. So this could be fun (annoying) with even minimal QPF. Euro has upper 30s/40 for high Wednesday and 40s Friday with a warm weekend Edit: Only Thursday has highs below freezing for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 30 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro has upper 30s/40 for high Wednesday and 40s Friday with a warm weekend Edit: Only Thursday has highs below freezing for NC A flash freeze will happen Tuesday evening regardless if it rains or snows. Will be especially dangerous as this occurs around rush hour for I77 and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 ATL just got NAM'd on the 18Z run... .30 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: ATL just got NAM'd on the 18Z run... .30 snow NAM was actually really good in N.C. east of the mtns surprisingly. This is the winter that just keeps on giving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Esasky Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: ATL just got NAM'd on the 18Z run... .30 snow Yep. Still plenty of time for that to end up almost all rain of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: ATL just got NAM'd on the 18Z run... .30 snow It's literally looks almost like the 2000 analogy you were saying earlier. East and Southeast sides gets lollipopped....west parts of the metro get shafted. Still, it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, LovingGulfLows said: It's literally looks almost like the 2000 analogy you were saying earlier. East and Southeast sides gets lollipopped....west parts of the metro get shafted. Still, it's the NAM. The Euro only showed .07 but its very possible the algorithm at this range is not seeing how fast the BL cools...if you look at BUFKIT soundings for the 12Z NAM and GFS they show the FROPA through the metro down there about 15-16Z, The Euro is about the same...and then it drops temps 10 or more degrees in an hour. If thats the case I think you see more snow than the Euro spat out verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Charlotte got almost 3" this run of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Charlotte got almost 3" this run of the NAM. And some love to the east side of the foothills. Then a nice lee shadow .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 NWS AtlantaVerified account @NWSAtlanta 50s51 seconds ago A cold front will bring the potential for accumulating snow to portions of north Georgia on Tuesday. Black ice will be possible even in areas with little or no snow. Significant uncertainty remains, so stay updated to the latest forecasts! #gawx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 18z GFS very interesting for GA at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 17 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: 18z GFS very interesting for GA at hour 72. It tried moving towards the wave idea the NAM showed with the surface reflection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 With that lift, you could certainly see a situation where thunderstorms accompany the ptype change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 From RAH: The next chance of precipitation will arrive on Tuesday, as the strong Arctic vortex diving south out of Canada absorbs/merges with a lead shortwave trough moving into the southern/central Appalachians. Associated synoptic scale height falls on the order of 60 to 90 meter, in tandem with the attendant Arctic cold front will support an area/band of showers moving east through the area Tuesday afternoon. Models still show the potential that the band of rain showers could briefly change over to snow showers before the moisture departs Tuesday evening/night as colder air pours into the region. This classic cold air chasing the moisture scenario rarely results in significant/warning criteria snow fall for central NC. Will continue to closely monitor. With liquid equivalent of one to two tenths and temps falling quickly into the 20s Tuesday night, the greatest threat/concern could end up being the development of black ice from the flash freezing of moisture on roads, sidewalks and elevated surfaces. Lows Tuesday night ranging from near 20 north to mid 20s south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 The 18z FV3 GFS Snowmap on TT is completely different from pivotal... not sure what's going on there... anyone chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Trying to understand the SAR as i am a novice. Can someone help me determine the mean, high low amounts of this SAR reading of Calhoun Ga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Read on the Mid-atlantic forum that the 18z Euro was drier overall... definitely not what we want to see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 See if Nam can hold serve here at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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