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1/29- 1/30 Storm Threat

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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So I regarding mid week ... I didn't like the 00z complexion from the guidance.

The 18z EPS mean (yesterday) may have been the max.  The 00z and 06Z marked the end of the secondary identity "improvement" trend, and the fact that we are now < 5 days being asked of the Euro cluster ...that's not a very good sign. We quickly hockey stick (favorably) that particular cluster's performance curve - code for wrong direction for storm enthusiasts.

I'm willing to concede to a seasonal trend for disappointment here.  I try to maintain an objective vigil, and believe so that I still am by nodding to the fact that the least plausible outcome has succeeded, relative to all intents and indicators ... pretty much the entire way this season, and that there is a certain wisdom in being aware of that. This winter has simply been vastly more proficient at pointing out the virtuosity of keeping one's expectations stabled. And for that 'panache' ... my own horses are not leaving the barn on this one. 

I was willing to air optimism through that 18z run but ... actually, 'tell ya the truth I saw the 108 hour operational GFS last night, and it was that that ironically turned me off.. And so I did, all access points to any Meteorological data, and choose to instead zombie out in front of the tube.  It occurred to me just what the EPS (and some trends in the operational version, too) were attempting to do up through and including 18z...

The flow is just too compressed and they were physically clawing to overcome that - metaphorically speaking.

one, the trough/closed arctic SPV is carving south a bit too far west of climatology.  That can be overcome ... (one of the reasons I was entertaining the notion). Systems sometimes do end up more tilted in the vertical. That happens when there is a 'hydrostatic disruption to the normal cyclone model' between mechanical forcing position(s) in space and time over top lower level resistance. Some variant of this latter is what you were hoping for, and those prior Euro runs may have (faux) offered hope. 

two, prior to any of that ... the mid level wind velocities in the ambient hemisphere are negating individual S/Ws. Their mechanical forcing get reduced, and this plight includes the wind maxes associated with the SPV itself.  This is not an absolute limitation.. it's more like a toll on cyclogenesis.  Storms form in that sort of mealstrom but...they tend to be weaker and/or very fast moving. Really....  you want these undulating flow constructs, but with less isohypsotic gradient while still having cold thickness availability. S/W comes along with a 100 kt max, and more of that wind is thus mechanically forcing... When the wind is already 50 or 70 knots or more... the 100 kt S/W has an effective d(v) of only 50 ...  

So, 50.    100.   Which one has the bigger storm? 

Anyway, it's not a huge loss ... this really is pretty explainable ...well enough in advance, why this is probablistically slated to be less meaningful. This is a good situation to assume less and be pleasantly surprised.

Having said all that... I agree with the not in time idea ... and that some kind of wintry QPF is still warranted.   

There ... now that I've dared align expectations toward low end impact... the entire SPV is going to move bodily under LI and wipe SNE off the map

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Massplow

Massplow

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Havnt paid much attention to this one and am wondering if this has any potential to get snow in the Boston area? Have a few plow trucks that I need to fix and trying to decide if it’s worth me spending the whole weekend fixing them or if this is just gonna be more rain.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

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Just now, Massplow said:

Havnt paid much attention to this one and am wondering if this has any potential to get snow in the Boston area? Have a few plow trucks that I need to fix and trying to decide if it’s worth me spending the whole weekend fixing them or if this is just gonna be more rain.

Rain is a safe bet in Boston

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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4 minutes ago, Massplow said:

Havnt paid much attention to this one and am wondering if this has any potential to get snow in the Boston area? Have a few plow trucks that I need to fix and trying to decide if it’s worth me spending the whole weekend fixing them or if this is just gonna be more rain.

I’d probably favor something not plowable right now. However if these trucks spread salt, that may need to be used. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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8 minutes ago, Massplow said:

Havnt paid much attention to this one and am wondering if this has any potential to get snow in the Boston area? Have a few plow trucks that I need to fix and trying to decide if it’s worth me spending the whole weekend fixing them or if this is just gonna be more rain.

Some snow in the Boston metro area - I'm assuming 'metro' is what you're after? 

Once past January we get into the seasonal SST nadir in the Harbor and GOM regions... and with CAD (cold air damming) nosing down, ... warm contamination from the nearby ocean becomes less factored.

That's A

B... the standard metric, the 850 mb isotherm, is agreed upon by the more dependable guidance types (and the associated synoptic reasoning) to align somewhere S of the city... while the best forcing for QPF is passing through. 

There is some wiggle room with these considerations ... barely.  But, that's the way it looks to me now, and I'd think a burst of light to moderate snow by < 4" is the more plausible result, barring any such wiggle.  Keeping in mind, we have 4 solid days from 00z guidance last night ...so this isn't the Dead Sea scrolls.

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Massplow

Massplow

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Some snow in the Boston metro area - I'm assuming 'metro' is what you're after? 

Once past January we get into the seasonal SST nadir in the Harbor and GOM regions... and with CAD (cold air damming) nosing down, ... warm contamination from the nearby ocean becomes less factored.

That's A

B... the standard metric, the 850 mb isotherm, is agreed upon by the more dependable guidance types (and the associated synoptic reasoning) to align somewhere S of the city... while the best forcing for QPF is passing through. 

There is some wiggle room with these considerations ... barely.  But, that's the way it looks to me now, and I'd think a burst of light to moderate snow by < 4" is the more plausible result, barring any such wiggle.  Keeping in mind, we have 4 solid days from 00z guidance last night ...so this isn't the Dead Sea scrolls.

Yeah more like the Dedham/ Hyde park area. Also Sharon foxboro mansfield area. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Not your fault Ray, but part of the fault lies with the word "Vortex"- people automatically assume tornado or some sort of violent cyclone when they see that word (as a matter of fact, even the word cyclone just means low pressure system, but tropical cyclone has changed how it gets interpreted.)  

Anyone who viewed the initial post in this thread as hype is either illiterate, or didn't read the article. I went to great lengths to dispell the sensationalism and myths regarding the polar vortex, and explcity explained what it is, and is not.

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