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1/29- 1/30 Storm Threat


40/70 Benchmark

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

18z EURO sums up the season to date with a very sharp NW to SE gradient.

Let me know if I'm being obnoxious...genuinely not trying to piss people off as I know what it's like to constantly see less than ideal solutions in storm tracks.

CJE4kcw.png

Enjoy the snow feast. You've got a five course gourmet meal and don't have to share it with nobody.

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That's a frustrating look around here if the 0Z Euro verified.  Just west of here would get pounded pretty good with warning amounts while we scraped an inch or two.  I'm getting pretty frustrated with this season thus far. Is it too much to ask for one freakin classic fairly easy to track widespread snowfall event without diagnosing what needs to freakin change in the setup, if only this, if only that over and over again.  We need the energy to dig more, the ridge off the east coast is too strong. we need more blocking -NAO, too much confluence, compressed flow, destructive interference, pna is too flat, watch out for that Scooter streak in Canada, ensembles look better than the OP, the weeklies look great week 3 and 4, the mjo is heading back to 5,6,   and on and on with the dangling carrots and every conceivable way to get freakin screwed. How bout a nice wall of blue on radar for hours upon hours with no worries of staring at a dual pol or obs or at the thermometer and waiting for a freakin mixing line and taint in the middle of winter in interior Southern  New England or watching six inches of glacial pack get absolutely demolished by 3 inches of pouring rain and 55 degree temps two days after freezing my azz off in 2 degree weather in the middle of the day.   Is it really that much to ask? Move to futility if needed but man have I had it with this garbage.  Still can't throw in the towel completely on this next event and hopefully February will deliver a couple of classic events to get the taste of this sh*t winter out of our mouths.  

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16 hours ago, weathafella said:

Ya know....the pattern is eerily similar to immediately before the big snow blitz beginning on 1/26/15.   Now all we need is a 60 hour hook and latter with that big ocean low.

woke up on Saturday and suddenly the euro (on its own at that point) had us buried late Monday.

Ya think???   Already said this back on Friday...but nobody even gave it a look lol...

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Box is pit-friendly:

Tuesday
Snow likely, mainly after 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Tuesday Night
Snow. Low around 21. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Wednesday
Snow likely, mainly before 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 23. West wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
 
Then, maybe the mild-up to begin February will inspire good early season tips in the lawn thread.
12*
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21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone who viewed the initial post in this thread as hype is either illiterate, or didn't read the article. I went to great lengths to dispell the sensationalism and myths regarding the polar vortex, and explcity explained what it is, and is not.

Do you think the meteorologists and the general weather community has some sort of responsibility in using less explosive terms for the general population- for example, polar low instead of polar vortex?  I dont think it affects anyone on our forum because everyone around here is familiar with the terminology, it's just when the mass corporate media grabs a term they think can get them more clicks or more viewers or readers they take it and run with it.

 

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8 hours ago, Snow88 said:

It's amazing how the coastal areas can't even get a light snowfall.

Pretty sad

no it's not this was general climatology for us through the 80s and early 90s.

There's some sort of feedback mechanism that favors persistence, it's something that can be broken with one major snowfall but until then the same repeats.

 

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4 hours ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

That's a frustrating look around here if the 0Z Euro verified.  Just west of here would get pounded pretty good with warning amounts while we scraped an inch or two.  I'm getting pretty frustrated with this season thus far. Is it too much to ask for one freakin classic fairly easy to track widespread snowfall event without diagnosing what needs to freakin change in the setup, if only this, if only that over and over again.  We need the energy to dig more, the ridge off the east coast is too strong. we need more blocking -NAO, too much confluence, compressed flow, destructive interference, pna is too flat, watch out for that Scooter streak in Canada, ensembles look better than the OP, the weeklies look great week 3 and 4, the mjo is heading back to 5,6,   and on and on with the dangling carrots and every conceivable way to get freakin screwed. How bout a nice wall of blue on radar for hours upon hours with no worries of staring at a dual pol or obs or at the thermometer and waiting for a freakin mixing line and taint in the middle of winter in interior Southern  New England or watching six inches of glacial pack get absolutely demolished by 3 inches of pouring rain and 55 degree temps two days after freezing my azz off in 2 degree weather in the middle of the day.   Is it really that much to ask? Move to futility if needed but man have I had it with this garbage.  Still can't throw in the towel completely on this next event and hopefully February will deliver a couple of classic events to get the taste of this sh*t winter out of our mouths.  

Don't forget March. It could come in yards just when everyone wants daffodils. It's Metacomet's revenge arctic; cold and brown earth, suffocating humidity and gray skies. All the stuff you love about SNE weather.

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19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We don't have a ton of margin for error because the NAO blocking has not been there, but its not been a 2007 or 1995, either.  Given the latter, usually we would have some SWs flex at just the right time to avail themselves of the antecedent airmass, but it just hasn't happen. Up until 1/20, I think it was a combo of bad luck and the SSW screwing with things that left less snowfall than my outlook would imply, however from this week forward, my efforts are more culpable because there still isn't an NAO developing yet. That is a miss on my part....the only thing that was beforehand is the SSW....which I think manifested as a net detriment to us. We didn't need it....I think it focused blocking on the other side of the globe, and actually provided some deconstructive interference to Atlantic blocking....but that is admittedly speculation of my part. However I also said that it didn't matter which side of the globe it focuses on, as it would just mean less bitter cold, and that looks to have been wrong. 

Shows how important the NAO can be with a soso Pac.  We need storms to thread a needle starting from 3000 miles away, most of the time that doesn't work out!

 

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10 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Don't forget March. It could come in yards just when everyone wants daffodils. It's Metacomet's revenge arctic; cold and brown earth, suffocating humidity and gray skies. All the stuff you love about SNE weather.

Last winter was light years ahead of this one but if we have a similar March/April all will be forgiven.

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1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Yes, but we can see where this is going. We pull teeth for a few, unsure sloppy inches and it’s naked snow angels up north. Can’t we even cook up a good ol fashion fantasy bomb? Like a 384hr gfs op dawn awakening? Just so I can pull my weenie out and prevent it from going completely flaccid...

Practice makes perfect which is why you should pull it out for extreme cold, wind, dews, and severe.....not just snow. Or, just leave it unzipped around the clock in anticipation. 

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