dryslot Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Euro, Another couple tics east and a tic or two colder as well, Most guidance today has ticked that direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Euro, Another couple tics east and a tic or two colder as well, Most guidance today has ticked that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Euro, Another couple tics east and a tic or two colder as well, Most guidance today has ticked that direction. Did you move to SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Filling in CT a bit for sure compared to prior runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Euro, Another couple tics east and a tic or two colder as well, Most guidance today has ticked that direction. I'll take 4-5" and run. Will be nice to get something a little fluffier on the glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: Did you move to SNE? lol, No, But already knew what was happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Euro, Another couple tics east and a tic or two colder as well, Most guidance today has ticked that direction. The warm push isn't overly strong in the boundary layer and we have a nice airmas preceding it with a vestige of high pressure nosing down....that almost always results in a trend of less warming as we get near verification time. It can also result in lowering of QPF which is what we have seen....less warm push means less isentropic lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: lol, No, But already knew what was happening here. Coastal areas of Maine are now cursed since MPM has a house there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The warm push isn't overly strong in the boundary layer and we have a nice airmas preceding it with a vestige of high pressure nosing down....that almost always results in a trend of less warming as we get near verification time. It can also result in lowering of QPF which is what we have seen....less warm push means less isentropic lift. Yup, But i will take the offset on qpf if the fluff factor is higher, Doing more with less, Looks up here now, We don't sniff the taint now. Edit: actually bumped up qpf here from 06z as it shifted some of that heavier qpf out of the foothills SE, Went from .6 to .8 this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Coastal areas of Maine are now cursed since MPM has a house there. Mike brought his qpf woes NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Euro, Another couple tics east and a tic or two colder as well, Most guidance today has ticked that direction. Oooh oooh oooh. A nice 3-4” spot here. Please let that work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Mike brought his qpf woes NE. What are Portland's seasonal snow totals? Couldn't be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The warm push isn't overly strong in the boundary layer and we have a nice airmas preceding it with a vestige of high pressure nosing down....that almost always results in a trend of less warming as we get near verification time. It can also result in lowering of QPF which is what we have seen....less warm push means less isentropic lift. Yeah that front end bullseye that was showing up for here has been slowly fading as the CAD extends a bit further south and the thermal gradient over S NH weakens on the progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The warm push isn't overly strong in the boundary layer and we have a nice airmas preceding it with a vestige of high pressure nosing down....that almost always results in a trend of less warming as we get near verification time. It can also result in lowering of QPF which is what we have seen....less warm push means less isentropic lift. Colder trend that still results in taking me from 1-2" to nothing, as the gradient tightens 2 miles northwest of me. Can't make it up. I'll take it, over 1" of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: What are Portland's seasonal snow totals? Couldn't be great. Let me look in the Jan thread, I had posted them this morning as of 01/27, I think there slightly above normal, They're at 34.5", Normal is 32.0" for that date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yup, But i will take the offset on qpf if the fluff factor is higher, Doing more with less, Looks up here now, We don't sniff the taint now. I'm tossing the fluff factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Colder trend that still results in taking me from 1-2" to nothing, as the gradient tightens 2 miles northwest of me. Can't make it up. I'll take it, over 1" of slop. I don't think the warmth is in the cards for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don't think the warmth is in the cards for you. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 As usual, Models just starting to sniff the CAD late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Huh? You'll prob end up staying mostly snow. This is trending into more of a CF type deal (esp up your way) where the rain stays southeast of it...and you're gonna be NW of the CF most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I don't think the warmth is in the cards for you. We do this every time. Even the GFS is 19F and snowing here Tue afternoon. It's not going to take much to make the cold overperform into NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Huh? The 925mb warmth that was flipping Merrimack valley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Huh? I meant that I could see you pretty much snow..maybe you briefly tickle taint from near 925, but I don't think SE winds are penetrating that far NW into your hood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: You'll prob end up staying mostly snow. This is trending into more of a CF type deal (esp up your way) where the rain stays southeast of it...and you're gonna be NW of the CF most likely. I'll look at it tonight. Haven't had much time lately due to some complications with the wife (you and Scott know what I'm referring to), so I'm a bit edgy today. I'd def. take like 3"+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 15 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Filling in CT a bit for sure compared to prior runs Yes Sir....we'll take that for sure in this paltry season to date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: Mike brought his qpf woes NE. And now to ORH 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: We do this every time. Even the GFS is 19F and snowing here Tue afternoon. It's not going to take much to make the cold overperform into NE MA. I'm usually on top of it, but hasn't been my main priority this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll look at it tonight. Haven't had much time lately due to some complications with the wife (you and Scott know what I'm referring to), so I'm a bit edgy today. I'd def. take like 3"+. CF may actually help you here. Some of the models have some brief enhancement there as the warmer stuff smacks into the CAD in S NH. I think the 00z stuff tonight probably will show it more effectively as we seem to be trending that way each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Yes Sir....we'll take that for sure in this paltry season to date. I've reached the point where I'd almost like to see if I can go the whole of meteorological winter without 5". If a big event comes along, awesome, but otherwise I'd almost rather skip it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: And now to ORH At least I never complained about QPF while living on north side of ORH...people would have taken a tire iron to me at the GTGs if I did....esp Ray "you are always just far enough in the right direction"....we will see if MPM has the guts to complain. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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