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1/29- 1/30 Storm Threat


40/70 Benchmark

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  On 1/26/2019 at 6:19 PM, NorEastermass128 said:

Do coastal areas get anything from the southern stream?  

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You talking about that front running wave at 72 hours? 

Nothing from that. It's all about the redevelopment along the front which does make it tough for coastal areas.l because of onshore flow. Interior looks like it has CAD in low levels though. 

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  On 1/26/2019 at 6:20 PM, ORH_wxman said:

You talking about that front running wave at 72 hours? 

Nothing from that. It's all about the redevelopment along the front which does make it tough for coastal areas.l because of onshore flow. Interior looks like it has CAD in low levels though. 

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Okay. Seems like those inside 495 miss out on this by a few hours of quicker development or 75 miles of further E development. Dang it. 

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  On 1/26/2019 at 6:25 PM, weathafella said:

Last nights run was better for that.

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This one was actually further east but slightly weaker. Last nights was good for better dynamics. 

I think this can still pop pretty quickly along the front. We'll see. In this winter I'll take 3 or 4 inches if that's what it is. 

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  On 1/26/2019 at 6:26 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gross snow map, what a fraud system.

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DC snowfall > My snowfall again... There won't be any melting here (I'm used to this growing up in the mid atlantic region), but I am about ready to move onto spring. I'm tired of paying to heat the house when the ground is bare. It is comical at this point, everything that could go wrong has this season.

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  On 1/26/2019 at 6:24 PM, ORH_wxman said:

If that vort on the eastern edge of the trough strengthens it could be faster development and you get a really good flash and period of Heavy snow to the coast. That is what you want to root for. 

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I've been noting a slow, gradual cave by the ECMWF suite toward the GFS for this one re: worsening angular momentum from the TPV. It's now similar to the GFS in that regard. The ECMWF/EPS prior, had the TPV oriented in a much more elongated favorable manner, such that it acted constructively to the sern vort intensification. Now it depicts the TPV as a "ball of vorticity" with little elongation and thus not much aid to the sern vort; it dampens its intensity. 

It's possible this reverses, but not looking good for the more intense sfc low option right now, unfortunately. Fairly sizable error for medium range ECMWF suite.

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  On 1/26/2019 at 6:34 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you want a nice advisory 3-6/4-8” event like Will/Euro described or do want nothing? If you want -10 next week and grass continues melting 

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What we want doesn't affect what happens. 

This system is worth following in the interior for a few inches. I prob wouldn't be following it as closely along the coast though. 

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  On 1/26/2019 at 6:38 PM, ORH_wxman said:

What we want doesn't affect what happens. 

This system is worth following in the interior for a few inches. I prob wouldn't be following it as closely along the coast though. 

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He’s moaning and melting faster than his Bomb pops and high dews he ate on his front steps, from the ice cream truck did every night this past summer. So he only gets 3-6” or whatever .The problem with this place is most of these weenies want big storms. And they can’t enjoy small events . I’ve just never understood that 

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  On 1/26/2019 at 6:34 PM, Isotherm said:

 

I've been noting a slow, gradual cave by the ECMWF suite toward the GFS for this one re: worsening angular momentum from the TPV. It's now similar to the GFS in that regard. The ECMWF/EPS prior, had the TPV oriented in a much more elongated favorable manner, such that it acted constructively to the sern vort intensification. Now it depicts the TPV as a "ball of vorticity" with little elongation and thus not much aid to the sern vort; it dampens its intensity. 

It's possible this reverses, but not looking good for the more intense sfc low option right now, unfortunately. Fairly sizable error for medium range ECMWF suite.

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The previous versions of the euro were bad for New England. Too much of a good thing on the PV stretching southeast. It drove the low inland. We need a hybrid solution which is still possible. Doesn't look great for the coastline though with onshore flow ahead of the low. 

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