ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 12z NAM actually clips jimmy on the Cape now with the front running Ocean storm at d3. That has been edging west each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 2:37 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think its going west of Boston. Expand It should go east of the elbow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 1:54 PM, dendrite said: 3/8/05 Expand I did my Synoptic II case study paper on that storm. Started out as a light freezing rain in Plymouth, NH and then went to one of the most intense wind whipped blizzards I can recall. We got 6" or so, but it was super intense. Anyway, I like where I stand for this upcoming event. It doesn't look like a big ticket event, but I think a decent moderate event is in order the way it stands now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 2:37 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think its going west of Boston. Expand It’s where the intitial development occurs as it moves up the coast that’ll determine snow vs shit. I’d prefer this development to occur along HAT then move NNEftom there. Right now that ain’t happening James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 This is a lose, lose situation if you want a big sne event.....a more proficient phase is going to track further west bc there is nothing to stop it from doing so, and a favorable track will result in a meager, disjointed mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 2:44 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is a lose, lose situation if you want a big sne event.....a more proficient phase is going to track further west bc there is nothing to stop it from doing so, and a favorable track will result in a meager, disjointed mess. Expand I just want a 3-6”/ 4-8” storm imby. Been 2-1/2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4-8” will make all of us happy. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Id guess this storm is going to go right over me, like the storm before the cutter. There is nothing in our current pattern that has changed from a NNE favored gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 2:44 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is a lose, lose situation if you want a big sne event.....a more proficient phase is going to track further west bc there is nothing to stop it from doing so, and a favorable track will result in a meager, disjointed mess. Expand I support this post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 2:40 PM, ORH_wxman said: 12z NAM actually clips jimmy on the Cape now with the front running Ocean storm at d3. That has been edging west each run. Expand I’m rooting for that. The more that comes West, the lower heights will be over the southeast and baroclinic zone can’t recover as quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 2:54 PM, CoastalWx said: I’m rooting for that. The more that comes West, the lower heights will be over the southeast and baroclinic zone can’t recover as quick. Expand Why do you want the baroclonic zone to not recover, to avoid a phased hugger mid week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 2:51 PM, #NoPoles said: Id guess this storm is going to go right over me, like the storm before the cutter. There is nothing in our current pattern that has changed from a NNE favored gradient pattern. Expand The pattern has changed, regardless of whether or not it snows in Plymouth. However the NAO is not part of said changes, unfortunately. Try to wrap your mind around that as the PV queefs and sends icy ripples through your puddles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 2:51 PM, Damage In Tolland said: 4-8” will make all of us happy. Enjoy Expand Good luck On 1/26/2019 at 2:58 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why do you want the baroclonic zone to not recover, to avoid a phased hugger mid week? Expand Think it won’t allow for downstream ridging, preventing storm from tugging back west, but I’ll let scooter chime in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 2:44 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is a lose, lose situation if you want a big sne event.....a more proficient phase is going to track further west bc there is nothing to stop it from doing so, and a favorable track will result in a meager, disjointed mess. Expand On 1/26/2019 at 2:51 PM, Damage In Tolland said: 4-8” will make all of us happy. Enjoy Expand I'm not sure if these two statements are at odds, but especially at this point of the winter I would call anything that includes an 8" in the range a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 2:58 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why do you want the baroclonic zone to not recover, to avoid a phased hugger mid week? Expand I'm all set with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 3:04 PM, moneypitmike said: I'm not sure if these two statements are at odds, but especially at this point of the winter I would call anything that includes an 8" in the range a win. Expand I think 3-6" is def. doable....but 4-8" is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 3:05 PM, CoastalWx said: I'm all set with rain. Expand Figured....I'd take the 3" on the front end. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Ray you and I are almost in the same boat, as longitude is an issue with the angle of approach. I'm all set with this phasing into a 970 bomb that buries KSLK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I just want an all out snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 3:08 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I just want an all out snowstorm Expand Keep waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 3:07 PM, CoastalWx said: Ray you and I are almost in the same boat, as longitude is an issue with the angle of approach. I'm all set with this phasing into a 970 bomb that buries KSLK. Expand Bingo. Angle of the dangle is downward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 3:08 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I just want an all out snowstorm Expand Make sure to ask santa for one next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 3:07 PM, CoastalWx said: Ray you and I are almost in the same boat, as longitude is an issue with the angle of approach. I'm all set with this phasing into a 970 bomb that buries KSLK. Expand I think I'm a little better off than you are. Gradient looks like it would be sw to ne to me...pretty standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 RGem looks further west with SE storm as well. Guess that's my only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 3:14 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think I'm a little better off than you are. Gradients looks like it would be sw to ne to me...pretty standard. Expand A little, but I'd rather be in HFD than PWM if you know what I mean. They'll be onshore flow ahead of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 3:15 PM, SouthCoastMA said: RGem looks further west with SE storm as well. Guess that's my only hope Expand RGEM blows this far out. Don't even look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 3:16 PM, CoastalWx said: A little, but I'd rather be in HFD than PWM if you know what I mean. They'll be onshore flow ahead of this. Expand Being West of HFD like Berg and I might be even better with this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Anyways, we'll see. In an ideal weenie world, I want to get clipped with the srn stream and have weenie 12/20/08 light snow from onshore flow, and then have the second low bomb over Jimmy. Is that a lot to ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 3:00 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: The pattern has changed, regardless of whether or not it snows in Plymouth. However the NAO is not part of said changes, unfortunately. Try to wrap your mind around that as the PV queefs and sends icy ripples through your puddles. Expand The pattern has changed, the storm track was not greatly affected by said changes...sure we get intrusions of the PV, now...but currently it is still a gradient pattern favoring NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 3:24 PM, CoastalWx said: Anyways, we'll see. In an ideal weenie world, I want to get clipped with the srn stream and have weenie 12/20/08 light snow from onshore flow, and then have the second low bomb over Jimmy. Is that a lot to ask? Expand No I hate having rain during the mid-winter part of the year. I need some snow, to help my dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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