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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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Clarification... 

"Luck" and "chance" are what occurs when the observer doesn't see or get to see, all the subtle forces in real time the effect the emergence of future circumstance/events.  That sounds similar to the plight of weather prognostics - duh! 

If one could readily quantize/qualify all the Quantum States of every Plank-length virtual or real particle in real time ... with exactness ( something on the order of incalculably large ... Googleplex ... mind you )  then they would know what all possible permutations are available to a given domain space, in a given time; and then "chance" ... "luck" ... whatever we want call or define uncertainty, is no longer uncertain and therefore, ceases to exist.

Until then?  To get around chance's rearing it's ugly unpropitious influence, or kindly favorable outcomes, would require something like omniscience be available to either the technology, or the artist. 

Not happening ... 

In other words, luck in human parlance is purely a function of human limitations.   Just get over it and move on... If you don't know, and things happen in favor, or against ... that is by definition chance working in favor or against... If you don't want to call it luck, when "luck" is defined by chance - than you have issues accepting either the language or the reality...  

I suspect its the language... because one phenomenon I've noted about dealing with the public over the last decade of on and off involvement with social -media of this nature, is that when people are aggravated and p'ode and annoyed by what they are not getting out of the drama of modeling and/or the realization of the type of weather they want ... they redirect into vapid bickering over how others choose to describe thing.   Ugh - ice pick in the ear socket man...  Let it f'n go!   

 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Clarification... 

"Luck" and "chance" are what occurs when the observer doesn't see or get to see, all the subtle forces in real time the effect the emergence of future circumstance/events.  That sounds similar to the plight of weather prognostics - duh! 

If one could readily quantize/qualify all the Quantum States of every Plank-length virtual or real particle in real time ... with exactness ( something on the order of incalculably large ... Googleplex ... mind you )  then they would know what all possible permutations are available to a given domain space, in a given time; and then "chance" ... "luck" ... whatever we want call or define uncertainty, is no longer uncertain and therefore, ceases to exist.

Until then?  To get around chance's rearing it's ugly unpropitious influence, or kindly favorable outcomes, would require something like omniscience be available to either the technology, or the artist. 

Not happening ... 

In other words, luck in human parlance is purely a function of human limitations.   Just get over it and move on... If you don't know, and things happen in favor, or against ... that is by definition chance working in favor or against... If you don't want to call it luck, when "luck" is defined by chance - than you have issues accepting either the language or the reality...  

I suspect its the language... because one phenomenon I've noted about dealing with the public over the last decade of on and off involvement with social -media of this nature, is that when people are aggravated and p'ode and annoyed by what they are not getting out of the drama of modeling and/or the realization of the type of weather they want ... they redirect into vapid bickering over how others choose to describe thing.   Ugh - ice pick in the ear socket man...  Let it f'n go!   

 

"then"

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Our so called "snowy week"..is going down the tubes faster than we all would have liked....such a lousy winter season for SNE, everything goes to junk as we close in like in the 80's.  Just plain sucks.   Wow...where are the mild sunny days when you really need them in this Crap pattern???  I know...they're not around either.  Just have to suffer through this like we used to I guess.

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Just now, Whineminster said:

In all reality this winter hasn't been THAT bad.....we had a few storms which were of moderate impact, pretty good cold (enough to ice fish), and the typical warm ups here and there.  Plus NNE has been cashing in, which is good to see as they're supposed to snow.  There's been plenty of worse winters. 

It has sucked bad for the 95 corridor east where most live. But you are right there have been a ton worse

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I'm at 17.75" of Snow for the season to date...a decent event, and a big one would go along way to making this season much better.  11-12 was about 17" or 18" here...so we are in that territory currently.  I know its just mid Feb, and there should be more snow to come...but if not, then this is in 2011-2012 territory, which was a full on Ratter.

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1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

In all reality this winter hasn't been THAT bad.....we had a few storms which were of moderate impact, pretty good cold (enough to ice fish), and the typical warm ups here and there.  Plus NNE has been cashing in, which is good to see as they're supposed to snow.  There's been plenty of worse winters. 

There's been a lot of icing in the interior...like 3-4 separate events...so from that standpoint its more of a wintry appeal than, say, 2011-2012 or 2001-2002 when we hardly had anything and mild temps.

 

Probably what makes this winter more frustrating than some other ratters is the eternal hope....despite some of my fellow posters disagreeing, this pattern has offered a lot of chances and most of them aren't breaking our way....or even when they try to, it's a lot of sleet/ZR instead of bigger snows. An active pattern with a lot of cold lurking gives us hope....it isn't like 2001-2002 where it was mild and even when it was cold enough, there were no storms whatsoever. It was a dry and mild winter which is how most of our ratters go.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Our so called "snowy week"..is going down the tubes faster than we all would have liked....such a lousy winter season for SNE, everything goes to junk as we close in like in the 80's.  Just plain sucks.   Wow...where are the mild sunny days when you really need them in this Crap pattern???  I know...they're not around either.  Just have to suffer through this like we used to I guess.

You watching computer models shit the bed in the 1980s on the internet with Al Gore?

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14 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

In all reality this winter hasn't been THAT bad.....we had a few storms which were of moderate impact, pretty good cold (enough to ice fish), and the typical warm ups here and there.  Plus NNE has been cashing in, which is good to see as they're supposed to snow.  There's been plenty of worse winters. 

LOL.  3 accumulating snow events in 3 months time is the definition of suckage.  No sustained ice here that I would have felt safe to venture out onto

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's been a lot of icing in the interior...like 3-4 separate events...so from that standpoint its more of a wintry appeal than, say, 2011-2012 or 2001-2002 when we hardly had anything and mild temps.

 

Probably what makes this winter more frustrating than some other ratters is the eternal hope....despite some of my fellow posters disagreeing, this pattern has offered a lot of chances and most of them aren't breaking our way....or even when they try to, it's a lot of sleet/ZR instead of bigger snows. An active pattern with a lot of cold lurking gives us hope....it isn't like 2001-2002 where it was mild and even when it was cold enough, there were no storms whatsoever. It was a dry and mild winter which is how most of our ratters go.

 

 

Yes Here are the big reasons 

belief of a flip to very good pattern always 10 days away (every damn week lol) 

and also a lot of rain falling in Jan and FEB are the gut punches for me

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

LOL.  3 accumulating snow events in 3 months time is the definition of suckage.  No sustained ice here that I would have felt safe to venture out onto

Man you are like 45 minutes from me and a world apart. Although it hasn't been anything to write home about it hasn't been as bad as you guys East of 95 have had it cold and snow wise. Solid 2 inches of pure concrete this morning 

 

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13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You watching computer models shit the bed in the 1980s on the internet with Al Gore?

Obviously not watching models....but I was in my teens through the 80's, and just remember so many more times than not, watching the chances for snow and storms just go down the tubes as we closed in on them...just like now.   So that's what I mean by what I said.   I used to say to myself in the 80's...SNE is the land of the sabotaged snow storms...something always goes wrong.  And almost all the time it did.  Sure there were a few exceptions where things broke right...but most of the 80's was just like it is this season, with plenty of cold around, and storms all over the place, just they were never in the right location/or the timing was off, and things just never panned out most of the time.

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If the early season outlooks by all the pro and amateur weenies had said this season will probably suck, it would be easier to take where we are now. Unfortunately that didn't happen. Instead we had everyone and their dog beating there chests and pushing above average snow for the masses (some like 200% above). When things looked shaky to start, instead of caution flags, the LR guys doubled down and said it was delayed not denied. Hopes are more deflated than they otherwise would be. Oh well, a rat was due so might as well get it over with.

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Obviously not watching models....but I was in my teens through the 80's, and just remember so many more times than not, watching the chances for snow and storms just go down the tubes as we closed in on them...just like now.   So that's what I mean by what I said.   I used to say to myself in the 80's...SNE is the land of the sabotaged snow storms...something always goes wrong.  And almost all the time it did.  Sure there were a few exceptions where things broke right...but most of the 80's was just like it is this season, with plenty of cold around, and storms all over the place, just they were never in the right location/or the timing was off, and things just never panned out most of the time.

 

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Whether the governing causes are the same or not ...  who knows, but ... the end result is a winter that does remind me a good deal of that era ... ~ 1983 - 1988 or so...  

Someone will now try to prove that wrong by dissecting the causality of both and demonstrate how they are not the same ... don't bother.  I just said, 'whether the governing causes are the same or not' - talking about the finished product only. 

Having said that, as Jerry just recently reminded ... there have been winters in the past where some 70% of that season's winter expression came after the 20th of the February...  I get it that it's not something this trail of abuses (haha) lends one to believe would ever lead to our collective reward... but, reality and perception do suffer divorce at times. 

The reality is, that possibility cannot be removed.  

By the way,... the GFS' 06z FV3 counterpart tallied somewhere between 20 and 30" pan-region ... owning to five storms, four of which were moderate snow producers.   No one is asking me... but, I don't see any model's solution from overnight as being impossible.  Things could break that way ...with fast moving potency that clocks 4-6" repeaters ... or, grind to a flat ridge ennui hell like the Euro... either is supported.   So, as impossible as it is to be objective and "keep one's hopes alive" as a winter enthusiast, there are still chances...  

But don't worry!  We're not calling it "luck" 

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16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Man you are like 45 minutes from me and a world apart. Although it hasn't been anything to write home about it hasn't been as bad as you guys East of 95 have had it cold and snow wise. Solid 2 inches of pure concrete this morning 

 

The further up and or  in one goes in SNE (New England really) the more pattern combinations will produce winter weather and vice versa . ...to an extreme extent when you look at Stowe/Caribou against SE coast of SNE

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Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

I can’t recall a winter in my life where we didn’t get at least one 6+ snowstorm. Almost unprecedented (to me)

I got mine in November (the 15th) with 8.75" coming....it's been by Far the best of the season!!  Snowed to beat the band..rates ripped with that one.  Who ever thought that would have been the best of the whole winter in the Fall.   Unless something bigger comes marching in over the next month??? But to be honest...I think we will have to just suffer through the next 6 weeks at least, until we get to Misery Mist and dampness for the six weeks after that lol.

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