February 2019 Discussion I

[wxeyeNH]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

And to think yesterday morning when things were looking "Snowy" for Sunday night/Monday, and again Wednesday, there was mention of starting a thread for one of these...thank goodness we didn't. 

Just jumping in here.  Monday and Wednesday still seem to have possibilities.  Im looking more up here in  C NE.  Doesn't the trend over the last couple of runs look better?

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’ll take the -NAO and run with it. First significant -NAO since beginning of the year. 

I see a way out of the shit pattern but everytime we see light at the end of the tunnel there's a rock slide. Its however very possibly it is true.

[EastonSN+]

Canadian has MJO going into COD. Euro COD then very low 1. CFS high 8 and 1. GEFS as stated before. NONE loop back or re-emerge into bad phases. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Sell a -NAO Of Any usefulness

[SnowHole413]

-NAO blips seem to be most likely going forward, however, sell on a full fledged NAO block this year

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

Happy VD.
Hold on to your massive pack, SNE (except for James and the rest of the Cape, and islands).  It will be just a dream soon enough. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Seems hard to manufacture a stout -NAO in a fast overall flow ...  Conceptually, "fast flow" and  "blocking" are at odds.  

So on a sort of rudimentary level of thinking, it's almost easier to assume -NAO would have difficulty being sustained...  Note, I said sustained.  

A transient -NAO, east, west, north or south biased, perhaps... But, we gotta keep in mind, the NAO is a relatively small index domain space, and is prone to smaller scaled influences passing through, that can cause it to move positive(negative) in intra-weekly time scales.   

I think to be fair, folks mean "-NAO" in the context of it being of the variety that is associated with dipping heights over NE N/A? ...Similar to the assistance we witnessed last late February into March of 2018, I'm not sure I see that happening, no.  

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Sell a -NAO Of Any usefulness

Eventually you will be wrong 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Monday and Wednesday are still on table 

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

At this point it certainly isn't luck.  It's just almost straight La Niña gradient pattern.  SNE should've had a bit more snow but it's hard to deny there's something in this pattern that's caused the same areas (BTV to CAR and southern Ontario/Quebec) to snow big almost exclusively from early November through now mid-February.  

This winter hasn't been the luck of an unmanned firehose, these storms are all repeating themselves.  There has to be good synoptic reasoning somewhere for that.  I look forward to your post mortem thoughts.

Except for the two large systems that missed us south.

IMHO, there's absolutely an element of luck (or unpredictable chaos for those who get triggered by the term "luck") to have this little snow despite so many systems. We've been nailed many times in the past on storms that have primaries in the lakes. Instead of 3" and sleet, maybe it's 7" of snow. Those might seem like small difference but they add up if you repeat it 2-3 times. Do we think that if the Euro is correct and it grinds up the shortwave before it reaches us that it was a product of a gradient pattern that keeps hitting NNE? Or do we think that may have been unfortunate timing on a shitstreak that cost SNE a legit shot at a moderate event? In the "zero luck" argument, either the pattern supports a gradient too far north or it doesn't....can't have it both ways which is what happens when you get solutions like the Euro that actually become too compressed. Or like 12/24/18 becoming too compressed so instead of 2-4" it's flurries.

 

The gradient pattern itself is definitely a product of the longwave pattern....but that isn't the argument that Ray or myself have been contesting. '07-'08 had an incredible gradient (and so did '08-'09 to a lesser extent)....but some storms like 12/3/07, 12/30/07, 2/26/08, and 3/28/08 mostly hit NNE....while others hit SNE too. They were only like 50-100 mile wiggles....but they mattered....and they occurred in the context of pretty consistent longwave gradient pattern.

 

For me, the empirical results aren't enough to say random variance had nothing to do with it. I'd like to see something more concrete in the analysis and I just don't see it when looking at the pattern. To me, it's like saying that because the casino has the basic strategy advantage in blackjack, that it has nothing to do with luck when you lose 9 hands in a row. Well, anyone who knows about variance understands that is a bunch of crap. Yeah, you may not be favored, but you don't deserve to lose 9 hands in a row. The actual expected result is probably to lose 5 and win 4. But losing 9 in a row happens from time to time and the natural house edge doesn't explain that.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Monday and Wednesday are still on table 

We need help quickly on Monday...Euro doesn't lose these battles very often. Is the shitstreak that far south real or not? I'd trust the Euro to get that right over other guidance...but agree we can't totally ignore it yet. Maybe it trends better at 12z.

 

I like Wednesday potential more...though I'd like to see the shortwave keep its integrity more as it heads east...that would make it much better.

[dryslot]

I been thinking from my standpoint that the Weds-Thurs deal was better but that could be to some others expense too which would fit the seasonal trend so far.

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Eventually you will be wrong 

Wrong eventually once, but correct with the 100 faux NAOs before that time. This is one case where I think persistence works.

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Except for the two large systems that missed us south.

IMHO, there's absolutely an element of luck (or unpredictable chaos for those who get triggered by the term "luck") to have this little snow despite so many systems. We've been nailed many times in the past on storms that have primaries in the lakes. Instead of 3" and sleet, maybe it's 7" of snow. Those might seem like small difference but they add up if you repeat it 2-3 times. Do we think that if the Euro is correct and it grinds up the shortwave before it reaches us that it was a product of a gradient pattern that keeps hitting NNE? Or do we think that may have been unfortunate timing on a shitstreak that cost SNE a legit shot at a moderate event? In the "zero luck" argument, either the pattern supports a gradient too far north or it doesn't....can't have it both ways which is what happens when you get solutions like the Euro that actually become too compressed. Or like 12/24/18 becoming too compressed so instead of 2-4" it's flurries.

 

The gradient pattern itself is definitely a product of the longwave pattern....but that isn't the argument that Ray or myself have been contesting. '07-'08 had an incredible gradient (and so did '08-'09 to a lesser extent)....but some storms like 12/3/07, 12/30/07, 2/26/08, and 3/28/08 mostly hit NNE....while others hit SNE too. They were only like 50-100 mile wiggles....but they mattered....and they occurred in the context of pretty consistent longwave gradient pattern.

 

For me, the empirical results aren't enough to say random variance had nothing to do with it. I'd like to see something more concrete in the analysis and I just don't see it when looking at the pattern. To me, it's like saying that because the casino has the basic strategy advantage in blackjack, that it has nothing to do with luck when you lose 9 hands in a row. Well, anyone who knows about variance understands that is a bunch of crap. Yeah, you may not be favored, but you don't deserve to lose 9 hands in a row. The actual expected result is probably to lose 5 and win 4. But losing 9 in a row happens from time to time and the natural house edge doesn't explain that.

luck

/lək/

noun

1. 1.

   success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through actions.

    

   My take

   weather is action the past does not predict the future.  You have referenced a casino many times I fail to see any correlation.  We failed to get snow because it was physically impossible nothing more nothing less

    

   There have been countless years of excess precip low snow. The atmosphere doesnt give a crap about correlation either obviously there are no 1 to 1 correlations 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Have shredded N Stream systems not been a product of the compressed height field damn near all season 

[Lava Rock]

33 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

That map is off. There isn't 24" anymore near me

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

luck

/lək/

noun

1. 1.

   success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through actions.

    

   My take

   weather is action the past does not predict the future.  You have referenced a casino many times I fail to see any correlation.  We failed to get snow because it was physically impossible nothing more nothing less

    

Replace "luck" with atmospheric chaos....we're arguing the longwave pattern isn't responsible for such small snow totals. Smaller scale nuances are responsible and that's not driven by the long wave pattern.

 

I think too many are getting caught up in the semantics...so an easy way to say it for me is "The longwave pattern isn't responsible for the excessively low snow totals". All we can do is look at the longwave pattern a week or two in advance....whether a scooter shitstreak keeps things too far SOUTH or a slight phase produces a storm that is slightly too far NORTH is unrpedictable at those time leads. We can't say "SNE is going to be screwed either north or south in this pattern"....all we can say is "We will have chances and hopefully we hit on a couple".

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wrong eventually once, but correct with the 100 faux NAOs before that time. This is one case where I think persistence works.

Maybe but you and I and Pickles all can be wrong. I think we can agree persistence can be the way to forecast until it isn't. Eventually persistence doesn't persist

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Have shredded N Stream systems not been a product of the compressed height field damn near all season 

Yeah, but we've gotten shredded southern stream systems too...that's what the Euro is doing. It's grinding up a strong southern stream system ejecting out of the southwest because of a shitstreak fujiwara-ing with Friday's system at the exact wrong time. To me, that really has nothing to do with a gradient pattern that favors powderfreak...that's unfortunate timing.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

That map is off. There isn't 24" anymore near me

I like using this one better.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, but we've gotten shredded southern stream systems too...that's what the Euro is doing. It's grinding up a strong southern stream system ejecting out of the southwest because of a shitstreak fujiwara-ing with Friday's system at the exact wrong time. To me, that really has nothing to do with a gradient pattern that favors powderfreak...that's unfortunate timing.

Ok 

but the point is we’ve had 20 systems in 3 months , some will inevitably have a shit streak (maybe 2) that’s normal to anticipate given high traffic. 

There has also been about 10-12northern stream systems shredded (pattern-predictable compressed flow)

with regard to “we can’t say wether SNE will be screwed to the North or the south”

??? Um we been screwed 12 times to the north and about 2 to the south , we must be arguing semantics ? In this NNE favored Nina pattern 

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Replace "luck" with atmospheric chaos....we're arguing the longwave pattern isn't responsible for such small snow totals. Smaller scale nuances are responsible and that's not driven by the long wave pattern.

 

I think too many are getting caught up in the semantics...so an easy way to say it for me is "The longwave pattern isn't responsible for the excessively low snow totals". All we can do is look at the longwave pattern a week or two in advance....whether a scooter shitstreak keeps things too far SOUTH or a slight phase produces a storm that is slightly too far NORTH is unrpedictable at those time leads. We can't say "SNE is going to be screwed either north or south in this pattern"....all we can say is "We will have chances and hopefully we hit on a couple".

That's science. When someone says, not you Ray so dont get all millennial snowflake on me, its bad luck my forecast failed, its bullshit 

[tamarack]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The gradient pattern itself is definitely a product of the longwave pattern....but that isn't the argument that Ray or myself have been contesting. '07-'08 had an incredible gradient (and so did '08-'09 to a lesser extent)....but some storms like 12/3/07, 12/30/07, 2/26/08, and 3/28/08 mostly hit NNE....while others hit SNE too. They were only like 50-100 mile wiggles....but they mattered....and they occurred in the context of pretty consistent longwave gradient pattern.

It's like the gradient is about 100 miles north of that winter.  In 2007-08 I recorded 21 snowstorms of 3"+, and 3 of them (14%) had p-type issues.  To date, I've had 9 snowstorms of 3"+, and 7 of them (78%) have had p-type issues - some very minor like yesterday, but some massive (11/13, 12/28, 1/9.)

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ok 

but the point is we’ve had 20 systems in 3 months , some will inevitably have a shit streak (maybe 2) that’s normal to anticipate given high traffic. 

There has also been about 10-12northern stream systems shredded (pattern-predictable compressed flow)

with regard to “we can’t say wether SNE will be screwed to the North or the south”

??? Um we been screwed 12 times to the north and about 2 to the south , we must be arguing semantics ? In this NNE favored Nina pattern 

I don't think anyone argued it favors NNE...that's why I used the casino analogy. They have a house edge so you expect to lose playing basic strategy. But you don't expect to lose 9 in a row....yet that will happen because of factors outside of the house edge. It's called random variance. The longwave pattern has an "NNE house edge", but it doesn't mean SNE has to miss as much as it does and missing storms in both directions plus a few other systems getting ground up before they reach us shows that we've definitely suffered from unfortunate timing that is independent of the longwave pattern.

Why does it have to be one or the other? We can say we weren't favored but we also got screwed on top of that. Like maybe the pattern should have given BOS 20" by now instead of 5". 20 inches would still suck for Boston at this point in the season...so it doesn't ruin your narrative that the pattern wasn't favorable.

 

This works the other direction too...again, someone convince me that longwave pattern in 2007-2008 didn't involve fortunate timing to give north of the pike 80 inches of snow from Ray to my hood in N ORH. Someone convince me that the 2015 longwave pattern would actually give Boston 100 inches in 3 weeks again.

[CT Valley Snowman]

GFS looks shredded on Monday no big surprises there.

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think anyone argued it favors NNE...that's why I used the casino analogy. They have a house edge so you expect to lose playing basic strategy. But you don't expect to lose 9 in a row....yet that will happen because of factors outside of the house edge. It's called random variance. The longwave pattern has an "NNE house edge", but it doesn't mean SNE has to miss as much as it does and missing storms in both directions plus a few other systems getting ground up before they reach us shows that we've definitely suffered from unfortunate timing that is independent of the longwave pattern.

Why does it have to be one or the other? We can say we weren't favored but we also got screwed on top of that. Like maybe the pattern should have given BOS 20" by now instead of 5". 20 inches would still suck for Boston at this point in the season...so it doesn't ruin your narrative that the pattern wasn't favorable.

 

This works the other direction too...again, someone convince me that longwave pattern in 2007-2008 didn't involve fortunate timing to give north of the pike 80 inches of snow from Ray to my hood in N ORH. Someone convince me that the 2015 longwave pattern would actually give Boston 100 inches in 3 weeks again.

BDL is near normal 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

GFS looks shredded on Monday no big surprises there.

I don't think the thurs one will be.....lol

[weathafella]

I’ll take the Thursday threat taint possibly and all over the dinkleshit Monday system.

[dryslot]

Looks more like a strung out SWFE for thurs on the GFS

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

GFS looks shredded on Monday no big surprises there.

Folding like a cheap suit to the Euro....AWT.