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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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25 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

Love the attitudes of Ray and Scooter this week.   Ray ready for Spring Training while Scott slapping down all the MJO/SSW muth@fukk@s who keep eagerly waiting for a 940 Dawn Awakening off CHH.    They're just going to will this to happen and I approve :thumbsup:

All joking aside...my money is still on a large event. But this year has been a tough pill to swallow.

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

Looks like the EPS is starting to back off the -NAO as we get closer, surprise! Hopefully we can score something soon, otherwise I think the groundhog is right and spring is right around the corner. 

In the words of George Clooney from Perfect Storm...."She's not gonna let us out".

As long as that EPO ridging keeps reloading, we will be sucked back into threats and there will be no real warmth outside of cutters. 1980s pattern if that happens. Hopefully we just get on the good side of the gradient for a few storms....and hopefully the PNA ridge starts popping as guidance is trying to show now near month-end.

 

I'm starting to like the Monday threat though.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

In the words of George Clooney from Perfect Storm...."She's not gonna let us out".

As long as that EPO ridging keeps reloading, we will be sucked back into threats and there will be no real warmth outside of cutters. 1980s pattern if that happens. Hopefully we just get on the good side of the gradient for a few storms....and hopefully the PNA ridge starts popping as guidance is trying to show now near month-end.

 

I'm starting to like the Monday threat though.

In this pattern, can coastals even develop?  A few snow/sleet/rain SWFE events seem possible, but I don't know that we get anything with double digits.

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5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

In this pattern, can coastals even develop?  A few snow/sleet/rain SWFE events seem possible, but I don't know that we get anything with double digits.

You need to get lucky for a real coastal (as in Nor' Easter with CCB/deformation/etc) in this longwave pattern....they can happen but you usually want something like a temp Hudson Bay block to form to push an amplifying wave underneath and turn it into a Miller B. Without it, you're hoping for a well-timed phase of some southern stream entity kicking out of the southwest with a rogue PV lobe that tries to dive south or something.

 

It's mostly going to be overrunning threats and SWFE redevelopers....they can produce pretty well sometimes (see 2/5/14, 2/2/15, etc), but it's like pulling teeth this winter to get one to line up for us.

 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a nice mod event. Maybe some CJ too.

Nice stretched trough with the vorticity producing pretty good hangback snows ala 12/20/08....lot of guidance is showing that look. Would be nice for it to verify for once this winter.

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