ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 If you are looking for James Nichols miracles of change....there is sign of the PAC ridge moving east late in the month starting to encroach on the PNA region. It's really the first time we've seen that....finally looks like a bit more Nino type forcing. Obviously it is still out in clown range, but it is something to watch. It would reduce the gradient type pattern look. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Phase 7 in late Feb and March is not bad at all dude . I dont understand the angst in here but I guess its easier on some people to always think the worst. PTSD from earlier in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If you are looking for James Nichols miracles of change....there is sign of the PAC ridge moving east late in the month starting to encroach on the PNA region. It's really the first time we've seen that....finally looks like a bit more Nino type forcing. Obviously it is still out in clown range, but it is something to watch. It would reduce the gradient type pattern look. I would gladly take a just cold enough to snow pattern in March. Dump a foot, clear out, and then warm up to 40F with sun to clear the driveway and walkways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I see katodog lurking. Any dreams lately buddy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I do believe in the "unpredictable chaos/luck" aspect, but I feel like there is something more to the pattern here just like most of the 80s. Torching cutters followed by arctic cold that frequently struggles to hold its ground ahead of the next system is a pattern flaw to me that may/may not have been predictable from a longer lead. Obviously no one will nail down the details of if it will be 36" or 29", but you could maybe say we're going to be more prone to cutters and retreating cold. This has been a crap pattern with chaos also not in SNE's favor so it's been a ratter to date. How much is chaos and how much is pattern? Who knows? But even in super ninos we can score some good events when chaos is on our side. Modeling will continue to improve with time (long range too). But calculating the methane and heat release of every cow dump in the world is difficult for the models to factor in. The models use parameterization anyway where they kind of avg out certain aspects of the geography and conditions to get a best guess estimate of certain variables. They're not factoring the frictional coefficient around PF's picnic tables or a dead hanging branch from one of Kevin's oak trees. I agree totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 40 minutes ago, dendrite said: I would gladly take a just cold enough to snow pattern in March. Dump a foot, clear out, and then warm up to 40F with sun to clear the driveway and walkways. The tip sun angle will do the trick in cooler temps as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 40 minutes ago, dendrite said: I would gladly take a just cold enough to snow pattern in March. Dump a foot, clear out, and then warm up to 40F with sun to clear the driveway and walkways. The tip sun angle will do the trick in cooler temps as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I would gladly take a just cold enough to snow pattern in March. Dump a foot, clear out, and then warm up to 40F with sun to clear the driveway and walkways. That’s perfection to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The GFS has some chances starting over the weekend. Then looks like a big overrunning potential around Day 7-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 That’s a snowy gfs run. Of course we’ve seen this act before but something tells me this has more validity to it. The only concerning aspect is the WC trough just won’t quit so we have to rely on the NAO to finally crawl out of Cohen’s plumber’s crack and show it’s face. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 25 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s perfection to me. I love late Feb and March snow, the sun is warm, the ice is minimal and the skiing is perfect. For outdoor winter fun its the best of times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I love late Feb and March snow, the sun is warm, the ice is minimal and the skiing is perfect. For outdoor winter fun its the best of times. I make my ski trips during this timeframe as well. Unfortunately I haven’t been able to past 2 years but I will use my new dad leave in mid Mar to get away for 2 days to Gore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Yeah fingers crossed this may be an interesting stretch coming up. Unlike recent ones, this one doesn’t look voodoo because it somewhat looks favorable for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah fingers crossed this may be an interesting stretch coming up. Unlike recent ones, this one doesn’t look voodoo because it somewhat looks favorable for us. What is the main difference, you think....relaxation of RNA and AO drop? NAO looks a bit better, too....though certainly not blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is the main difference, you think....relaxation of RNA and AO drop? NAO looks a bit better, too....though certainly not blocking. More STJ action helping to beat sE ridge? Just seems a bit more niño like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 It’s still there at times, but also ridging may be more in the PNA zone for a time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s still there at times, but also ridging may be more in the PNA zone for a time too. At this point, even if we had a historic run and I saved some face, its still a missed call in my book. This season has not behaved how I had anticipated. But I would def. like to save some face. lol At this point, I'll take what I can get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: At this point, even if we had a historic run and I saved some face, its still a missed call in my book. This season has not behaved how I had anticipated. But I would def. like to save some face. lol At this point, I'll take what I can get. If SSW didn't occur, you would've nailed it I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: More STJ action helping to beat sE ridge? Just seems a bit more niño like. How do you easily recognize STJ action...250mb winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, Powderboy413 said: If SSW didn't occur, you would've nailed it I think Eh...I think it def. hurt my cause, but I wouldn't say that. Just don't know. I'm a bottom line kind of guy, and am relentless when I'm right, or think I am....so its gotta go both ways. I missed it...happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: How do you easily recognize STJ action...250mb winds? On satellite we have a kona low with STJ action into mexico and srn Us. Some niño flavor currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Saturday now interesting per 12z Euro for south coast folks. Sunday-Monday also shaping up nicely. Less than 5 days out which is even better. Let's get some! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Saturday quickly turning snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Two close calls on Euro at 12z...some light snow for southern areas on Sat and Sun PM. The late Sunday one has better potential synoptically speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I make my ski trips during this timeframe as well. Unfortunately I haven’t been able to past 2 years but I will use my new dad leave in mid Mar to get away for 2 days to Gore. Gore hasn't been making a lot of snow this season. If the rest of this month and March are light on snowfall, you might want to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Gore hasn't been making a lot of snow this season. If the rest of this month and March are light on snowfall, you might want to pass. I think rest of month is snowy there, the loose granular will fade within two weeks. But yes, plenty of other great options....I just like their layout the best within a 4hr drive from here. And they don’t get the traffic the SVT resorts get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Lot of cross-guidance support for the Feb 20-21 system....that one could be pretty big for someone given the GOM moisture that gets drawn in. Whether its good for us on congrats Ottawa is another story...lol. But right now most of the guidance likes the synoptics for us. Lot of uncertainty on the two systems before that too. Either way, it stays active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2-4 Saturday pike south and more widespread Monday system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Suddenly a snowy pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 2-4 Saturday pike south and more widespread Monday system I know it’s bait....Lol but way to optimistic at this juncture...pump the brakes DIT. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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