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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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2 minutes ago, The_Global_Warmer said:

You guys have an uncanny ability to have things "epically" turn around for your area am the way till the end of March.

 

After a while it can feel hopeless but it's not. 

 

 

Whatever happens, happens. The overall H5 look is good for us, just haven't had much breaks go right. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe what comes back? I mean forecasting regionwide 60’s in early Feb like this is a bit nuts. It’s a look that could easily backdoor. I’d bet Tip picks up on that today. But obviously you could be right 

I was speaking verbatim, not a forecast. But it's pretty warm overall..even for ski country.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Back to tracking faux winter beyond day 10.  Been doing that all season.  “Winter” has failed to arrive each time

I think the more favorable signs we've seen exist inside day 10 now.  We may actually get a -NAO. But, my point to Kevin was that it looks mild next week.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even with the 4" Picks is still Debbie.

Wait , so for the record 

You are falling for the day 10 looks great crap ? Or will it be the step down to its “looks good still”, and then finally “it looks fine , we’ll have our chances “

your waiving 3 caution flags at any -NAO by Feb 10’th forming , I know this 

I’m on record for the 12-15’th on has some promise, we will know by the 7’th if it’s empty promises or not 

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wait , so for the record 

You are falling for the day 10 looks great crap ? Or will it be the step down to its “looks good still”, and then finally “it looks fine , we’ll have our chances “

your waiving 3 caution flags at any -NAO by Feb 10’th forming , I know this 

I’m on record for the 12-15’th on has some promise, we will know by the 7’th if it’s empty promises or not 

NO, I am speaking on a high level. I'm not talking about individual events. We are finally seeing a -NAO show up on the ensembles and not on the weeklies. The Pacific is still -EPO and taint risk, but a boat load of cold too. It could be like 2014 or like what we've had recently. Who knows. But, if we do get a decent -NAO...that's money with the -EPO.  We will have chances. We've just had some bad luck. Sometimes it turns around, sometimes it remains the same. I would be a fool to cancel everything with that look.  Play the odds.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NO, I am speaking on a high level. I'm not talking about individual events. We are finally seeing a -NAO show up on the ensembles and not on the weeklies. The Pacific is still -EPO and taint risk, but a boat load of cold too. It could be like 2014 or like what we've had recently. Who knows. But, if we do get a decent -NAO...that's money with the -EPO.  We will have chances. We've just had some bad luck. Sometimes it turns around, sometimes it remains the same. I would be a fool to cancel everything with that look.  Play the odds.

I would not endorse canceling anything 

I’m simply endorsing your thoughts that when I see a -NAO of significance inside day 5 I will believe it .

 

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Pickles will say 6 hours after it’s inside of d5.   After this date a year ago BOS got 35 inches.

I’m praying for some blocking 

And for the long range to be right once this winter. We need to shake up the Nina circulation and get some blocking or where gonna be struggling to see a decent coastal 

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