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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any comments on Euro next week. Has 50’s Monday and then backdoor thereafter .  Icing threat end of week?

This 12z run (oper) did slosh back warmer some ... It's a continuity break, though, and one that sort of regresses from the better fit/trend that was establishing over the previous two run cycles.  Taken verbatim we'd probably touch the 50s at least one day mid stride through three days of thaw-like departures. 

Because of that continuity break, it's not very confidence inspiring.. 

I could see it going back to a further south frontal position.. Which would enter the possibility of cold surface/overrunning chances - but it's important to remember that beyond D6 carries the standard uncertainty so is conjecture.  

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That's the best the EPS has looked in a while....not talking weeklies...the actual ensembles. We've gotten slaughtered by the dealer in a high count so far, but no choice but to keep throwing the chips down....pattern is going to be favorable.

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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's the best the EPS has looked in a while....not talking weeklies...the actual ensembles. We've gotten slaughtered by the dealer in a high count so far, but no choice but to keep throwing the chips down....pattern is going to be favorable.

Not a year to double down though even on 11.  But we pray for wins

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's the best the EPS has looked in a while....not talking weeklies...the actual ensembles. We've gotten slaughtered by the dealer in a high count so far, but no choice but to keep throwing the chips down....pattern is going to be favorable.

My seasonal numbers are likely by the boards, but I'll go to the grave thinking we are going to have a great stretch. I don't see how we get out of this season without it.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My seasonal numbers are likely by the boards, but I'll go to the grave thinking we are going to have a great stretch. I don't see how we get out of this season without it.

Yeah we could still easily have a 5-6 week rockin' stretch. I mean, 2nd week of Feb to mid-March could be very good...we don't know for sure. The ensembles want to really get good the 2nd week of Feb and if the NAO blocking actually sets up? Who knows....that tends to really produce some good ones late in the season. It would be funny if we went out with a Mar '01/Mar'18 type stretch after all this.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My seasonal numbers are likely by the boards, but I'll go to the grave thinking we are going to have a great stretch. I don't see how we get out of this season without it.

We are tossing the Debbies out into the Atlantic. Delayed not denied. I suspect  the days around my birthday on the 10th there will be lots of discussion of who gets the jack.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we could still easily have a 5-6 week rockin' stretch. I mean, 2nd week of Feb to mid-March could be very good...we don't know for sure. The ensembles want to really get good the 2nd week of Feb and if the NAO blocking actually sets up? Who knows....that tends to really produce some good ones late in the season. It would be funny if we went out with a Mar '01/Mar'18 type stretch after all this.

Hopefully we can net one big kahuna before Feb 20th...that's when my window ends. I forecasted 2 between 1/20 and 2/20.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully we can net one big kahuna before Feb 20th...that's when my window ends. I forecasted 2 between 1/20 and 2/20.

Well I think it's probably game-on Feb 7th onward...Can't even rule out overrunning before that, though today's runs were further north with that.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's the best the EPS has looked in a while....not talking weeklies...the actual ensembles. We've gotten slaughtered by the dealer in a high count so far, but no choice but to keep throwing the chips down....pattern is going to be favorable.

Whatever keeps hope alive I suppose. Perhaps the wavelength changes could help us later in Feb.  

That can sometimes counter a poor Pacific if the Atlantic is relatively favorable.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Never say never this season, but I think seeing blocking fall apart during Feb of a weak modoki is a long shot.

We shall see.

Hasn’t been modeled that long , wouldn’t be surprised either way.

looks like second week of February there will be some changes in tropical forcing that could bring about a change from this persistent Nina like circulation, ...I give blocking a “50/50” shot around the 13-15’th ...which is more likely then I’ve bought into this year but I’m not going higher than that at this time frame for this time till this is inside 7 days 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Hasn’t been modeled that long , wouldn’t be surprised either way.

looks like second week of February there will be some changes in tropical forcing that could bring about a change from this persistent Nina like circulation, ...I give blocking a “50/50” shot around the 13-15’th ...which is more likely then I’ve bought into this year but I’m not going higher than that at this time frame for this time till this is inside 7 days 

Fair post.

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4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Wow, looks like BDL is only 5" below normal snowfall to-date?

All this futility talk and they are one advisory event away from normal snowfall right now?  But I guess that's sort of what happens when half of that snow falls in November and then nothing really happens for two months.

But BDL could easily still easily finish with above normal snowfall if they are only 5" off the normal pace right now and a couple good events occur in Feb/Mar.

Agree 100%....I can think of a couple 80's winters who were worse for ct valley snow weenies already...this winter will wind up ok

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan’s got 30’s and wintry mix next Thursday and Friday 

Well that is a separate system. The D9-10 system. Euro jackpotted scooter on that one. I was talking about before that. There was an icing sig yesterday on the Tues/We'd system. Now it's showing up as a cutter. But still could trend back given the amount of cold air lurking. 

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