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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not the southern part of that area, Most when they see NNE, They associate the whole area having a banner winter.

Yeah, but despite being up north in latitude, even your area probably corresponds much closer to SNE snow climo than that of interior NNE (i.e. 50+ miles from the coast or into the mountainous topography)...just based on how east coast storms track.

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well... that's just at a glance...   

looking at particulars that's probably snow going over to everything from ZR to PL to those aggregated noodle bombs as though parachutes were just to big to fully melt...  

those kinda 'ktichen sink' events can be fun too though...  again, preference here is for activity ... don't care to pine over what that is.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still think we could have a very nice stretch, but I've spent the whole second half with my foot in my mouth, so just gotta wait and see, at this point. 

I still think Nature likes averages.... some decent events are bound to happen.  SNE isn't the mid-Atlantic climo.  There have to be some all snow 6-12 inchers at some point.  Even if it's not above average a bunch of spots could easily add 20-30" in 2-3 events over a couple week period.

Something will break right at some point is still playing the odds.  

Same thing up here... BTV isn't getting 150" of snow with the mountains at 400+ so the pace will slow down.  Gotta play the odds.

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40 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Same thing up here... BTV isn't getting 150" of snow with the mountains at 400+ so the pace will slow down.  Gotta play the odds.

Are there any resources for data on annual snowfall at Mt. Mansfield and the Burlington area?  I was able to find this.

https://waw.w3.uvm.edu//skivt-l/?Page=mansel.php

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's the EPS mean for next week's threat. It has definitely become more tame off to the west with the primary. That will obviously be important for a snowier solution.

 

 

Feb7_12zEPS.png

As it is right now that's a pretty good look. Let's try to keep it lol

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37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's the EPS mean for next week's threat. It has definitely become more tame off to the west with the primary. That will obviously be important for a snowier solution.

 

 

Feb7_12zEPS.png

But look what's going on with that whole pan-wide construct...  

Granted ...the other models did trend ...for lack of better expression, 'more optimistic' too, but they're all trying to do the same thing in my estimation - stretching the field into the longitudinal coordinate anomalously far. 

I think one way to correct for that look might be to make the wave its self weaker - which may be happening anyway, because as you've noted ...the primary is less torqued up ..  interesting.  

Can seem to buy a western ridge like ...on land this year, huh

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Not the southern part of that area, Most when they see NNE, They associate the whole area having a banner winter.

I think the southern parts of VT/NH/ME are running close to average for snow, while the northern parts are on a near record pace.  Time for our snowiest month (on average) to step up to the plate.

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20 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Are there any resources for data on annual snowfall at Mt. Mansfield and the Burlington area?  I was able to find this.

https://waw.w3.uvm.edu//skivt-l/?Page=mansel.php

The Mansfield snowfall is very inconsistent and the collection method was not very good....but then again measuring snow above treeline on windswept rocks is a tough thing to do.  The snow depth stake is in a different location at a lower elevation below the treeline.  

BTV has a list on their website of monthly snowfall since 1880 but I don't have the link readily available.

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27 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I think the southern parts of VT/NH/ME are running close to average for snow, while the northern parts are on a near record pace.  Time for our snowiest month (on average) to step up to the plate.

I'm 2 mi from the NH border, at the same latitude as KASH, and its nowhere nesr normal.

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