CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, JBinStoughton said: I wouldn’t imagine anything at this point lol Uncle Leo is getting desperate. I wonder how angry he is about dry humping the strat warming twitter folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Mm... nope. there's nothing "gradual" about that undercut cool-down in the operational Euro if that's the source being used... 00z Wed (Tues eve) has a drilling surface drain underway, and one arriving off a nascent polar-arctic arm of high pressure and a snow pack ... Applying a very justifiable correction for that synopsis (considering also the resolution at this time range) the sounding of the time would be highly negatively sloped. Temperatures Titanic across the entire SNE region. I bet it's 38 F in southern NH around 7pm after a high of 52 or 54 earlier that afternoon, ...heading for the upper 20s by 06z Wednesday morning ... with 0 ability to rise during the ensuing 24 hours. That cinema is an easy draft given the synoptics. Now ... change these synoptic features and their evolution, okay... But as is... no - that's solid cold llv correction occurring with a bit of rapidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Euro MJO looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Euro MJO looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That’s as good as it has looked on months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Hope springs eternal on the weatherboards. Personally, I think we will get slammed hard a few times in Feb/March with at least one period extended period (2 weeks+) of 24 hour below freezing temps in the interior of SNE. Time is running short. But hope springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Hope springs eternal on the weatherboards. Personally, I think we will get slammed hard a few times in Feb/March with at least one period extended period (2 weeks+) of 24 hour below freezing temps in the interior of SNE. Time is running short. But hope springs. Agreed. Hopefully a good 3 week stretch like 2015/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 29 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s as good as it has looked on months. Agreed. EURO and CFS look great. GEFS delayed and JMA horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 The GEFS are very weenie in the 11-15 day. EPS started to get the -NAO going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: The GEFS are very weenie in the 11-15 day. EPS started to get the -NAO going. Easily the strongest NAO sig yet on the 12z GEFS. EPS was starting to do it too as you said...we gotta get it inside D10 obviously. We're getting some ridging there in the nearer term at least, so at least we're not trying to remove a block hole from Greenland...the antecedent environment isn't that hostile to a block forming, so I have a little bit more optimism than usual on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I don’t see a -NAO Being Established to the middle (Feb 12-14) at earliest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The GEFS are very weenie in the 11-15 day. EPS started to get the -NAO going. Hopefully my pattern is delayed and not denied. I'm ready to write pickles the check, at this point...but I just want to enjoy some nice snow, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Easily the strongest NAO sig yet on the 12z GEFS. EPS was starting to do it too as you said...we gotta get it inside D10 obviously. We're getting some ridging there in the nearer term at least, so at least we're not trying to remove a block hole from Greenland...the antecedent environment isn't that hostile to a block forming, so I have a little bit more optimism than usual on it. 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully my pattern is delayed and not denied. I'm ready to write pickles the check, at this point...but I just want to enjoy some nice snow, regardless. Yeah it's the first time my eye brows sort of raised on this. I agree..want to see it inside day 10...but at least it has some characteristics of not being voodoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully my pattern is delayed and not denied. I'm ready to write pickles the check, at this point...but I just want to enjoy some nice snow, regardless. Check? Let your bitterness take over and pay him in all pennies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully my pattern is delayed and not denied. I'm ready to write pickles the check, at this point...but I just want to enjoy some nice snow, regardless. February and March is still a long time worth of climo favored big snowstorms. It might not be 60+ inches at BOS but still seems a good chance that all this futility talk is going to be laughable come April 1st if even a couple 1-1.5" QPF snow events roll through SNE mixed in with light variety fare. Put up some 30-40" Feb/March/April SNE totals and it turns into a normal winter within a standard deviation probably, no? Might not even take that much. ORH is only 16" below normal right now. One good 1-1.5" QPF winter storm can wipe that out, so it'll take a couple to really catch up in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Wow, looks like BDL is only 5" below normal snowfall to-date? All this futility talk and they are one advisory event away from normal snowfall right now? But I guess that's sort of what happens when half of that snow falls in November and then nothing really happens for two months. But BDL could easily still easily finish with above normal snowfall if they are only 5" off the normal pace right now and a couple good events occur in Feb/Mar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Wow, looks like BDL is only 5" below normal snowfall to-date? All this futility talk and they are one advisory event away from normal snowfall right now? But I guess that's sort of what happens when half of that snow falls in November and then nothing really happens for two months. But BDL could easily still finish with above normal snowfall if they are only 5" off the normal pace right now. That's the official 30 year normal though. The new regime of the 2000s is higher...gotta adjust for the changing climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 It'll be fun when we wipe the 80s off the normals and 75% of winters become BN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Wow, looks like BDL is only 5" below normal snowfall to-date? All this futility talk and they are one advisory event away from normal snowfall right now? But I guess that's sort of what happens when half of that snow falls in November and then nothing really happens for two months. But BDL could easily still easily finish with above normal snowfall if they are only 5" off the normal pace right now and a couple good events occur in Feb/Mar. I wish I could move you to SNE and see how you adjust With a pattern this active nobody anticipates futility , at least I don’t beleive they do. They want it as a means of coping but it’s certainly not likely. I would love a epic period that gives Boston 80”. It’s just not happening . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: That's the official 30 year normal though. The new regime of the 2000s is higher...gotta adjust for the changing climate. Ah yeah I was just shocked to see how close to "normal" (whatever that is) it is listed on the climate reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I wish I could move you to SNE and see how you adjust With a pattern this active nobody anticipates futility , at least I don’t beleive they do. They want it as a means of coping but it’s certainly not likely. I would love a epic period that gives Boston 80”. It’s just not happening . I was a full blown weather weenie growing in Albany and then lived in BTV (local snow hole) for 6 years... I get it. I know exactly what it is... sort of like when someone shows a season total up here for some past winter that shows "near normal snow" but it doesn't show the flavor of the winter. Like even 2014-15...that was probably the most frustrating winter to get near normal snowfall, because of what was happening to points SE. Like if this winter ends with near normal snowfall at say BDL and ORH, on paper years later it won't show the full on sh*tshow that Dec/Jan were in the middle of winter. Like 2015-16, after a while I was glad it just never snowed so we could get the futility record. If it snowed 80" on the mountain in April 2016, sure it would be fun but years later it wouldn't show the horror show that was the actual winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 I truly don’t want futility . That’s a given. I want snow and i def want some coastals that I can take a weekend day for . Im heading up to Spruce lodge next weekend w a lady friend and I’m praying we get snowed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Nice coastal day 10 on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Nice coastal day 10 on the euro Delay it by 3-4 days. The WAR will hold longer as we tend to see. I think 2/12 on is when it gets going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Delay it by 3-4 days. The WAR will hold longer as we tend to see. I think 2/12 on is when it gets going Agreed that the period may become favorable after the 12-14’th. We shall see. Coin toss . Which is better odds than I’d have given the other faux changes modeled this year . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I truly don’t want futility . That’s a given. I want snow and i def want some coastals that I can take a weekend day for . Im heading up to Spruce lodge next weekend w a lady friend and I’m praying we get snowed in Is she in a nursing home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Uncle Leo is getting desperate. I wonder how angry he is about dry humping the strat warming twitter folks. Lol, at least there is coastal storms showing up in the LR. A lot better than a few days ago. A basin wide weak el Nino isn't working so I see no problem with a La Nina like pattern. As long as I can get some possible blizzards out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it's the first time my laptop sort of raised on this. I agree..want to see it inside day 10...but at least it has some characteristics of not being voodoo. There is still time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nice coastal day 10 on the euro Be out on the lookout for this particular date somebody might get slammed around that time frame strong support from the CMC as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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