jbenedet Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 12z Ukmet looks night and day vs 12z GFS at hr144. Much better look for us... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Anyone have the gfs para... the regular gfs is the worst model and is doing a crack thingy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Anyone have the gfs para... the regular gfs is the worst model and is doing a crack thingy Para is worse I’m afraid but they both are bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Para is worse I’m afraid but they both are bad. Well my day is ruined. When I don’t get snow I seriously get depressed. If there’s an impending snowstorm I’m the happiest person in my circle. It’s kinda annoying how we can’t get one storm to work for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 We continue to drive along a pattern that is alright for winter weather “enthusiasts “ and no bueno for for classic Nor’Easter’s Let’s not get carried away in either extreme 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: Well my day is ruined. When I don’t get snow I seriously get depressed. If there’s an impending snowstorm I’m the happiest person in my circle. It’s kinda annoying how we can’t get one storm to work for us The fv3 has a snowstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Well my day is ruined. When I don’t get snow I seriously get depressed. If there’s an impending snowstorm I’m the happiest person in my circle. It’s kinda annoying how we can’t get one storm to work for us Don’t let it ruin your day. Snow comes, snow goes, life goes on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Right.....and I wouldn't be basing my hopes on the GFS or any of it's Kids...The dysfunction in that family is Epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 This is another one of those two part storms where the first wave is important to how the second part tracks...i.e more confluence. Yesterday that first part was stronger which set the stage for the second one to take a more off shore track. Today on the gfs, the first wave is weaker, the second part is slower. Translation....cutter or hugger. I think we went through this not that long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The fv3 has a snowstorm... Quebec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, Hazey said: Quebec? For sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I don't care what phase the MJO is in, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that ++++AO and RNA doesn't not have a chapter in the Kocin book. Hope for mediocrity. The guidance is flux struggling to reconcile the storm idea with the SE ridge (+AO/RNA), and the end result is likely to be manageable. Love this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 hour ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS is really amped and west, looks like its going to try to morph this into a cutter this run as the HP retreats. That model has screamed "cutter!" for almost every event this season, except for Jan 20, which had so much cold support that even the GFS couldn't kick it to Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, tamarack said: That model has screamed "cutter!" for almost every event this season, except for Jan 20, which had so much cold support that even the GFS couldn't kick it to Detroit. GFS tried though...it kept trying to track it over ALB for a while and then when it finally caved on that idea it still tried for the ol' ORH track....of course, it actually tracked over the Outer Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I don't care what phase the MJO is in, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that ++++AO and RNA doesn't not have a chapter in the Kocin book. Hope for mediocrity. The guidance is flux struggling to reconcile the storm idea with the SE ridge (+AO/RNA), and the end result is likely to be manageable. It would be interesting to take the klotzbach mjo sne snowstorm paper and modulate it for the ao/nao sign. I could see a scenario where the phase 7/8 positive ao yields almost no increase and the negative ao phase 7/8 yields 30 percent. (Phase 7/8 yields 15 percent increase of 6 inch plus snowstorm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 24 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Well my day is ruined. When I don’t get snow I seriously get depressed. If there’s an impending snowstorm I’m the happiest person in my circle. It’s kinda annoying how we can’t get one storm to work for us You must be on antidepressants then living in the Bronx. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 FV3 is pretty funny.. 980mb low crossing central NJ at hour 177-180 or just north of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 very slow moving out on the fv3.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Uncle looks Interesting with a transfer near the mid Atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Euro is gonna be a snow/sleet/ZR mess this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Amped and warmer run incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Not bad for pike region. Decent front ender Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Snow to ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Man does this winter blow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Not bad for pike region. Decent front ender For 6-7 days out...it's still there in the same form. All we can say. SWFE of some variety. A classic Nor' Easter prob isn't happening in this setup so looking for one will end in disappointment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 You know that feeling when you’re playing 5x5 basketball with your homies and there’s that one guy on your team who’s one move is to shoot, has no concept of anything else...you know when the ball gets to him he chucks up long distance 3’s brick after brick, but he just won’t stop. That’s the feeling I get looking at models this winter S of Pike. BRICK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You know that feeling when you’re playing 5x5 basketball with your homies and there’s that one guy on your team who’s one move is to shoot...you know when the ball gets to him he chucks up long distance 3’s brick after brick, but won’t stop. That’s looking at models this winter S of Pike. BRICK. Take that brick and throw it at my head. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Lol...scooter bought the prior gfs runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Lol...scooter bought the prior gfs runs... Only another couple runs before the euro turns this into a cutter with some slop on the front end, if we ‘lucky’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Lol...scooter bought the prior gfs runs... whatever the solution to dump on the collective heads of winter enthusiasts is what I buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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