Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 I give it 50/50 chance of moving toward nothing... ----- Re the MJO "favorable" narrative... WRONG! The AO is prognosticated by every source to soar to +4 SD spanning some 2 ...2 and half weeks. The MJO late phase 7-8-1 are correlated to -AO Those two facets offset one another ...i.e, that is anti-correlated. Which means ... the hemisphere is out of sync above the MJO's input/dispersion ... and that means the MJO's influence is thus more likely damping out. I suspect the Euro's camp is closer to correct with that wave propagation in terms of overall amplitude - less the details of the weird inflections in the curve. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 mood flakes on Monday according to GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I give it 50/50 chance of moving toward nothing... ----- Re the MJO "favorable" narrative... WRONG! The AO is prognosticated by every source to soar to +4 SD spanning some 2 ...2 and half weeks. The MJO late phase 7-8-1 are correlated to -AO Those two facets offset one another ...i.e, that is anti-correlated. Which means ... the hemisphere is out of sync above the MJO's input/dispersion ... and that means the MJO's influence is thus more likely damping out. I suspect the Euro's camp is closer to correct with that wave propagation in terms of overall amplitude - less the details of the weird inflections in the curve. Yea, I don't care what phase the MJO is in, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that ++++AO and RNA doesn't not have a chapter in the Kocin book. Hope for mediocrity. The guidance is flux struggling to reconcile the storm idea with the SE ridge (+AO/RNA), and the end result is likely to be manageable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I don't care what phase the MJO is in, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that ++++AO and RNA doesn't not have a chapter in the Kocin book. Hope for mediocrity. And some how next week will find a way to snow in the Mid Atlantic leaving us with Monday's dustings and a few days of frigid air...only to repeat a few days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So now overcompensate.... Its a factor that can enhance or mitigate the likelihood of a major winter storm, but it doesn't operate in a vacuum. The pattern doesn't looks great to me, it looks okay. At this point there's nothing wrong with OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Just now, DavisStraight said: At this point there's nothing wrong with OK. Yes...I would take 6-12" and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 12z GFS is really amped and west, looks like its going to try to morph this into a cutter this run as the HP retreats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I give it 50/50 chance of moving toward nothing... ----- Re the MJO "favorable" narrative... WRONG! The AO is prognosticated by every source to soar to +4 SD spanning some 2 ...2 and half weeks. The MJO late phase 7-8-1 are correlated to -AO Those two facets offset one another ...i.e, that is anti-correlated. Which means ... the hemisphere is out of sync above the MJO's input/dispersion ... and that means the MJO's influence is thus more likely damping out. I suspect the Euro's camp is closer to correct with that wave propagation in terms of overall amplitude - less the details of the weird inflections in the curve. Interesting...Curious—can you explain that -AO relationship at all? To my mind based on the T anomaly relationship to phase 8, phase 8 tends to correspond with a -NAO; not a -AO. This would also better align with the forecasted teleconnections. As a separate matter entirely, I’m beginning to think of all the teleconnections a -AO could be the most overvalued for our region of snowlovers. The tendency often appears to send the best cold to our west—the Central Plains—particularly when it coincides with a less negative NAO/positive NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Well the GFS for next week is what this winter has been, snows in the south but the timing allows for us to either whiff or rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 TGID7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: Well the GFS for next week is what this winter has been, snows in the south but the timing allows for us to either whiff or rain... I've been wishing it over for about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I've been wishing it over for about a week. and somehow at 162 hours, the GFS will nail the forecast....This winter can't end soon enough, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 12z GFS illustrates pretty well —to me anyway—what happens to next week if we have a -AO and a positive (or less -NAO)... Fortunately the modeled teleconnections (& the GEFS/EPS) are not reflecting that outcome at the moment so I suspect it’s an off run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Interesting...Curious—can you explain that -AO relationship at all? To my mind based on the T anomaly relationship to phase 8, phase 8 tends to correspond with a -NAO; not a -AO. This would also better align with the forecasted teleconnections. As a separate matter entirely, I’m beginning to think of all the teleconnections a -AO could be the most overvalued for our region of snowlovers. The tendency often appears to send the best cold to our west—the Central Plains—particularly when it coincides with a less negative NAO/positive NAO. Firstly keep in mind ... the AO and NAO overlap domain space. One cannot logically disconnect them entirely ...wrt to phase correlations. So, saying "...-NAO; not a -AO" can't be correct. Secondly, the correlation with the MJO to the hemisphere is a hemispheric scope and scale - like ...not trying to be a condescending douche, but the arctic oscillation domain space umbrellas the whole rampart above the 60th parallel... The MJO may in face effect in quadrature because it's a wave ... and therefore has an effective up-down coordinate with it... It also depends upon the AO orientation, too... It's never unilaterally influencing when in negataive(postiive) modes. So, the true relationship between the MJO and AO is a fluid one in time...and is never 1::1 because of all these moving pieces... The totality of the MJO correlation with the AO is papered... I can't dig it up here but maybe later I'll find it.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Lol. I expected next weeks storm to crap the bed but I thought it would atleast string weenies along for another day or two. That morphed to a rains to Hudson Bay at record speed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 You know the forum has become unhinged when a 162 hour OP GFS solution drives the narrative on a storm threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Nice GFS shift.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 To be fair....we all didn't think the GFS was going to keep the 10-18 inches in there for very long, did we???? The model is Shit...and can't get out of it's own way...and 7 days out it's doing just what one would expect it to...which is Flip Flop back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Well there is the Canadian to pin your hopes and dreams on...lol....for the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hazey said: Well there is the Canadian to pin your hopes and dreams on...lol....for the moment Or UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Wait and see approach until the weekend. Until then, it’s just eye candy or an eye sore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Wait and see approach until the weekend. Until then, it’s just eye candy or an eye sore. Exactly. But the Snakebitten mentality is overtaking the boards' normally decent instincts unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You know the forum has become unhinged when a 162 hour OP GFS solution drives the narrative on a storm threat. Sorry, meant it more as a chuckle than as a Debbie.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Wait and see approach until the weekend. Until then, it’s just eye candy or an eye sore. I'll start to care when we are under 96 hours out. Could rain, could snow or could be sunny and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: Nice GFS shift.... Whats 1,500 mi in 3 runs.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 First look—Taking guidance consensus, with teleconnections and MJO (painting with a broad brush here, so bear with me) but how I envision early next week to play out is with most of the CONUS to be N/AN, with slightly BN over the northeast. More troughing in the west, but UL flow largely zonal. Overlay this disturbance and my guess is this one can work out well for most. Chances increase with latitude ...Confidence low... That said, *if* we consistently see more low level cold in the Northern/Central plains we are easily torched...As I said before though, I don’t think this is the case...Doesn’t fit the big picture imo... Wait and see...still a ways to go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 12z GEFS much more wintry than OP for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You know the forum has become unhinged when a 162 hour OP GFS solution drives the narrative on a storm threat. Doesn't change my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You know the forum has become unhinged when a 162 hour OP GFS solution drives the narrative on a storm threat. Last night the posts were about how epic it looked on the GFS, today's posts are now about how non-epic it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Last night the posts were about how epic it looked on the GFS, today's posts are now about how non-epic it looks. Box of chocolates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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