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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Has some good synoptics going for it...the high position especially. But there's also a few negatives...SE ridge will limit the amount the trough can dig for oil....but hopefully we still have some good discussion 3-4 days from now.

 

 

Feb5_12zEPS168.png

Yup... this was my target for the day ... a semblance of a nod from the EPS toward the oper more amped look... That's definitely an nod- but an important one for actually getting it done...

Lots of time and peregrinations to go through but not a bad table set for D7 - considering... that's good for any ensemble mean to have the coherency in structure at this range.

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where we had 4-7” in SNE . Last Tuesday night 

Ah yeah.  I was confused about what you meant trend north because as it is the EURO has it track over SE New England.

The EURO was plenty north and you don't want that any more north.... just interested in why you'd want this to trend further north.

Bu5L1dF.png

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8 hours ago, CarLover014 said:

I want to know how that happened, and if it's pretty common. Mesmerizing to watch.

Yeah I hear ya ...  Any thing that swirls, right -

Ah that's commonly referred to as a Fuji Wara effect, named after the scientist that first identified that phenomenon of a two distinct cyclones locked inside the same general ambit of lower pressure/larger cyclonic circumvallate ...  Usually given enough time, one will become dominant ...usually by gobbling up the potential vorticity feeding the general system ...and then the other gets absorbed as an echo rotation ... vanishing.    The exception in using this definition is that Fuji's model was concerning Tropical Cyclones I believe ...but the phenomenon is extendable to other atmospheric events ... that time sensitive loop now gone being one such occurrence.  

In this case, I'd surmise the anchoring low pressure is probably in the 700 mb level

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I hear ya ...  Any thing that swirls, right -

Ah that's commonly referred to as a Fuji Wara effect, named after the scientist that first identified that phenomenon of a two distinct cyclones locked inside the same general ambit of lower pressure/larger cyclonic circumbrium ...  Usually given enough time, one will become dominant ...usually be gobbling up the potential vorticity feeding the general system ...and then the other gets absorbed as an echo rotation ... vanishing.    The exception in using this definition is that Fuji's model was concerning Tropical Cyclones I believe ...but the phenomenon is extendable to other atmospheric events ... that time sensitive loop now gone being one such occurrence.  

In this case, I'd surmise the anchoring low pressure is probably in the 700 mb level

Thanks.

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ah yeah.  I was confused about what you meant trend north because as it is the EURO has it track over SE New England.

The EURO was plenty north and you don't want that any more north.... just interested in why you'd want this to trend further north.

Bu5L1dF.png

I wouldn’t . I think it could with the SE ridge 

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7 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I know I’m echoing JB but 2/11 sure does look like 2/8/94.  The Euro is pretty weak sauce on the overrunning right now but the setup is nearly identical 

I buy it, really loving the slow progression through phase 8 on the EPS. It's pretty ideal for mid-late Feb.

I'm quite optimistic that the snow threats will return and I wouldn't be shocked to see models trend more south overtime.

Do not think the overly amped, cutting solutions will verify. 

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I buy it, really loving the slow progression through phase 8 on the EPS. It's pretty ideal for mid-late Feb.

I'm quite optimistic that the snow threats will return and I wouldn't be shocked to see models trend more south overtime.

Do not think the overly amped, cutting solutions will verify. 

Wow...you’re usually quite pessimistic.  I’m liking your optimism lol. 

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15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I buy it, really loving the slow progression through phase 8 on the EPS. It's pretty ideal for mid-late Feb.

I'm quite optimistic that the snow threats will return and I wouldn't be shocked to see models trend more south overtime.

Do not think the overly amped, cutting solutions will verify. 

My main concern is the se ridge poking up enough to increase the gradient and make a sloppier/delayed phase more likely.

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