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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I miss the days when this board was actually readable and worth scrolling through.  A few pellets and a cutter isn't my definition of "very wintry".  My morning lows below 0 last week are more wintry to me.

It still is if you ignore some and take others with grain of salt. I don’t see this being a ‘very good’ period coming up but that doesn’t fly with the Snow Humpers so they do their best to counter reality.

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It still is if you ignore some and take others with grain of salt. I don’t see this being a ‘very good’ period coming up but that doesn’t fly with the Snow Humpers so they do their best to counter reality.

How Is this not going to be a good pattern ? This upcoming pattern will be the best we had all winter with a strong negative Epo.

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

How Is this not going to be a good pattern ? This upcoming pattern will be the best we had all winter with a strong negative Epo.

I don’t know if you can say it’s good, especially for NYC and south. Even for here I’m not sure it’s good. Winter is pretty much showing it’s face. Just hope for a few storms at this point. 

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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It still is if you ignore some and take others with grain of salt. I don’t see this being a ‘very good’ period coming up but that doesn’t fly with the Snow Humpers so they do their best to counter reality.

I’m reading “good” within the context of our sensible weather this entire season, last week notwithstanding.

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know if you can say it’s good, especially for NYC and south. Even for here I’m not sure it’s good. Winter is pretty much showing it’s face. Just hope for a few storms at this point. 

We koolaid

sometimes I wonder if people staring at the EPS 10-14 days out throughout the winter forgot that pattern hasn’t arrived this year , it degrades in the 7-10 day period 

hows the N Atlantic look on the EPS....

yes we have chances in active pattern ...well timed Quebec highs and maybe a random 50/50 will help us later this month 

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43 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I miss the days when this board was actually readable and worth scrolling through.  A few pellets and a cutter isn't my definition of "very wintry".  My morning lows below 0 last week are more wintry to me.

Ditto at times ... but, in this case... I think others may be referring to that wonder bomb on the D7.5/9 operational Euro, wrt to that "interesting next week" stuff.  

That said, there has been some off and on support among the GEFs members - not that you asked...  But, I do like it when there is "cross-guidance" suggestion - when somewhat disparate physical methods arrive upon a similar destination ... usually a clad argument for some sort of physical presence in the flow actually being real and not some mere computer enhanced fractal bullshit.  

Then of course .. the 00z GEFs members pretty much unilaterally abandoned that same Miller B bomb idea that a few carried at 12z...   but that could be construed as normal for the extended just the same.

Obviously we are willing to give all models a pass on D7-10 anything... But, that period of time might be worth a look over the shoulder in future cycles.  Just sayn' .. actually the 18z para-useful GFS version had it too.. 

No sense in languishing over run details off any guidance this far out...but as is, that's pretty much the perfect set up - which should bother "irresponsible impulse hope" folks for that aspect alone.  Not many perfections, at this range, really ever successfully polish to within 50% of their original panache. 

But ...suppose for a second it did out of morbid curiosity and entertaining writing  ... To me that looks like somewhere in the neighborhood of a 12 to 15" overrunning instability burst. Ideally so actually, with GW infused theta-e anomaly running up 90 degrees normal to the isentropes at some 40+ kts in the 700 mb level.  May as well detonate a hydrogen cryo bomb inside the SGZ.  Good for 1/16th of a mile visibility suffocation, and as that attenuates and the secondary implodes S of LI ... a meso-scratched CCB with lightning flashes explodes over the area for another 12 to 15" ... Whole system .. 'bout 30 hours to play out.  

Ha... if something like that happened, most sites would be at their seasonal norm I suppose ...if not above ... exposing the lack in intellectual accountability and state of controlled neurosis of this model dystopian lusty pass-time in a lot of ways..  Which, this is what it's about really ... Your distaste, I suspect, is really an eye-rolling that.  :)  As an aside, if the models gave us a steady diet of these types of appeals ...that would probably air out half if not more of the malcontent/unreadability that hangs over these thread spaces like the stench in the asylum. 

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7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

He definitely doesn’t need to produce anything at work...

It's 8 o-clock... 

I have the highest utilization numbers on my team... I also can produce those op ed  'fun-writes' in about 5 minutes too  ;)  yeah, I come in early to have some free space -

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3 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

Was just going to post the same. I usually hang back and observe, but this time I’m with Kevin. I’m cautiously optimistic that in a week’s time or so we’ll all be much happier with this winter.

These weenies this morning that have bailed on winter and thought yesterday and today’s weather meant early spring had arrived are going to be shocked next week when they’re digging out from a couple snowfalls. 

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ditto at times ... but, in this case... I think others may be referring to that wonder bomb on the D7.5/9 operational Euro, wrt to that "interesting next week" stuff.  

That said, there has been some off and on support among the GEFs members - not that you asked...  But, I do like it when there is "cross-guidance" suggestion - when somewhat disparate physical methods arrive upon a similar destination ... usually a clad argument for some sort of physical presence in the flow actually being real and not some mere computer enhanced fractal bullshit.  

Then of course .. the 00z GEFs members pretty much unilaterally abandoned that same Miller B bomb idea that a few carried at 12z...   but that could be construed as normal for the extended just the same.

Obviously we are willing to give all models a pass on D7-10 anything... But, that period of time might be worth a look over the shoulder in future cycles.  Just sayn' .. actually the 18z para-useful GFS version had it too.. 

No sense in languishing over run details off any guidance this far out...but as is, that's pretty much the perfect set up - which should bother "irresponsible impulse hope" folks for that aspect alone.  Not many perfections, at this range, really polish in reality to even 50% of the original panache. 

But ...suppose for a second it did out of morbid curiosity and entertaining writing  ... To me that looks like somewhere in the neighborhood of a 12 to 15" overrunning instability burst. Ideally so actually, with GW infused theta-e anomaly running up 90 degrees normal to the isentropes at some 35 to 45 kts at 700 mb level.  May as well detonate a hydrogen cryo bomb inside the SGZ.  Good for 1/16th of a mile visibility suffocation, and as that attenuates and the secondary implodes S of LI ... and a CCB that's scratched with lightning flashing meso bands explodes over the area for another 12 to 15" ... Whole system .. 'bout 30 hours to play out.  

Ha... if something like that happened, most sites would be at their seasonal norm I suppose ...if not above ... exposing the lack in intellectual accountability and state of controlled neurosis of this model dystopian lusty pass-time..  Which, this is what it's about really ... Your distaste, I suspect, is really an eye-rolling that.  :)  As an aside, if the models gave us a steady diet of these types of appeals ...that would probably air out half if not more of the malcontent/unreadability that hangs over these thread spaces like the stench in the asylum. 

Long range OP Euro caught my eye, but this point, I don't expect a damn thing.

If comes to pass, great.....all bets are off, though. (figure of speech, pickles....no worries)

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What cutter ? :lol: Dudes in for a damaging icestorm talking about a sleet pellet and cutter. That’s unreadable 

There is no damaging ice storm for most of CT.  Up by Worcester and maybe up in your hood at 1000ft perhaps some accretion...but damaging is another embellishment by you like always.   And you have indeed said what Scooter pointed out about entering a wintry time...and it's been about 4 times like he stated.   Remember the "No more Cutters statement from about 10-14 days ago????   How'd that workout for you??  

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25 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

Very off-topic question here, but could someone explain what this is on satellite?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Bermuda-07-200-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

What do you wanna know ...  ? 

I mean clearly there are two neutron stars revolving around a common center of mass in an ~ 10,000 year decaying orbital lock. Eventually they will coalesce... probably with a supernova nova ... followed by the clear signature of black hole.  

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What do you wanna know ...  ? 

I mean clearly there are two neutron stars revolving around a common center of mass in an ~ 10,000 year decaying orbital lock. Eventually they will coalesce... probably with a supernova nova ... followed by the clear signature of black hole.  

I want to know how that happened, and if it's pretty common. Mesmerizing to watch.

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