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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Will and I have been covering the ice potential for days ... :unsure: wtf -

Boy, that GFS para run at 18z was a dream wave...  God I love those waves that break that way.. The beauty of that whole evolution is that the flow over Florida and adjacent areas is actually relaxed/compressible ... probably the first time this year I've personally seen that... There's no inhibition on that wave. It's only D7/8 too ... ha! only ... Still, better than a D10er

We know. So has Kevin...lol. I think he meant in the general public

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM has a pellet-fest around here up to into S NH at least for a while...that's a pretty deep cold layer. Closer to what the GFS showed. 18z Euro trended colder too but not as cold as NAM.

I wonder how much QPF this thing can produce. Seems pretty nasty around here. 

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2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We know. So has Kevin...lol. I think he meant in the general public

Will has but there are like 50 posters who are affected and all they do is whine about the lack of snow. Tip covers all bases so you never know what he is keen on or just another soliloquy 

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39 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I wonder how much QPF this thing can produce. Seems pretty nasty around here. 

Yeah some guidance is actually spitting out like 3 quarters of an inch in the first wave...while others are like 1/3rd to half that...not a lot of consistency. It def could be pretty ugly though if there's more than half an inch of QPF....even a 0.50-0.60 accretion efficiency would produce over a quarter inch of ice which can start to cause problems on limbs.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah some guidance is actually spitting out like 3 quarters of an inch in the first wave...while others are like 1/3rd to half that...not a lot of consistency. It def could be pretty ugly though if there's more than half an inch of QPF....even a 0.50-0.60 accretion efficiency would produce over a quarter inch of ice which can start to cause problems on limbs.

Is this a similar situation even down here like the last one? Most models had us getting well above freezing, but in the end 32.5 was all we could get to. We ended up with 30% of our town without power from that storm, prefer not to repeat that. I think we had about .4" accretion...

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5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Is this a similar situation even down here like the last one? Most models had us getting well above freezing, but in the end 32.5 was all we could get to. We ended up with 30% of our town without power from that storm, prefer not to repeat that. I think we had about .4" accretion...

I'm not sure how far south the ZR is going to get this time. The high setup isn't quite as favorable...as there are some lower pressures trying to protrude up toward upstate NY...and the antecedent airmass isn't as good. But....it's still a close call even there for a while. Could be nowcast type stuff. 

 

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6 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

Is this a similar situation even down here like the last one? Most models had us getting well above freezing, but in the end 32.5 was all we could get to. We ended up with 30% of our town without power from that storm, prefer not to repeat that. I think we had about .4" accretion...

It won’t. 

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39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It won’t. 

I agree, let's keep it warm until Friday...Hoping to go out on top the last few weeks of the winter. There is at least a glimmer of hope coming from the EURO and other pieces of guidance for next week. But we know how that has gone this year...

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