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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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Euro has a really strong cold tuck Thursday PM into evening for E MA. It's showing at like 34F but that could easily be 29-30F. Something to watch.

It does have some icing for Wednesday night/early Thursday over the interior of MA and N CT. 

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26 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Lol

 

Thing is ... the recent negative AO did time reasonably well with the SSW lag correlation ... when looking at the other years with the SSW --> leading AO response. 

Not sure why she's [apparently] not connecting the dots there... but (SSW + 30 days) lends to the recent 10 days of neggie AO just fine.. 

It's funny someone brought this up.  I was thinking about writing about this, this morning .. on a day actually still inside the temporal bounds of said -AO ...where the 55+ temperatures and spring like crocus weather abounds ... (ironically), that the +AO out there really appears to be a hemispheric "slosh" back now that the forcing is actually on the other side of an AO response and is attenuating ...

But, you know - conjecture is conjecture.  I just don't personally see anything amiss...  We had an SSW...  some weeks later, we had a -AO...  embedded in which there was a historic or near historic cold wave..  

I suspect there are assumptions/expectations being made as to the longevity of forcing and probably ... I mean there's multiple reasons why either that, and any magnitude of cold delivery to middle latitudes (and where for that matter) ... have other factors contributing and/or offsetting.  It's not like "SSW ... oh my god!" every year...  She's a doctorate ... one would assume that when she's not fielding questions for hoi polloi and/or charlatans ...she prooobably has a broader pallet of awareness in said matters.  There's that too -

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro has a really strong cold tuck Thursday PM into evening for E MA. It's showing at like 34F but that could easily be 29-30F. Something to watch.

It does have some icing for Wednesday night/early Thursday over the interior of MA and N CT. 

NWS has freezing rain here on Wednesday night.

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29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

More confused than Goff?

Nah. No one is that confused lol. Amy is good...not a hypster like judah. It just speaks to our general lack of knowledge on the subject and a perfectly hilarious metaphor that everyones' winter hopes and dreams ended up manifested in a non-stormy 10 day negative ao period. 

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46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro has a really strong cold tuck Thursday PM into evening for E MA. It's showing at like 34F but that could easily be 29-30F. Something to watch.

It does have some icing for Wednesday night/early Thursday over the interior of MA and N CT. 

I'm liking the uptick in amplitude of the D7.5 ejection out of the west/S of ORD there... 

Regardless of the "winter ending index" doom and clatter abounding the e-wave memes of the day ... that may be true but that system has been off and on in the GEFs fwiw -

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hmm ...that's an interesting question - 

Firstly, the pattern changed to a snowier one.   The problem?  It just didn't snow. 

While not necessarily intended to point at you, per se... I have noticed a tendency to conflate the weather people want to see in the models, with the pattern ...which is understandable, but unfortunately there's more to it and there is a disconnect there.  

The pattern doesn't dictate whether it actually storms or not. The pattern only indicates favorable regimes.   It may be hard to for some to really grasp or understand what that means... but, think of it this way ... with a superior organization, an NFL football team is in a better probability for winning on any given Sunday. But, that doesn't guarantee a win.

Same here...  When the pattern changed after the December debacle ... it changed for the better, but your team still lost.  It just didn't snow in a pattern that had ample ingredients supplied to make that happen.  So the cause for why it did not actually "do" x-y-z exists elsewhere.  

To that...I don't know what to say or add. We can be adult about that... or we can kick and scream and flop like five year-olds (proverbially speaking) because we're not getting what we want - which is a metaphor for the impatience and vitriol that happens among the neurotic usership of this site - haha.

Anyway, the pattern this week ...not so much ...no. But this is a well-advertized thaw that's merely going according to plan.  A pattern that is likelier to produce events more in sync with winter enthusiasts is out there... oh, D7 to 10 ... but it's really more like "returning,"  ...which again, following from this logic, doesn't not mean it will produce.  

 

Thanks Tip. I am still a neophyte when it comes to meteorology. I get the 850 and 925 bit when a storm turns to rain or freezing rain or sleet, but when it comes to looking at the MJO and other charts I'm lost. Basically, we had a good pattern for snow, but the storms just didn't happen. Sometimes the opposite happens. I get that. Plain and simple.

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