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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

You obviously need more perfectly aligned conditions for the later season events. Preferably nocturnal, otherwise very cold air masses. 

Almost every event I listed was most notable at night. Hell even the December 2008 storm was mostly nocturnal for the biggest accretion. 

 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS aren't backing down on the EPO ridge. More like doubling down. Lots of Arctic blasts with that look. GEFS are still not agreeing but they have been caving on the 06z and 12z cycles. 

Not much question in my mind that EPS is right...but are still gonna need some breaks without any PNA and not much NAO.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not much question in my mind that EPS is right...but are still gonna need some breaks without any PNA and not much NAO.

I mean...it's weird that we're so reflexively defensive all of the sudden...but this is the classic pattern where we would say "this is gonna give us a ton of chances but gotta watch for a cutter mixed in"...and usually everyone ignores the cutter aspect. But now it's all we focus on, lol. Tells us that we haven't exactly been getting a February 2014 (if you recall, that was pure EPO and no NAO help and No real PNA ridge, kind of neutral). 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean...it's weird that we're so reflexively defensive all of the sudden...but this is the classic pattern where we would say "this is gonna give us a ton of chances but gotta watch for a cutter mixed in"...and usually everyone ignores the cutter aspect. But now it's all we focus on, lol. Tells us that we haven't exactly been getting a February 2014 (if you recall, that was pure EPO and no NAO help and No real PNA ridge, kind of neutral). 

Feb 2014 was pretty lame imo...no huge events.

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9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Im seeing more atlantic/se ridge poking from the south though. 

 

Yeah it's been trying to show that a little more but I'm pretty skeptical of much on that front and not sure how useful it will be if it stays mostly in the Norwegian Sea. We can do pretty well if a powerful block forms near Iceland even, but it seems it keeps wanting to show some ridging poking back and it ends up weaker than advertised by the time we get near verification. But we'll see, there's some more background signal for -NAO with the tropical forcing we will be going into so perhaps this one will get a little boost there and that's all it needs. 

Edit: misread you...thought you said more -NAO ridging from south which there is. As for SE ridging. Yeah that's gonna be there as long as we have no PNA ridging and/or no Davis strait blocking. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's been trying to show that a little more but I'm pretty skeptical of much on that front and not sure how useful it will be if it stays mostly in the Norwegian Sea. We can do pretty well if a powerful block forms near Iceland even, but it seems it keeps wanting to show some ridging poking back and it ends up weaker than advertised by the time we get near verification. But we'll see, there's some more background signal for -NAO with the tropical forcing we will be going into so perhaps this one will get a little boost there and that's all it needs. 

It also has Feb nino climo going for it. 

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10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Under normal circumstances....as in before the past week or 2 we’d say that’s a weenie eps run.

Agreed. It honestly looks like Feb 1994...or maybe a cross between Feb '94 and Feb '14...but we're snakebit right now so all that people can think of is how it can go wrong but honestly, maybe that's good for some....for too long I feel as if only the positives have been focused on because things usually break our way the past 2 decades  

 

 

 

 

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