powderfreak Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 44 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: 59.8" for CAR in January alone (record for the month). Fell 0.1" short of tying Dec 1972 for snowiest month. BTV with almost 4 feet in January. 4th Snowiest January since the 1880s. The northern VT ski areas recorded 100" in January. Deepest snowpacks on record for January. This season might be the most bipolar across New England as is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 55 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Just have to be so freakin careful. Good grade school buddy of mine, an incredible skier, died in an avalanche out west few years back. They are definitely in that eerie, not sure if you’re gonna come home from your session, extreme danger levels with this latest storm. My brother lives in Reno and just sent me this. He and his son my nephew, grew up in Alaska and was friends with Tommy Moe. They helied in the Chugach range. My nephew just flew into Reno from SF and he will be headed up to Tahoe once the storm passes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Wow, that’s amazing man. Some serious ski pedigree there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Zero has to do with luck as was hashed out yesterday. The atmosphere shut us down to date . Not luck Your bait acts are so tired. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Wow, that’s amazing man. Some serious ski pedigree there I was supposed to go to Reno to stay with him and go to Tahoe this Feb but life has a way of getting in the way. Anyways another cold to rain to cold week, joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Its too bad we've had such a wet winter with normal temps, yet so little snow at this latitude...the return rate on that must be pretty low. I've actually been a bit too WARM with temps, yet bust, boom, bang on snowfall...tricky science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Man euro is pretty warm now too for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man euro is pretty warm now too for next week. Freezes ones balls off by the weekend...no poles too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Freezes ones balls off by the weekend...no poles too! We 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man euro is pretty warm now too for next week. I'll take it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Not even a cold rain on this new Euro ... well, not relative to season anyway - But it's removed all leading damming/CAD now ... You could tell it was up to it before even clicking the hour 96 panel, too. It just looked like it was paving the way up in eastern Canada ... But yeah, this run just lifts the warm front through with zippo taxation - right in... In fact, it's so clean that it may not even go through with much of anything - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Frankly.. I don't have a problem going with this solution. Barring the lesser likelihood of the Euro being wrong at D4 ... the D4 position of all features, doesn't extrapolated to a cold solution for us here ...when imagining D4 features another day or two into the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 The atmosphere has shut our day 6 imminent ice storms down to date. No luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Your bait acts are so tired. No bait . Just speaking the facts . Or at least what many folks believe. I don’t see luck having a thing to do with the weather. None . Of course others see it differently. That’s what makes the world go round . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 After this winter ... I hope we can get that look to set up in early May - it would be a nice courtesy wipe/reach around consolation if we can strafe the land with some tornadoes - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No bait . Just speaking the facts . Or at least what many folks believe. I don’t see luck having a thing to do with the weather. None . Of course others see it differently. That’s what makes the world go round . Okay. You think normal temps, well above normal precip and nearly unprecedentedly low snowfall at this latitude makes perfect sense. Fair enough...we disagree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: After this winter ... I hope we can get that look to set up in early May - it would be a nice courtesy wipe/reach around consolation if we can strafe the land with some tornadoes - haha Because of the shutdown it's possible our NWS snowfall contest and severe contest bleed into each other in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Euro looks icy to me 90-96 hours. It has sfc temps below frz over interior. Round 2 is like mid 30s but that could easily settle at 30F. We don't know. The soltuions of the last 24 hours though definitely don't quite get the cold push a strong after Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Any snow on the euro at the end of the run like the gfs and gfs para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay. You think normal temps, well above normal precip and nearly unprecedentedly low snowfall at this latitude makes perfect sense. Fair enough...we disagree. Well you’re talking about something completely different now. Sense vs luck. Luck didn’t give us lots of snow in similar patterns, just like it didnt deliver much snow so far this winter. It was simply the atmosphere being chaotic . That’s not luck... that’s science. I just don’t think now in our new warming climate that you can use analogs and expect a similar outcome to 30,40, 50 however many years ago. To me , things naturally shift north in this regime . That’s how I see it. But again that’s just my opinion . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well you’re talking about something completely different now. Sense vs luck. Luck didn’t give us lots of snow in similar patterns, just like it delivered little snow so far this winter. It was simply the atmosphere being chaotic . That’s not luck... that’s science. I just don’t think now in our new warming climate that you can use analogs and expect a similar outcome to 30,40, 50 however many years ago. To me , things naturally shift north in this regime . That’s how I see it. But again that’s just my opinion . Chaos is luck. New climate? The winter wasn't warm...anyway, the winter sucked. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Chaos is luck. New climate? The winter wasn't warm...anyway, the winter sucked. Agree It wasn’t warm no, but something shifted the storm track / gradient north. And it wasn’t bad luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It wasn’t warm no, but something shifted the storm track / gradient north. And it wasn’t bad luck It was lack of nao and pna. EPO too far west. Iow...wrong side of the gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It wasn’t warm no, but something shifted the storm track / gradient north. And it wasn’t bad luck An abundance of Milf hip thrusts and squats pumped up heights (latent heat release) in the east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 For the 1/21 icing didn't the models loose the CAD in the mid range and then came back as we got within 72hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Chaos and luck are being used synonymously here...it's the same thing. You don't have to get into a semantic battle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Yeah let's not rehash this again. Let's save it for one last gasp in April when Ray does his seasonal forecast grading 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Not to get into a mouth-breather debate about luck ... but, one could logically argue that part of the reason for the lack of winter storm performance has been the velocity saturation that has plagued most if not all the time since turning autumn into winter. Which ...btw, by 'velocity saturation' ... that's just field vernacular for too much fast wind speed in the ambient atmosphere. That is another form of destructive wave interference - an insidious one at that. Because it's not readily observable as being an inhibitor, but it it is... And, it's been prevalent the whole way. In fact, despite 2015...it's been prevalent since about 2001 ... some patterns and seasons more so than others, but ... more times than not, it's been there. But you see ...there are a lot of push and pull offsets occurring perpetually at all times. Although there's a disruptive/shearing aspect to fast flow ... a warming atmosphere overall means that the atmosphere physically can hold more theta-e, too. Thus, mix that with cold.. more snow can result at relatively less mechanical presence. That's an unavoidable circumstance, btw ... High temperature holds more water vapor. Winter storms are thus able to tap richer sources and snow more prolifically in the means ... if/when the atmospheric sources are being transported into the kinematics of a cold core cyclones. The secret? We are not warmed yet to the point where cold core no longer means snow. So, ... winters are warming, but in the interim, we "get to" experience snow more. Unless this year ...when systems are just getting smeared too much. Seriously, how many "bombs" have there been? We made it pretty damn far in time with exceptional temperature and DP gradients between southern Canada and the Texas with so little cyclogenesis. ...just one way to look at it all... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Zero bombs John Havent seen one decent coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Hopefully the gfs para is right. Shows us a good pattern coming up 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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