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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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44 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

59.8" for CAR in January alone (record for the month).

Fell 0.1" short of tying Dec 1972 for snowiest month.

BTV with almost 4 feet in January.

4th Snowiest January since the 1880s.  

The northern VT ski areas recorded 100" in January.  Deepest snowpacks on record for January.

This season might be the most bipolar across New England as is possible.

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55 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Just have to be so freakin careful. Good grade school buddy of mine, an incredible skier, died in an avalanche out west few years back. They are definitely in that eerie, not sure if you’re gonna come home from your session, extreme danger levels with this latest storm. 

My brother lives in Reno and just sent me this. He and his son  my nephew, grew up in Alaska and was friends with Tommy Moe. They helied in the Chugach range. My nephew just flew into Reno from SF and he will be headed up to Tahoe once the storm passes

2675.jpeg

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Not even a cold rain on this new Euro ... well, not relative to season anyway -

But it's removed all leading damming/CAD now ... You could tell it was up to it before even clicking the hour 96 panel, too.  It just looked like it was paving the way up in eastern Canada ... But yeah, this run just lifts the warm front through with zippo taxation - right in... In fact, it's so clean that it may not even go through with much of anything -

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Frankly.. I don't have a problem going with this solution.

Barring the lesser likelihood of the Euro being wrong at D4 ... the D4 position of all features, doesn't extrapolated to a cold solution for us here ...when imagining D4 features another day or two into the future.

 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No bait . Just speaking the facts . Or at least what many folks believe. I don’t see luck having a thing to do with the weather. None . Of course others see it differently. That’s what makes the world go round . 

Okay. You think normal temps, well above normal precip and nearly unprecedentedly low snowfall at this latitude makes perfect sense.

Fair enough...we disagree.

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

After this winter ... I hope we can get that look to set up in early May - it would be a nice courtesy wipe/reach around consolation if we can strafe the land with some tornadoes - haha

Because of the shutdown it's possible our NWS snowfall contest and severe contest bleed into each other in April.

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Euro looks icy to me 90-96 hours. It has sfc temps below frz over interior. Round 2 is like mid 30s but that could easily settle at 30F. We don't know. 

The soltuions of the last 24 hours though definitely don't quite get the cold push a strong after Tuesday. 

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay. You think normal temps, well above normal precip and nearly unprecedentedly low snowfall at this latitude makes perfect sense.

Fair enough...we disagree.

Well you’re talking about something completely different now. Sense vs luck. Luck didn’t give us lots of snow in similar patterns, just like it didnt deliver much snow so far this winter. It was simply the atmosphere being chaotic . That’s not luck... that’s science. I just don’t think now in our new warming climate that you can use analogs and expect a similar outcome to 30,40, 50 however many years ago. To me , things naturally shift north in this regime . That’s how I see it. But again that’s just my opinion . 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well you’re talking about something completely different now. Sense vs luck. Luck didn’t give us lots of snow in similar patterns, just like it delivered little snow so far this winter. It was simply the atmosphere being chaotic . That’s not luck... that’s science. I just don’t think now in our new warming climate that you can use analogs and expect a similar outcome to 30,40, 50 however many years ago. To me , things naturally shift north in this regime . That’s how I see it. But again that’s just my opinion . 

Chaos is luck. New climate? The winter wasn't warm...anyway, the winter sucked.

Agree 

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Not to get into a mouth-breather debate about luck  ... but, one could logically argue that part of the reason for the lack of winter storm performance has been the velocity saturation that has plagued most if not all the time since turning autumn into winter.

Which ...btw, by 'velocity saturation' ... that's just field vernacular for too much fast wind speed in the ambient atmosphere. That is another form of destructive wave interference - an insidious one at that.  Because it's not readily observable as being an inhibitor, but it it is... 

And, it's been prevalent the whole way.  In fact, despite 2015...it's been prevalent since about 2001 ... some  patterns and seasons more so than others, but ... more times than not, it's been there. 

But you see ...there are a lot of push and pull offsets occurring perpetually at all times. 

Although there's a disruptive/shearing aspect to fast flow ... a warming atmosphere overall means that the atmosphere physically can hold more theta-e, too.  Thus, mix that with cold.. more snow can result at relatively less mechanical presence. 

That's an unavoidable circumstance, btw ... High temperature holds more water vapor.  Winter storms are thus able to tap richer sources and snow more prolifically in the means ... if/when the atmospheric sources are being transported into the kinematics of a cold core cyclones. 

The secret?  We are not warmed yet to the point where cold core no longer means snow.  So, ... winters are warming, but in the interim, we "get to"  experience snow more.  Unless this year ...when systems are just getting smeared too much.  Seriously, how many "bombs" have there been?  We made it pretty damn far in time with exceptional temperature and DP gradients between southern Canada and the Texas with so little cyclogenesis.  ...just one way to look at it all...

 

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