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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Time is not on our side. 4 weeks left to really go gangbusters.

Nothing is gonna go gangbusters this winter.  At this point one decent snowstorm will be a welcomed change...that’s about all.   And We’re not going to get much more than that...if we even can get that.    The winter is a Giant Turd....plain and simple!  

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11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nothing is gonna go gangbusters this winter.  At this point one decent snowstorm will be a welcomed change...that’s about all.   And We’re not going to get much more than that...if we even can get that.    The winter is a Giant Turd....plain and simple!  

I'm still not convinced of that, but at this point, I've pulled back and am no longer invested like I was. I'm so sick of this season in general. I don't even feel like blogging any more at this point....feel like its been about 50 pages of hot air so far.

If the Pats lose, I'll probably go nuclear.

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs is still showing a storm for the 11th -12th. Colder on this run.

I commend you for analyzing OP solutions of storm threats 9 days out, after being force-fed a steady diet of rectal sauce for three months running. I won't even look unless something viable is inside of a week.

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm still not convinced of that, but at this point, I've pulled back and am no longer invested like I was. I'm so sick of this season in general. I don't even feel like blogging any more at this point....feel like its been about 50 pages of hot air so far.

If the Pats lose, I'll probably go nuclear.

At this point, and all that’s been going on...I’d say it’s a much better bet to say things are not gonna go big time over the next 6 weeks.  It just has that vibe of a Ratter.  

 

Ill be happy with just one good event at this point...and then let spring come and let us put this piece of sh*t behind us for good.  

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6 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

well all things considered, this winter hasn't been terrible in the ct river valley...fair amount of snow and some pretty cold temps

I'm only at 24" on Feb 3rd, not great. The cold has been pretty steady though and we will get at least a few more plowable snows I think.   At least we are in ok shape for Greenfield Winter Carnival today. 

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Reno AFD is off the hook

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDREV&wfo=REV

major winter storm continues to impact the region through Tuesday: . TRAVEL IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED IN THE SIERRA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. If you risk travel over the Sierra, make sure you are prepared for the very real possibility of getting stranded and/or trapped in your vehicle for a long time. It could be many hours until help may be able to reach you. . Strong winds tonight and Monday morning will create blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions in the Sierra and possibly also across much of western NV. . Heavy snow continues Monday night through Tuesday across the region creating continual travel problems. . Monday morning, Monday evening, and Tuesday morning commutes are likely to be very messy,

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...The cold air moves in this evening as the low pressure moves overhead. The cold front itself will push through the Tahoe/Reno areas between 6PM and 9PM this evening, with snow levels crashing down to valley floors (3500-4000ft after midnight). Heavy snow in the Sierra will increase overnight and into early Monday morning, becoming intense at times with snowfall rates of 3"+ per hour. Strong winds in the Sierra during this time, combined with high snow ratios over 15:1 will create blowing snow, drifting snow and areas of white-out conditions.

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Reno AFD is off the hook

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDREV&wfo=REV

major winter storm continues to impact the region through Tuesday: . TRAVEL IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED IN THE SIERRA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. If you risk travel over the Sierra, make sure you are prepared for the very real possibility of getting stranded and/or trapped in your vehicle for a long time. It could be many hours until help may be able to reach you. . Strong winds tonight and Monday morning will create blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions in the Sierra and possibly also across much of western NV. . Heavy snow continues Monday night through Tuesday across the region creating continual travel problems. . Monday morning, Monday evening, and Tuesday morning commutes are likely to be very messy,

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...The cold air moves in this evening as the low pressure moves overhead. The cold front itself will push through the Tahoe/Reno areas between 6PM and 9PM this evening, with snow levels crashing down to valley floors (3500-4000ft after midnight). Heavy snow in the Sierra will increase overnight and into early Monday morning, becoming intense at times with snowfall rates of 3"+ per hour. Strong winds in the Sierra during this time, combined with high snow ratios over 15:1 will create blowing snow, drifting snow and areas of white-out conditions.

Just have to be so freakin careful. Good grade school buddy of mine, an incredible skier, died in an avalanche out west few years back. They are definitely in that eerie, not sure if you’re gonna come home from your session, extreme danger levels with this latest storm. 

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I know,  it’s impressive!!  I ride my sled in N. Maine and they are buried...it just keeps snowing and snowing.  Both are beautiful areas. 

59.8" for CAR in January alone (record for the month).

Fell 0.1" short of tying Dec 1972 for snowiest month.

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We’re paying the price for presuming there was a big enough sample size to predict long range with reasonable accuracy.  It worked last year but it fails often enough.   We need go get a larger trove of data and that would mean we’d need reliable ssta records and H5 back hundreds of years and that’s not happening any time soon.

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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a recurrent theme ...one that's been rehashing all season (and probably last season and the year before for that matter).

The GFS picks up on some scenario in the late middle and extended ranges that the Euro may or may not even have much in the way of detection and presentation.

GFS sticks with it's overall evolution until about mid way through the middle range; in the interim, the Euro having not only caught on, but phases a bomb through the Lakes... GFS still has it's idea but then starts moving toward the more amplitude scenario of the Euro...

Day four roles around and the Euro's within the 90th percentile accuracy and has the system nailed down as being similar (though not exact) to whatever it was the GFS originally had back when it was late middle and extended range; the GFS is (in this case) although still flat, will inevitably be running the boundary coherently and obviously too far NW of theoretical limitations for BL resistance and the harping and chiding and excoriation of that particular tool is well underway by the Lords Of The Internet bully -pulpit Flies...

Then, a day ...day and half before, the GFS finally tries to either reintroduce, either way ... acknowledge the boundary layer forcing, ...The Euro of course has been unwavering for the last two to three days..., and everyone's toeing the castigation line against the GFS as this horrible abomination to the technical advancement of deterministic Meteorology.

It's all happened ... pretty much just like that... like seven times since this mistake of a winter started logging weeks in the books. 

The astute, objective readers of this sardonic op ed might see the deeper problem with model evaluation that is intimated...

 

I peruse this forum often because you guys have some great meteorological discussion...and I must give myself a pat on the back...I understood over 90% of what you just said! :P

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27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ray was driving the bus. I was mearly the field trip teacher instructing the kids it was leaving. Blame him, he missed the exit for the theme park. 

Yea, I blew it. I was confident, so gotta admit when you're wrong. Rrgardless of how much luck is involved...bottom line is I was wong. However that doesn't mean we still can't score.

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