WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Time is not on our side. 4 weeks left to really go gangbusters. Nothing is gonna go gangbusters this winter. At this point one decent snowstorm will be a welcomed change...that’s about all. And We’re not going to get much more than that...if we even can get that. The winter is a Giant Turd....plain and simple! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Cmc has a good pattern but suppression is a danger Lmao... of course...man this really is the 1980’s to a T!! We are back to the Future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lmao... of course...man this really is the 1980’s to a T!! We are back to the Future. I said that back in Novie and you growled at me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nothing is gonna go gangbusters this winter. At this point one decent snowstorm will be a welcomed change...that’s about all. And We’re not going to get much more than that...if we even can get that. The winter is a Giant Turd....plain and simple! I'm still not convinced of that, but at this point, I've pulled back and am no longer invested like I was. I'm so sick of this season in general. I don't even feel like blogging any more at this point....feel like its been about 50 pages of hot air so far. If the Pats lose, I'll probably go nuclear. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Gfs is still showing a storm for the 11th -12th. Colder on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is still showing a storm for the 11th -12th. Colder on this run. I commend you for analyzing OP solutions of storm threats 9 days out, after being force-fed a steady diet of rectal sauce for three months running. I won't even look unless something viable is inside of a week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I said that back in Novie and you growled at me. You also said get on the bus everybody...this winter is gonna rock. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 well all things considered, this winter hasn't been terrible in the ct river valley...fair amount of snow and some pretty cold temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm still not convinced of that, but at this point, I've pulled back and am no longer invested like I was. I'm so sick of this season in general. I don't even feel like blogging any more at this point....feel like its been about 50 pages of hot air so far. If the Pats lose, I'll probably go nuclear. At this point, and all that’s been going on...I’d say it’s a much better bet to say things are not gonna go big time over the next 6 weeks. It just has that vibe of a Ratter. Ill be happy with just one good event at this point...and then let spring come and let us put this piece of sh*t behind us for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 You also said get on the bus everybody...this winter is gonna rock. Yeah and it drove 50ft and promptly broke down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: well all things considered, this winter hasn't been terrible in the ct river valley...fair amount of snow and some pretty cold temps I'm only at 24" on Feb 3rd, not great. The cold has been pretty steady though and we will get at least a few more plowable snows I think. At least we are in ok shape for Greenfield Winter Carnival today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 I’m over it IMBY. But, the least this shit season could do is keep it going up North. At least I can drive and go get some real winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: I’m over it IMBY. But, the least this shit season could do is keep it going up North. At least I can drive and go get some real winter. Oh it’s great up north in NNE. I think they will rock right to the end., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Was in the NEK yesterday. Unbelievable the amount of snow up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Reno AFD is off the hook https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDREV&wfo=REV major winter storm continues to impact the region through Tuesday: . TRAVEL IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED IN THE SIERRA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. If you risk travel over the Sierra, make sure you are prepared for the very real possibility of getting stranded and/or trapped in your vehicle for a long time. It could be many hours until help may be able to reach you. . Strong winds tonight and Monday morning will create blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions in the Sierra and possibly also across much of western NV. . Heavy snow continues Monday night through Tuesday across the region creating continual travel problems. . Monday morning, Monday evening, and Tuesday morning commutes are likely to be very messy, TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...The cold air moves in this evening as the low pressure moves overhead. The cold front itself will push through the Tahoe/Reno areas between 6PM and 9PM this evening, with snow levels crashing down to valley floors (3500-4000ft after midnight). Heavy snow in the Sierra will increase overnight and into early Monday morning, becoming intense at times with snowfall rates of 3"+ per hour. Strong winds in the Sierra during this time, combined with high snow ratios over 15:1 will create blowing snow, drifting snow and areas of white-out conditions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Was in the NEK yesterday. Unbelievable the amount of snow up there. I know, it’s impressive!! I ride my sled in N. Maine and they are buried...it just keeps snowing and snowing. Both are beautiful areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Reno AFD is off the hook https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDREV&wfo=REV major winter storm continues to impact the region through Tuesday: . TRAVEL IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED IN THE SIERRA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. If you risk travel over the Sierra, make sure you are prepared for the very real possibility of getting stranded and/or trapped in your vehicle for a long time. It could be many hours until help may be able to reach you. . Strong winds tonight and Monday morning will create blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions in the Sierra and possibly also across much of western NV. . Heavy snow continues Monday night through Tuesday across the region creating continual travel problems. . Monday morning, Monday evening, and Tuesday morning commutes are likely to be very messy, TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...The cold air moves in this evening as the low pressure moves overhead. The cold front itself will push through the Tahoe/Reno areas between 6PM and 9PM this evening, with snow levels crashing down to valley floors (3500-4000ft after midnight). Heavy snow in the Sierra will increase overnight and into early Monday morning, becoming intense at times with snowfall rates of 3"+ per hour. Strong winds in the Sierra during this time, combined with high snow ratios over 15:1 will create blowing snow, drifting snow and areas of white-out conditions. Just have to be so freakin careful. Good grade school buddy of mine, an incredible skier, died in an avalanche out west few years back. They are definitely in that eerie, not sure if you’re gonna come home from your session, extreme danger levels with this latest storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I know, it’s impressive!! I ride my sled in N. Maine and they are buried...it just keeps snowing and snowing. Both are beautiful areas. 59.8" for CAR in January alone (record for the month). Fell 0.1" short of tying Dec 1972 for snowiest month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You also said get on the bus everybody...this winter is gonna rock. Ray was driving the bus. I was mearly the field trip teacher instructing the kids it was leaving. Blame him, he missed the exit for the theme park. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: 59.8" for CAR in January alone (record for the month). Fell 0.1" short of tying Dec 1972 for snowiest month. Still short of Boston’s best month.....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 We’re paying the price for presuming there was a big enough sample size to predict long range with reasonable accuracy. It worked last year but it fails often enough. We need go get a larger trove of data and that would mean we’d need reliable ssta records and H5 back hundreds of years and that’s not happening any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 It would be great if the euro MJO is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: It would be great if the euro MJO is correct. DT just mentioned that on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Not surprising but I see Don S has finally yielded to this cruddy winter and mailed it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: It would be great if the euro MJO is correct. Gefs has the mjo going into 8 but with a higher magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 I'd suggest rephrasing that ... " ... It would be nice if the Euro MJO were correct AND most importantly, the rest of the hemisphere was in a constructive interference pattern" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's a recurrent theme ...one that's been rehashing all season (and probably last season and the year before for that matter). The GFS picks up on some scenario in the late middle and extended ranges that the Euro may or may not even have much in the way of detection and presentation. GFS sticks with it's overall evolution until about mid way through the middle range; in the interim, the Euro having not only caught on, but phases a bomb through the Lakes... GFS still has it's idea but then starts moving toward the more amplitude scenario of the Euro... Day four roles around and the Euro's within the 90th percentile accuracy and has the system nailed down as being similar (though not exact) to whatever it was the GFS originally had back when it was late middle and extended range; the GFS is (in this case) although still flat, will inevitably be running the boundary coherently and obviously too far NW of theoretical limitations for BL resistance and the harping and chiding and excoriation of that particular tool is well underway by the Lords Of The Internet bully -pulpit Flies... Then, a day ...day and half before, the GFS finally tries to either reintroduce, either way ... acknowledge the boundary layer forcing, ...The Euro of course has been unwavering for the last two to three days..., and everyone's toeing the castigation line against the GFS as this horrible abomination to the technical advancement of deterministic Meteorology. It's all happened ... pretty much just like that... like seven times since this mistake of a winter started logging weeks in the books. The astute, objective readers of this sardonic op ed might see the deeper problem with model evaluation that is intimated... I peruse this forum often because you guys have some great meteorological discussion...and I must give myself a pat on the back...I understood over 90% of what you just said! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 GEFS 12z is actually a very nice pattern with the ridge far enough east (EPO and pna) to be great for most of us. GEFS is like a box of chocolate..you never know what you’re gonna get.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ray was driving the bus. I was mearly the field trip teacher instructing the kids it was leaving. Blame him, he missed the exit for the theme park. Yea, I blew it. I was confident, so gotta admit when you're wrong. Rrgardless of how much luck is involved...bottom line is I was wong. However that doesn't mean we still can't score. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Zero has to do with luck as was hashed out yesterday. The atmosphere shut us down to date . Not luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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