CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: As in you say things that reflect deeper desires that you don’t want to acknowledge or talk about directly. Sometimes “unowned” parts of yourself. Back to the weather conversation there is so much chaos on the models I think we should focus short term and look for those opportunities that suddenly get good around 72-96 as I expect later next will. The models have been showing Nao ridging/blocking for a while now so I think it is going to happen at some point soon. Or at least enough to help most of us No not at all. I just like to make everything nice and disturbingly visual. I defintely don’t desire what I think you’re assuming. In any case, euro had a nice ice event for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Cow crap yo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Damn that EPO ridge gets really poleward on EPS. Gonna be some more Arctic outbreaks regardless of snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Damn that EPO ridge gets really poleward on EPS. Gonna be some more Arctic outbreaks regardless of snow events. I literally was just going to post that. Wow. Baked Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I literally was just going to post that. Wow. Baked Alaska. Builds the entire run too...that's impressive because it's already zonked by d9-10, yet the mean keeps building. Even at d14-15...for an ensemble mean to keep building that far out when it's already very amped is impressive. Epic cold staying in North America. Prob another brutal Arctic outbreak or three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Mammoth averages 300 inches/year. 120 this week at the summit? Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Snowy run of eps but we’ve seen this before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Snowy run of eps but we’ve seen this before... Cant see with that EPO any thing but positive outcomes. What bothers me is a strong jet over head. Shredded systems . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Eps looks great from the 11th onward. This might be the real deal if the woo cooperates and the mjo go into the favorable phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Builds the entire run too...that's impressive because it's already zonked by d9-10, yet the mean keeps building. Even at d14-15...for an ensemble mean to keep building that far out when it's already very amped is impressive. Epic cold staying in North America. Prob another brutal Arctic outbreak or three. What will @dendrite think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 How’s EPS for the Thursday/ Friday ice event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How’s EPS for the Thursday/ Friday ice event? Close the shades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Cant see with that EPO any thing but positive outcomes. What bothers me is a strong jet over head. Shredded systems . We’ll see. Get some buckling and we can have fun especially if we pull at least a transient block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 If thurs fri doesn’t flatten and come colder then it is a win for the euro yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Close the shades. It's not that bad for interior. I'd like to see a little bit less wound, but there's still some pretty good icing signal and it could get better. I'd obviously keep expectations tamed at 5 days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: Close the shades. Yeah, but in 10 days it's looking pretty damn good. #sameoldsonganddance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's not that bad for interior. I'd like to see a little bit less wound, but there's still some pretty good icing signal and it could get better. I'd obviously keep expectations tamed at 5 days though. Pike north especially Worcester to Lawrence and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Pike north especially Worcester to Lawrence and north Yeah esp with a more wound up primary. It's going to keep the best CAD north but we'll see if it goes a little stringier like other guidance. If it does then it gets a lot of people into the ice threat. Theres plenty of time to figure it out though. The instinct is to expect it to trend into a 35F rainstorm because that is what this winter does, but can't ignore the high placement either right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Builds the entire run too...that's impressive because it's already zonked by d9-10, yet the mean keeps building. Even at d14-15...for an ensemble mean to keep building that far out when it's already very amped is impressive. Epic cold staying in North America. Prob another brutal Arctic outbreak or three. That's more like 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah esp with a more wound up primary. It's going to keep the best CAD north but we'll see if it goes a little stringier like other guidance. If it does then it gets a lot of people into the ice threat. Theres plenty of time to figure it out though. The instinct is to expect it to trend into a 35F rainstorm because that is what this winter does, but can't ignore the high placement either right now. I may start looking at generators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: That more like 2015. feb 2015 without the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, 512high said: feb 2015 without the snow? FEB 2015 with an insane EPO ridge.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 35 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps looks great from the 11th onward. This might be the real deal if the woo cooperates and the mjo go into the favorable phase. Maybe I rushed it by 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah esp with a more wound up primary. It's going to keep the best CAD north but we'll see if it goes a little stringier like other guidance. If it does then it gets a lot of people into the ice threat. Theres plenty of time to figure it out though. The instinct is to expect it to trend into a 35F rainstorm because that is what this winter does, but can't ignore the high placement either right now. All the NCEP ensemble variance is tied to the reloading of the EPO ridge. Which isn't even part of the trough that comes onshore over the West Coast tomorrow, it's still out NW of Hawaii. Hopefully GOES-17 is providing some nice satellite estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah esp with a more wound up primary. It's going to keep the best CAD north but we'll see if it goes a little stringier like other guidance. If it does then it gets a lot of people into the ice threat. Theres plenty of time to figure it out though. The instinct is to expect it to trend into a 35F rainstorm because that is what this winter does, but can't ignore the high placement either right now. That’s not what my instincts tell me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I may start looking at generators. I'm not sure how much qpf it will have. I typically like to see huge qpf amounts to worry about crippling ice storms. But the caveat is that we could maybe get it slowly because there's front running waves too...even on the euro. So it can accrete more efficiently that way if it panned out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s not what my instincts tell me. My hunch is that the OP euro is the warmest goal post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm not sure how much qpf it will have. I typically like to see huge qpf amounts to worry about crippling ice storms. But the caveat is that we could maybe get it slowly because there's front running waves too...even on the euro. So it can accrete more efficiently that way if it panned out like that. What are we talking... .6" over 36 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My hunch is that the OP euro is the warmest goal post. -EPO coming in always seem to parlay into colder as the events close in with less stemwinding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Diff from 2015 is that we don't have the PNA ridge, which was also perfectly placed....however it looks like we may have a bit more NAO. Botton line: Expect snowier outcomes, but not 100" in 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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