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February 2019 Discussion I


NorEastermass128
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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

As in you say things that reflect deeper desires that you don’t want to acknowledge or talk about directly.  Sometimes “unowned” parts of yourself.   

Back to the weather conversation there is so much chaos on the models I think we should focus short term and look for those opportunities that suddenly get good around 72-96 as I expect later next will.   The models have been showing Nao ridging/blocking for a while now so I think it is going to happen at some point soon. Or at least enough to help most of us 

:lol:   No not at all. I just like to make everything nice and disturbingly visual. I defintely don’t desire what I think you’re assuming. In any case, euro had a nice ice event for you. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I literally was just going to post that. Wow. Baked Alaska.

Builds the entire run too...that's impressive because it's already zonked by d9-10, yet the mean keeps building. Even at d14-15...for an ensemble mean to keep building that far out when it's already very amped is impressive. 

Epic cold staying in North America. Prob another brutal Arctic outbreak or three. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Builds the entire run too...that's impressive because it's already zonked by d9-10, yet the mean keeps building. Even at d14-15...for an ensemble mean to keep building that far out when it's already very amped is impressive. 

Epic cold staying in North America. Prob another brutal Arctic outbreak or three. 

What will @dendrite think?

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11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Close the shades.

It's not that bad for interior. I'd like to see a little bit less wound, but there's still some pretty good icing signal and it could get better. I'd obviously keep expectations tamed at 5 days though. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's not that bad for interior. I'd like to see a little bit less wound, but there's still some pretty good icing signal and it could get better. I'd obviously keep expectations tamed at 5 days though. 

Pike north especially Worcester to Lawrence and north 

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Pike north especially Worcester to Lawrence and north 

Yeah esp with a more wound up primary. It's going to keep the best CAD north but we'll see if it goes a little stringier like other guidance. If it does then it gets a lot of people into the ice threat. 

Theres plenty of time to figure it out though. The instinct is to expect it to trend into a 35F rainstorm because that is what this winter does, but can't ignore the high placement either right now. 

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40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Builds the entire run too...that's impressive because it's already zonked by d9-10, yet the mean keeps building. Even at d14-15...for an ensemble mean to keep building that far out when it's already very amped is impressive. 

Epic cold staying in North America. Prob another brutal Arctic outbreak or three. 

That's more like 2015.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah esp with a more wound up primary. It's going to keep the best CAD north but we'll see if it goes a little stringier like other guidance. If it does then it gets a lot of people into the ice threat. 

Theres plenty of time to figure it out though. The instinct is to expect it to trend into a 35F rainstorm because that is what this winter does, but can't ignore the high placement either right now. 

I may start looking at generators.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah esp with a more wound up primary. It's going to keep the best CAD north but we'll see if it goes a little stringier like other guidance. If it does then it gets a lot of people into the ice threat. 

Theres plenty of time to figure it out though. The instinct is to expect it to trend into a 35F rainstorm because that is what this winter does, but can't ignore the high placement either right now. 

All the NCEP ensemble variance is tied to the reloading of the EPO ridge. Which isn't even part of the trough that comes onshore over the West Coast tomorrow, it's still out NW of Hawaii. Hopefully GOES-17 is providing some nice satellite estimates.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah esp with a more wound up primary. It's going to keep the best CAD north but we'll see if it goes a little stringier like other guidance. If it does then it gets a lot of people into the ice threat. 

Theres plenty of time to figure it out though. The instinct is to expect it to trend into a 35F rainstorm because that is what this winter does, but can't ignore the high placement either right now. 

That’s not what my instincts tell me.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I may start looking at generators.

I'm not sure how much qpf it will have. I typically like to see huge qpf amounts to worry about crippling ice storms. But the caveat is that we could maybe get it slowly because there's front running waves too...even on the euro. So it can accrete more efficiently that way if it panned out like that. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not sure how much qpf it will have. I typically like to see huge qpf amounts to worry about crippling ice storms. But the caveat is that we could maybe get it slowly because there's front running waves too...even on the euro. So it can accrete more efficiently that way if it panned out like that. 

What are we talking... .6" over 36 hours?

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