WinterWolf Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 32 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: The black capped chickadee? Those have been loud here in the morning. I usually don’t hear them until later March or April though at the earliest. The sounds of the birds loud or otherwise doesn’t mean anything with regard to how winter is going ...or not going in our case. I have a lot of song birds around here...and they’re as silent as can be lately. So it’s just a matter of where you are and what the birds in that area are doing at the time imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Long range looks the same, I mean next week. Long range has been gradient looking. The nao is what’s voodoo. Why is it so hard to get a negative nao? Jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Geezuz LR turned to shit again. Lol what a disastah Yea, I give up. Ready for the SB and fantasy baseball....if it snows, great Sorry the outlook sucked azz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I give up. Ready for the SB and fantasy baseball....if it snows, great Sorry the outlook sucked azz. A good learning experience? Raindancewx's forecast was excellent though, it crushed JB's and DT's forecasts, and pretty much everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 I'd almost feel better if it just stayed awful bc at this point, if we rocked, I'd be killing myself for not going more assertively with 1969. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I give up. Ready for the SB and fantasy baseball....if it snows, great Sorry the outlook sucked azz. No worries, Ray. It was a fine education and entertaining to read. I'm cheering futility at this point and looking forward to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: A good learning experience? Raindancewx's forecast was excellent though, it crushed JB's and DT's forecasts, and pretty much everyone else. Absolutely. Assuming nothing drastically changes, completely agree. This happens to everyone, though....raindance puked on himself last season, and I absolutely nailed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 I noted the paltry MEI all along, but interpreted as a sign that el nino would stay weak like 1969. Never thought it meant nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said: Anyone else notice how loud the birds are in the morning? Sounds like an early summer morning here the past few days. I typically notice that onset during the first week of February's as well... Seems perhaps there is a day-light signal that triggers increased activity ... When you're laying there, eyes still sealed shut by slumber yet vaguely conscious, those frenzied chirps ans squawks through the window do hearken to June or July .. and some part of your mind is guided there in reminiscence; even though it may yet be less than 20 degrees outside that very same window. February is the antithesis of August ... Any given day in August, one may find themselves anemic with heat ... arms and legs draped precipitously over deck chairs along side the history of ice morphed to half consumed flaccid beverage near by; 45 days later it could be snowing.. February, of course going the other direction... despite any high impact, deeply gelid cryo-bombs may have the local user-ship in a dopamine euphoria of joy and high spirits, albeit rare- we can touch 80 in March. Heh, even if it's only recovered into the 40s in the means, with the occasional 55, it's a whole different world. It's not capturing essence to say it all that way, but ... once you get on in years ( I suppose) and a month seems to transpire in the circadian awareness of mere week ... weeks seemingly like days...and of course years stolen by the event horizon of advancing life ... it becomes easier to accept and appreciate just how close the given seasons account is to being broke; that the season's transition in reality starts in those months - it's just super subtle at that end of asymptote ... It's just not very well physically presented in the daily tactile weather on the skin or through the eyes, but it's happening. Although.. one could justly argue the latter. As an aside, in August ... flora does seem to lose it's pop, doesn't it ... Looking pallid, the greens are less vibrantly hued comparing to early June. On the other side, by the time you get past, oh ~ February 10 each year, (Kevin's favorite magical date when he no longer has to pre-heat his car when it is parked in the afternoon sun) a 540 DM thickness under a full sun, on a COL day, with 850 mb temperatures of 0 C ... will get you to 60 F on Boston Common at the zenith. I know...I've seen it, both there, and up at college at UML several times. And it eats the snow back in the banks and starts giving the pack that serrated surface look where the sun's admonishment disables its integrity. Anyway ... fwiw ... the Ground Hog apparently thinks the winter is ending soon, haha... A meaningless gesture that when applied to this particular back-bruised brethren stills seems perhaps cruel. I will say though... the CPC GEF's based tele's are warm .. .not hugely so, but in a post GW era of acceleration ... any times I even see a modest +NAO/-PNA, ...and highly clustered rising modality in the AO ... we'd better hope that EPO alone can do it's bidding... We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: A good learning experience? Raindancewx's forecast was excellent though, it crushed JB's and DT's forecasts, and pretty much everyone else. Everyone busted pretty bad A weak EL Nino is great for the east coast. No one in their right mind expected the PNA and MJO to suck all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Raindance was also entertaining the notion of a strong el nino as recently as like Nov or Dec, and was comparing this to 1997-1998, so I think everyone has had some moments of confusion. Best outlook, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Tippy heat surge from off Mexico this week. It will be near 90 in south Texas. Very cold into the Plains. Defintely a classic gradient look, but my guess is don’t hope for the white stuff. Gonna be in the Ocala FL area 7-11 forecast is callin for near 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Looks like a pretty nice week coming up. Will be nice to get some outdoor stuff done like stacking more firewood. The lower heating load will be real nice as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Raindance was also entertaining the notion of a strong el nino as recently as like Nov or Dec, and was comparing this to 1997-1998, so I think everyone has had some moments of confusion. Correct though his overall analog set was a lot more reasonable. 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Everyone busted pretty bad A weak EL Nino is great for the east coast. No one in their right mind expected the PNA and MJO to suck all winter. The +SOI way back in December ended up foreshadowing the Nina influences. The MJO also told the story, its progression lined up perfectly with what we saw this winter. Even its brief journey into phase 8 resulted in a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2, 2019 Author Share Posted February 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I typically notice that onset during the first week of February's as well... Seems perhaps there is a day-light signal that triggers increased activity ... When you're laying there, eyes still sealed shut by slumber yet vaguely conscious, those frenzied chirps ans squawks through the window do hearken to June or July .. and some part of your mind is guided there in reminiscence; even though it may yet be less than 20 degrees outside that very same window. February is the antithesis of August ... Any given day in August, one may find themselves anemic with heat ... arms and legs draped precipitously over deck chairs along side the history of ice morphed to half consumed flaccid beverage near by; 45 days later it could be snowing.. February, of course going the other direction... despite any high impact, deeply gelid cryo-bombs has the local user-ship in a dopamine euphoria of joy and high spirits, albeit rare- we can touch 80 in March. Heh, even if it's 40s with the occasional 55, it's a whole different world. It's not capturing essence to say it all that way, but ... once you get on in years ( I suppose) and a month seems to transpire in the circadian awareness of mere week ... weeks seemingly like days...and of course years stolen by the event horizon of advancing life ... it becomes easier to accept and appreciate just how close the given seasons account is to being broke; that the season's transition in reality starts in those months - it's just super subtle at that end of asymptote ... It's just not very well physically presented in the daily tactile weather on the skin or through the eyes, but it's happening. Although.. one could justly argue the latter. As an aside, in August ... flora does seem to lose it's pop, doesn't it ... Looking pallid, the greens are less vibrantly hued comparing to early June. On the other side, by the time you get past, oh ~ February 10 each year, (Kevin's favorite magical date when he no longer has to pre-heat his car when it is parked in the afternoon sun) a 540 DM thickness under a full sun, on a COL day, with 850 mb temperatures of 0 C ... will get you to 60 F on Boston Common at the zenith. I know...I've seen it, both there, and up at college at UML several times. And it eats the snow back in the banks and starts giving the pack that serrated surface look where the sun's admonishment disables its integrity. Anyway ... fwiw ... the Ground Hog apparently thinks the winter is ending soon, haha... A meaningless gesture that when applied to this particular back-bruised brethren stills seems perhaps cruel. I will say though... the CPC GEF's based tele's are warm .. .not hugely so, but in a post GW era of acceleration ... any times I even see a modest +NAO/-PNA, ...and highly clustered rising modality in the AO ... we'd better hope that EPO alone can do it's bidding... We'll see Bingo! Spot on reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd almost feel better if it just stayed awful bc at this point, if we rocked, I'd be killing myself for not going more assertively with 1969. It’s gonna stay Awful...don’t worry about that. Great effort nonetheless!! It’s just a ratter through and through. What a waste. Hoping to get up north one more time towards the end of the month...that’ll give me my fill in wintertime fun, and I’ll be ready for spring after that. What makes Raindance’s outlook impressive however....is that it went in the opposite direction of all major and well respected METS and hobbyists. That is a Major feather for that guys cap. He saw something that most nobody else did..and nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I noted the paltry MEI all along, but interpreted as a sign that el nino would stay weak like 1969. Never thought it meant nina. Raindance never thought that either...why doesnt that matter in this context? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Definitely noticed the songbirds this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Raindance never thought that either...why doesnt that matter in this context? Perhaps??? But the guy got it right(maybe a reason or two was wrong) but his outlook to date is spot on. I thought the guy was out of his gord when he put his outlook out...but he proved everybody wrong. Can’t argue with that. JB Still thinks we are heading for a rocking Mid Feb-Mid March...time will tell. I’m pretty much done thinking that...sometimes it’s better to come to terms with things, rather than try to find reasons for denial. It’s a shit season in SNE for snow lovers....not much more to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: Perhaps??? But the guy got it right(maybe a reason or two was wrong) but his outlook to date is spot on. I thought the guy was out of his gord when he put his outlook out...but he proved everybody wrong. Can’t argue with that. JB Still thinks we are heading for a rocking Mid Feb-Mid March...time will tell. I’m pretty much done thinking that...sometimes it’s better to come to terms with things, rather than try to find reasons for denial. It’s a shit season in SNE for snow lovers....not much more to say. I mean i argued with him just not that long ago when he was going on about similarities to 97 98. The reasoning should matter. I think people (me included) place too much certainity on the outcome of a certain look. I wouldnt be surprised if only 30 to 50 percent of snowfall variance is explained via the mean 500mb look. The other stuff is driven by shortwave stuff thats almost impossible to get right at decent lead time. At yyt for example, the sum of the normalized temperature anomaly and the normalize precipitation anomaly explains about 50 percent of variance (r squared of around 0.70). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I mean i argued with him just not that long ago when he was going on about similarities to 97 98. The reasoning should matter. I think people (me included) place too much certainity on the outcome of a certain look. I wouldnt be surprised if only 30 to 50 percent of snowfall variance is explained via the mean 500mb look. The other stuff is driven by shortwave stuff thats almost impossible to get right at decent lead time. At yyt for example, the sum of the normalized temperature anomaly and the normalize precipitation anomaly explains about 50 percent of variance (r squared of around 0.70). Out of curiosity...what's the latest measurable up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I mean i argued with him just not that long ago when he was going on about similarities to 97 98. The reasoning should matter. I think people (me included) place too much certainity on the outcome of a certain look. I wouldnt be surprised if only 30 to 50 percent of snowfall variance is explained via the mean 500mb look. The other stuff is driven by shortwave stuff thats almost impossible to get right at decent lead time. At yyt for example, the sum of the normalized temperature anomaly and the normalize precipitation anomaly explains about 50 percent of variance (r squared of around 0.70). I think it should matter too...but his reasoning was right in other areas obviously...so nobody has all the reasoning completely correct imo. And if you think/do have all the reasoning correct, and the results turn out completely opposite of what your outlook called for...then that sucks even more/worse!! See my futility thread post...chaos and bad juju play a bigger role than I think we all might think. The atmosphere fooled most of us this season...and with another half of winter to go..she’s still fooling around and fooling most. JB like I said, is still thinking a big turn around. My gut tells me otherwise.... I’ll go with that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I mean i argued with him just not that long ago when he was going on about similarities to 97 98. The reasoning should matter. I think people (me included) place too much certainity on the outcome of a certain look. I wouldnt be surprised if only 30 to 50 percent of snowfall variance is explained via the mean 500mb look. The other stuff is driven by shortwave stuff thats almost impossible to get right at decent lead time. At yyt for example, the sum of the normalized temperature anomaly and the normalize precipitation anomaly explains about 50 percent of variance (r squared of around 0.70). Snowfall outlook is the most voodoo of any metric. If someone just says above or below and doesn’t show or state why, forecast is tossed and he or she simply does not understand seasonal forecasting. Just saying low snow, does not get a pass. Especially when less than 100 miles away rocked. Explain that one? Explain the bitter nina cold across a good part of country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 I distinctly recall early seasonal outlooks from several sources ... way back early in the game. I wanna say, September even. But those were not cold wintered ... and not that snowy. In fact, one was even "mild and wet" as the predominant characteristic for the canonical U.S. There was coherent tendency to really put a lot of emphasis on the Pacific SSTs on the various "sub-agency" (. .. nice way to put it) outlooks. It's just my personal opinion ... but, given to the warm-neutral surface and thermocline/SOI numbers, the idea of El Nino emerging over the winter is busting. It's very complex with that ... As recently as January 10, Climate Prediction Center's publication on the ENSO's very first statement is a wonderful thesis statement for me: "ENSO - neutral continued during December 2018, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean." Folks may be want to review how they assess the true nature of the ENSO ... because it did seem to me back whence in a lot of those reads that folks were looking at the pretty colors of the surface anime provided by the various on-line sources, but the ENSO is depth-integral-related physical state. Other's may have relied about predicted values by official sources... understood. The on-going SST anomalies that are surface noted ... I'm not entirely sure those are not just part of the on-going GW business and/or partially related to - It has to be, to some "degree" (y'nuk y'nuk). Right? I mean... the SSTs are in contact with an atmosphere that is empirically warming at an accelerated rate over decades... Meanwhile, ...according to the CPC ... the Southern Oscillation Index has elevated to modestly positive ... well, positive values of SOI are correlated with La Nina, actually... So, in terms of the oceanic-atmospheric coupled model ... the warm ENSO ideas that were purported and predicted by NCEP are, either way, not being convincingly supported ... at least when channeling through any atmospheric responses. Haven't seen the January SOI numbers just yet from America but Australian government seems to think January was modestly negative but the 90-day mean is positive.. It's just not convincing. All the while... I really question whether the oceanic variations occurring in the greater heat source and sink balancing of the hemisphere(s) is evening occurring at or above threshold where they would "force" anything... I think the atmosphere sensitivity to a warmer ocean is elevating concomitant with GW... And, if anything... a neutral-warm SST surface only is just part of the circumstance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Snowfall outlook is the most voodoo of any metric. If someone just says above or below and doesn’t show or state why, forecast is tossed and he or she simply does not understand seasonal forecasting. Just saying low snow, does not get a pass. Especially when less than 100 miles away rocked. Explain that one? Explain the bitter nina cold across a good part of country? CHAOS!! It can’t be foreseen or predicted at our current level of technology or understanding. But it I agree with what you’re saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Out of curiosity...what's the latest measurable up there? Hmm. Mid to late june i believe. Theres been a 5 incher on june 10th 1959. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 EC doesnt seem to have a stat for last measurable in their climo data. So id have to go through each month lol. But theres never been snow in july or august. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Latest Euro mjo looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Man, hit 0 Thursday night and -4.5 last night...impressive cold. I radiate pretty well here....nestled in at like 154' amid lots of 250-350' hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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