Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The day before the 2008 icestorm had a high of 57F at ORH. And he lost every tree on his property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 worried about sun angle in novie and warm trees in early feb. unreal 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: And he lost every tree on his property. Yeah probably....though he didn't live in ORH county yet. The funny thing too is that it was upper 50s the day before and the ice storm didn't even have temps that cold...like 30-31F for most of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 26 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Should we start a thread so we can wish-cast it our way? Honestly though I don't see how there's going to be any substantial ice when we'll have warm ground and trees from 60 degree temps. Are you serious....????? You need to do some research on warm ground.... and now Trees???? Holy Smokes Minster you sound like an absolute idiot talking like that. LMAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Does weatherbell give their NAO calculation methodology? I can sort of see why the CPC is "meh" on it....there's still some low heights near Iceland/Norwegian Sea which actually does factor into the domain of the CPC calculation. That pattern itself to me doesn't look like a classic +NAO though....it's got ridging over northern and central Greenland...so even if some lower heights over iceland, it's not really that important to us if there's ridging to the west of it. Not that I can see, Wxbell is -2. But yeah its a bit of a mixed bag overall, there's been consistent blocking on the eastern side near Iceland/Scandinavia with low heights over Europe. CPC will automatically docs any -NAO calculation where there's a SE/Central Atlantic ridge. I don't really understand why the CPC AO uses 1000mb z and the NAO uses 500mb. Seems a like a disconnect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 I don’t know what to think, certainly lots of data to go through. One thing is certain February is here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 CNE and SNE has been fairly easy to forecast this winter...the model showing lowest snow numbers or no snow at all in the short to mid range has been correct most of the time, so one should just assume they are correct until proven wrong. The complete reverse of 2015....hopefully the trend bucks for the second half of February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 30 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: CNE and SNE has been fairly easy to forecast this winter...the model showing lowest snow numbers or no snow at all in the short to mid range has been correct most of the time, so one should just assume they are correct until proven wrong. The complete reverse of 2015....hopefully the trend bucks for the second half of February This has been why I have been hedging warmer in that system...at least in the mid levels, anyway. A bitter cold rain, some sleet and ice wouldn't surprise me...but don't anticipate much snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: The difference between wxbell and cpc calculation of NAO is over 2 stdev lol. And most of the time it’s the reverse where the CPC one is too negative. It’s fairly unusual to see it be the other way around. The CPC one if I remember correctly DT has said is biased negative when there is any sort of transient block or east based -NAO and tends to have problems biasing positive with heavily west based type of blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Do many look at the indices and use to forecast? I don't even know when I've ever used the text values. I just fire up H5 and can see what's going on. the -NAO can be misrepresented when you have Davis Straits troughing, but a good ridge punching into Greenland can help give it the effect it would have if it were in the Davis Straits. A true classic -NAO is usually ridging in the Davis Straits. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That the euro? Pretty optimistic and let’s hope it’s right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: That the euro? Pretty optimistic and let’s hope it’s right! Thats the euro weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Do many look at the indices and use to forecast? I don't even know when I've ever used the text values. I just fire up H5 and can see what's going on. the -NAO can be misrepresented when you have Davis Straits troughing, but a good ridge punching into Greenland can help give it the effect it would have if it were in the Davis Straits. A true classic -NAO is usually ridging in the Davis Straits. More of a curiosity for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: More of a curiosity for me. I was just throwing it out there. Had me thinking. I think some enthusiasts may use it, but I feel like it may falsely represent it one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’m pretty sure this isn’t even physically possible but here it is. Is this a good gradient look for up here? How accurate are the snips? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: That the euro? Pretty optimistic and let’s hope it’s right! Here is the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 GFS rather strung out next week. Looks like some snow in NNE, mixed bag down here, but the cold drains down. Really weak sauce system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Right now the key is getting the cold to drain south, That's all i care about this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Is this a good gradient look for up here? How accurate are the snips? Feb 1969. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 GGEM going flatter too....could get icy next week if we see that PV lobe whiff on the phase with the western trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 22 minutes ago, weathafella said: That the euro? Pretty optimistic and let’s hope it’s right! To complete the picture here is CFS. Kind of a middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Nice gradient pattern on the cmc and Gfs for new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Feb 1969. Thanks. Not sure how accurate the snips are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Would be nice for something to go right. I'll day the CJ look it has for a day after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Suggest folks make preps this weekend for extended outages late week into next weekend. It’s coming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Suggest folks make preps this weekend for extended outages late week into next weekend. It’s coming. Might be a lil much at this point....throttle back pal. We've got plenty of time to make Preps if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Suggest folks make preps this weekend for extended outages late week into next weekend. It’s coming. I'll take my chances on either a frigid rain or more sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Cold rain here and 70s in DC next Friday aftn, On Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 The GFS just keeps throwing precip at us for 6+ days....I just ended January with 6+ inches of liquid and 3 inches of snow, I know which way it will trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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